It's hard to judge upgrade time at any airline. You cannot predict the future, especially of an airline. Right now I think the people upgrading have been around for about 3-4 years (some are bypassing). New hires from my class just a few months ago that got based in CLE never even sat reserve and are holding a line with 14 days off. With the new planes coming and continued attrition, people are going to keep upgrading and that time is going to keep going down and down. At the current rate, it could go down to as little as a year (scary, I know) or it could just stop right where it is and go up to 5+. Who knows. Always plan for the worst, hope for the best, but really, expect the worst :-D