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Old 03-07-2011 | 01:14 PM
  #61011  
Razorback flyer's Avatar
Razorback flyer
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Joined: May 2008
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From: Uncoveraged...
Default oil, and other related and unrelated topics

I think this is pretty good info on the oil Market:

"Managed money accounts on the NYMEX own a record 268,622 contracts (i.e. 269 MMbbls) of WTI crude oil. The storage capacity at the NYMEX hub in Cushing, OK is only around 45 MMbbls. In other words, speculators own nearly 6× the capacity currently available at Cushing. It does not get any clearer which way Wall Street is trying to take oil.

Bottom line, NYMEX WTI aside, light sweet crude oils (e.g. LLS, Brent, and Bonny Light) are trading comfortably above $115 a barrel. At this level retail gasoline works out to around $3.70 a gallon. The national average for gasoline as of last Monday was $3.39 a gallon. Thus, at the current rate Americans face the prospect of another 30 cent increase at the pump this summer.

We know from recent history that demand inelasticity, be it in the U.S., Europe and yes, even China, begin to wane at these retail prices."

Other info:
CVG pireps feb newsletter stated that we were projecting a $1.5B profit this year, and that was with oil at $90, and the crack spread on jet fuel another $25 on top of that. The spike would have to be not only extremley steep, but protracted to wipe that out. Not saying that can't happen, but fundamentals certainly don't support it without something extreme happening.

Unrelated:
JG flt ops 411 this week talked more about the RFP, and stated they are looking at "anything and everything" that might fit our network needs in the future. This included Boeing, Airbus, Embraer, Bombardier (specifically mentioned C-series,) as well the new Russian, Japanese, and Chinese jets.

Last edited by Razorback flyer; 03-07-2011 at 01:17 PM. Reason: compulsion...