Originally Posted by Boomer

Stating the obvious, the number of upgrades will roughly equal the amount of Captains that leave.

Lets say all the majors (combined) hire 20 CommutAir pilots and 300 Xjet/ASA pilots a year.

In 5 years the bottom guy at CommutAir has moved up to number 50 and is already logging PIC. The bottom guy at XJet is only number 2700 and still roughly two years from upgrade.

So you have to ask... is 20/year a reasonable number for Commutair attrition? Is 300/year a reasonable number for XJet attrition?

Looking at it a different way - if Commutair wins flying and adds 10 aircraft, almost everyone on the list gets to upgrade.

If XJet gets 10 aircraft, less than 3% of the first officers upgrade.

It's all luck anyway, but that's how I would be looking at it if my goal was to get to a major.