If upgrade is solely based on growth, there aren't that many more Qs on the horizon. Certainly not enough for a new hire to move up 1200-1500 slots. You could be an FO for a long time (which is why everyone should include long term FO QOL in their "who do I sign with" decision)

If upgrade is based on attrition, and the much hoped for 65 retirees, who knows. Maybe 3 years, maybe 4 to 6 years depending on how many actually retire.