Originally Posted by
TrojanCMH
I hope the Frontier guys do keep fighting and dragging this out as long as possible. With the financial failure of the branded ops and gas prices hovering at an unsustainable price it's just a matter of time before bankruptcy and or another sell off occur. I'd much rather be separate when Bedford decides to shed the ball and chain that is Frontier and when that happens we will all be able to go on about our careers. I got no hard feelings towards our Frontier bros.
Originally Posted by
sticky
you are not going with the airplanes to the buyer. careful what you wish for. that is all.
Here's some good reading material (really!):
http://tinyurl.com/3vneyb3
Especially these:
and
Interesting to see where the JetBlue EMB190 CASM resides and also the Frontier CASMs. The PDF is very long, but also quite informative.
I think a key bit of information is the fact that, although the gap is narrowing, Domestic CASMs for Legacy carriers continue to be relatively higher (10% or more) than the "Value" or LCC carriers. By the nature of the Legacy business, they just won't ever be able to reduce domestic CASMs to compete effectively in the US domestic market. Of course, this is somewhat mitigated by the fact that the international market is the golden egg for the legacy carriers.
So, as time passes, what do the legacy carriers do about their domestic business? Outsource more flying to the regionals? Maybe, but only if the regionals are flying larger (100 seat and UP) aircraft and what are the chances of that happening? Really? OR maybe they decide to start ceding the domestic business to the LCC's to focus almost exclusively on the international market. Sounds stupid, right? Not if they code share with the lower cost LCC's in the US.
This may well be what the future ends up looking like. Chances are probably pretty slim that Frontier is around to see it and also somewhat slim that regional airlines maintain the fleet numbers they currently enjoy. If this is the future then this is what happens (IMO):
Mainline domestic capacity shrinks
LCC domestic capacity grows
Regional capacity shrinks
Basically, LCC CASMs are lower than Legacy CASMs which are lower than regional CASMs. At some point the reality of this equation will be reflected in the makeup of the US airline industry.
Now, of course, I could be totally full of $h!+! But if anything close to this happens then you better "be careful what you ask for." So regardless of whether branded fails or BB cuts F9 loose to fail, and that either of those would be good for all ya'alls (did I spell that right?) job prospects, I'm not so sure. Certainly wouldn't be good for ours in the Airbus, but man I wouldn't want to be counting on a stable career at RAH after a branded implosion. I think BB understands this. His only hope is to use the FFDbucks to support the mainline operation and bring it back to a level of health where it can be released as a viable entity to compete in the new world order of the US domestic market. That is where the opportunities are going to be. Lower cost competition (not necessarily labor) always eventually wins out in every industry. Unfortunately, RJs and not with legacy narrowbody jobs might be the most endangered pilot jobs of the future.
So, again, be careful what you wish for. BB is setting something up to capitalize on the changes ahead (if possible) and small-jets are not part of the master plan. They're useful now as milking cows, but not for that many more years.
DISCLAIMER: This is only my opinion. I do not wish negative consequences for anybody's job, be it legacy, LCC, or regional. SO feel free to tell me I'm an idiot, but please don't come at me for "wishing harm" on anyone. I'm not. Just bringing up what I think the future might have in hold for us all.