I personaly think that a pilot shortage is coming. I wouldn't say it's going to be crazy enough as to reach the majors (at least the good ones), but at the regional level, it will defenetely hit. Remember majors can drop their mins to 1000hrs jet (no PIC), or even 500 jet and they'll receive massive numbers of applicants. (Off course this would empty regionals).

Now, if things get real crazy there's the possibility that airlines start doing what airlines in Asia/Middle East are doing: outsourcing to foreign pilots. They basically go to these crew personnel companies and ask for specific typed rated pilots. They pay these companies for the pilots and not sign a contract directly with the pilot or pay the pilot directly. They get the temporary U.S. work permit and when they're through with them (i.e. another downturn comes) they just "return" these pilots.

It sounds like a major ALPA bypass, but remember that the U.S. government will always lean towards "corporations stability" and not towards unions.

Regionals will lobby in the senate and say "it's more important to keep the air transport running than shutting down or filling for chap.11". "We just need to bring foreign pilots to temporary fill the gap of new pilots". "They won't be taking any amercian jobs" (pure B.S. off course)

I know many people here won't like my post, but ALPA has lost a lot of it's bargain power.

I wouldn't doubt that we'll see foreign pilots flying in U.S. companies before seeing regional FOs making 60K/year. (very sad)