Even under a scenario in which the regionals take over the 90-120 seat market in the U.S. the majors will still need to hire to replace retiring pilots, although at a reduced rate. If pilots are flowing out of the system faster than they are coming in, and all that is happening is a shuffling of flying rather than a reduction, then there will be a shortage. Although many doubt a shortage, the fact that the regionals are currently having issues attracting qualified applicants after a two+ year dry spell suggests that a serious shortage is looming. The only question is just how severe it will be.

My guess is we will see upward pressure on wages in the years to come. It will never go back to what it was in the late '90s. The pendulum swung too far, and then it swung too far in the other extreme. It is starting to swing back.

There are many challenges ahead, and we are not out of the woods yet. Hardly, with oil nearing $110/barrel. But it is going to be a remarkably different industry in just the next 5 years, and 10 years from now it may be hardly recognizable compared to today.