Originally Posted by
stoki
The regionals JUST started hiring again after almost 3 years of cutting capacity, furloughing, no hiring at all levels etc. etc. 3 years worth of CFIs, and new CPLs issued of kids dieing to get into the regionals.. on top of the ones who didn't make it in the last wave, or started training in that time.
Some places haven't even brought their furloughs back yet.
And ALREADY there are talks on here about a pilot shortage.. oo yea... it's coming..... really this time... not like last time... or the time before that time..
Bring yourselves back down to earth.
I think that THIS time the numbers and demographics are undeniable...
- Retirements are what they are, and are not going to change again (no age 70)
- GA and training starts are WAAAY down...there are several reasons behind this and no single fix will solve al of them (no financing available, loss of interest in the profession due to lowered compensation and QOL, high fuel costs, etc). This part of the equation is in such bad shape that when the crunch really hits the airlines may have no choice but to start up their own ab-initio programs, the way they do in other countries.
- Military pilots are losing interest in airlines. You will still get a few initial-obligation guys, but nobody that I know in my peer group (post-retirement-eligible officers) has the slightest interest. They are all going for management jobs and/or staying in to 30. Or like USMCFlyer looking to non-airline aviation opportunities.
- Also there really IS a shortage globally, that is going to siphon off some percentage of qualified US pilots. The global shortage is only going to get worse too...as wages go up due to demand, more US pilots will be lured away.
Of course this all applies only as long as fuel prices are reasonable...