Originally Posted by
acl65pilot
Do not count you chickens before they hatch.
Crude is bought and traded on margins. When, not if, interest rates are raised, the price of crude will drop significantly. I suspect we will see 100 dollar per bbl oil though summer and when the Fed Raises interest rates in the second half of the year, oil will trend downward. My guess is 60-72 per bbl. If I were a smart man I would not be hedging right now.
I'd not be surprised to see $100 by 4pm and a close in the high 90s. If $4 was the breaking point in a roaring economy in 2006-2007 and slowing in 2008 then my bet $3.50 is the breaking point tbis time. I doubt you'll see $3.50+ before supply far exceeds demand and price falls. If Saudi collapses or Egypt gets worse and sabatoge becomes the norm then hello $5. Thank goodness for the drilling moritorium and anwar activist.