Originally Posted by
freightguy
You are speculating that the 1500 hr could lead to 'multi crew licensing'. The whole purpose of 1500hr ruling is to have pilots with real life experiences in the airler cockpits. MPL ttally goes against that concept. Have you listened to the congressional hearings following the Colgan crash? It is easier to increase required qualifications than to decrease it. Politicians definitely won't like getting a deadly crash blamed on their policy. The 1500hr requirement definitely does not eliminate pilots with self gained experience. I and many thousands of pilots joined airliners with thousands of hours of 'self-gained-experience'.
AMA has curbed the doctor supply pretty good. My neighbour had to wait 2 months to see an Oncologist recently to rule out a potential cancer condition. By the time he finally got to see him, the situation moved to stage 4. I don't see the congress stepping in to increase doctor supply.
In the worst case, look at what we have right now. Puppy mills like like ATP, ERAU, American Flyers etc....250 hrs from zero to hero. If you look at the few countries where MPL is being proposed, you'll see that MPL is a more time consuming and expensive process compared to the current 250 hr deal. So MPL is not the going to break the pilot leverage.
If you think 1500hr is going to get airliners scrambling for MPL, what makes you think 500hr rule does not?
The 1500hr rule should be used to gain maximum leverage....we will fight MPL later if and when it comes to that. Last time we negotiated pay away for pensions, we not only lost 40% pay....they still furloughed and cut away pension. We should never again negotiate away a single thing we have for a future promise or threat.
Just where are new guys supposed to get 1500 hours anyway? Another issue is that times have changed some for new pilots. We are loosing our GA layer. I was the lowest time guy in my regional class with 3800 hours. Today however we do not have as many piston cargo jobs and instructing is drying up fast. New pilots are going to have a hard time reaching 1500 hours
I flew with plenty of guys from Europe who started at their career airline with zero time. The military does essentially the same thing. In less than a decade the average middle class college student will not be able to afford to pay for their own training. The airlines will step in with an exemption from congress to start their own cadet program like they have overseas.
I wish I could share your enthusiasm but I just can not see how our situation is going to reverse itself. Along with the regionals taking the domestic market and low cost carriers dividing up the rest there are even bigger threats on the horizon. In short if you are in your 30's you could have as long as 30 more years in the profession. That is a long time for it to get much worse.
Don't quit your side job. I might just save you one day.
Skyhigh