Originally Posted by
JetJock16
Not that I agree much with HMP but she's actually right and it is still the Vietnam era pilots. They make up over 30% of the industry and will be forced to retire my 2011. Yes, right now there isn't a shortage, but with commercial aviation training diminishing, military pilots are diminishing as well as choosing to make the military a career and with over 30% of the industry retiring by 2011 there probably will be a shortage. By 2011 most of the current regional pilots that want to and are qualified to move on will move on and that will leave the regionals fighting for pilots. And don't say they won't because they are now and it will be worse in 5 years.
Yes, there are a number of furloughed pilots (they will be recalled or go somewhere else) and major airline routes may reduce with the mergers and buyouts, but when you run the numbers all signs point to a bright future. The US Airline industry is current running at a record 83% capacity nation wide. That doesn’t leave much room for reduction!
There is some cause for optimisim, but I guess I'm cautious and don't want to get too excited. The not-so-optimistic view...
The high load factors don't help much in the long run if airlines are selling seats below cost, which they are in many cases. Selling seats below cost is a loss-reduction tactic, not a profit-making tactic. What has happened is we now have "customers" who are attracted by ludicrously low fares who would not or could not afford to pay a realistic fare to fly...they are only here to take advantage of a smokin' deal while it lasts.
What probably has to happen is consolidation of 4 -6 majors, which would reduce capacity and allow airlines to charge what their services are worth. The trailer-park crowd would probably not be able to afford to fly (except where SWA provides service).
If I'm wrong, we'll all be in great shape and the beer's on me
