Originally Posted by ALPO Whisperer

The difference to watch between what's happening now and back when NK gave back 7 jets is the rate at which oil continues to climb. If it's a slow climb, with sustained levels above $120/barrel, I would expect to see a lot of pain throughout the industry. Spirit would be in a very diifficult position because of its small size, minimal cash reserves, lack of credit, and inability to raise fares/fees without destroying their customer base.

In 2008, oil rose at a rapid pace due to world-wide supply fears. It quickly collapsed with the ensuing financial crisis and sharp reduction in demand. This time around, oil prices are increasing because of fear and uncertainty with events in the Middle East. Don't expect it to collapse near as much as it did after the financial crisis fallout. IOW, even if the fear subsides, there's enough demand in the "so called world-wide recovery" to sustain oil at a fairly high level.

I do expect Spirit and other airlines to cut capacity soon. For some airlines, that means curtailing growth and riding out the storm for a while with a plan to conserve cash. For Spirit, the thing that concerns me most is that I keep hearing they have every intention of riding out the fear worries. They may decide to react when its too late. Personally, I'd rather see them take the steps now to prevent the almost certain cash hemorraging. It's shaping up to be an interesting Spring/Summer once again.

Like the ol' man says..."Son, if the man upstairs wanted us to fly, he would've given us wings!"