There were about 550 flowthru's with AA seniority numbers, but perhaps 50 declined during the "flow or not" window as per Nicolau's ruling, leaving about 500. The top (and all numbers here are approximate) half have seniority thousands to hundreds above the most junior native AA pilot and they will complete their flow by end of May.

That leaves about 250 flowthru's with AA numbers who are JUNIOR to every AA furloughee (basically stapled from the bottom of the most junior AA furloughee), so after AA makes its pass through all furloughees (first class for June has already been awarded), THEN they'll make class offers to this group of about 250 and THEN hire off the street (or mix 50/50 with another 824 Eagle captains IF that provision in Nicolau's award/remedy remains).

This last group of 250 (or so) start at first year pay and are at the very bottom, so unlike the senior group who got some pay and B-fund credit, many of these pilots might pass on shooting craps at AA, UNLESS things really go downhill at Eagle (which looks more likely every day). I'm told 1200 furloughees out there waiting for that first recall offer and I've heard the 1 for about every 5 calls, so that's about 250 out of the 1200. Personally, I think the recall acceptance rate will increase and result in perhaps 450-500 of these pilots accepting, but that's just a gut guess.

It means, in all likelyhood AA will have to go through bringing about 500-750 pilots through these channels before street hires and how long that takes depends on what's up AMR's sleeve and how many of these pilots come to (or come back to) AA. I'd think the earliest for street hires would be about a year. The key to look for as far as a heads up a few months in advance is an announcement for an application window, then you'll know AA is getting close to street hiring.