In the 1960s, UAL was hiring high school students with a PPL.

There is already a shortage now. 2 years ago 747-400 PICs got $16K/month in China. Now $22K, and the $16K salary is reserved for Airbus capts. ERJ-145 Capts get $12K/month.

Colgan IS having trouble filling classes. ALL the regionals have reduced their mins. Our mins were 4000TT and 1000 PIC Jet. After about 3 or 4 months it dropped to 2500 TT and 1000 Turbine TT.

I just talked to a SkyWest Capt, and he said they were having no problems NOW, but that was going to change soon. He said his buddy is a FltInstr, and pretty much every FltInstr he new was training foreign students-no US students.

The Flight/Duty/Rest rules will be in effect before 1 Aug, and the ATP requirement in effect by 1 Aug 2012.

DAL has 900 pilots retiring in one calendar year....may have to move the age to 70, or get rid of it.

I am almost certain that the major airlines will have to start an Ab-Initio type of hiring/training, just like the US mil and most of the foreign airlines have. Here in the US (and Canada/Australia), we have supplied the world with pilots for a LOT of years. That will soon be coming to an end. Probably a LOT of flying will move to mainline, because there won't be enough Regional pilots, and the Ab-Initio programs required will be too expensive for them. If you were a typical HS kid, would you rather to Ab-Initio for UAL, or for Trans States?

cliff
AMS
PS-I didn't even realize how bad the situation is at some of the airlines now!!!