Originally Posted by
TOGA LK
From my understanding Horizon was being rebranded as a connection carrier, losing their jets and other feed operators would step in with CRJ's. Just seems like a strange move for an airline with a niche market and a desire to stand alone. Just a hunch, but it seems like Alaska wants the RJ's off their books; whether that desire is internal or external remains to be determined.
Alaska would bring a stronger west coast presence, Hawaiian, Mexico and Canadian flying to LUV. At the same time this would pull the rug out from under AA and DAL on the west coast. After LUV targeted DAL in ATL such a move would only make sense, especially when considering the point to point flying Alaska performs.
I'm not so sure if the purchase of Air Tran wasn't simply to take another LCC off the map and better align LUV against the big 3. The next five years should be some of the most interesting in history.
I'm probably way off.
That all sounds reasonable to me. In fact, I traded ALK stock precisely on the notion it would fit very nicely in more than one airline's network. I did the same with AAI, for a smaller amount. I sold the AAI at $7.47, but I also got rid of the ALK at $61.47. My reasoning is that ALK has been talked up significantly, precisely because
everyone expects it to be purchased, but "everyone" includes Anderson. I don't know the details of our agreement, and I wouldn't overestimate the obstacle a break-up fee would represent, but it's not as simple as that for LUV or AMR. I don't know if it's smart for LUV to accomplish another merger right on the heels of AAI, and I'm not sure how much cash AMR would burn in a meregr, or if they even have the appetitie for one right now. Let's not forget that, at some point, the DOT/DOJ is going to shut one down. LUV/ALK perhaps doesn't have a lot of overlap, but it seems the DOJ favors airlines with a big presence in ORD, for some strange reason.
I think it's entirely possible ALK remains the gorgeous virgin princess that remains continously engaged to us, accepts presents from other suitors, but noone ever gets to consume a marriage with. With LCC being the remaining large piece, and with speculation Parker might be willing to sell in pieces, I think the industry will find someone willing to put out, with multiple partners.