The 18-24 month upgrade is never going to happen.

That advertisement first came out about 6 months ago. So anyone hired under that assumption will obviously be behind everyone on property 6 months ago. So that means they have 12 months to upgrade 250+ FO's that were already on property to hit the 18 month number before the first guy hired being told that, sees an upgrade. They would need to start upgrading 20 a month now for that to happen, and guess what, not happening.

Everyone keeps saying there's 20+ per month in new hire classes yet the pay day hotline from ALPO clearly shows that half of them are forced to resign.

Junior mans everyday. For everyone. Help out or get an unavailable. "If you don't do this the flight will cancel, blah blah"

Not happening till it does happen. The big bonus money is actually attracting much higher quality applicants. This straight from someone who does interviews. They also have 26k reasons to pass ioe. You'll begin seeing less washouts. If 40 a month get through and a dozen flat out quit, you're still up.

How is Republic going to grow in the future all 175 carrier and every major scoped out. Awac has the cash to buy more planes within scope limits and high bonus will attract the crews.

Except you missed the point. It's not currently happening and won't happen for anyone hired this month or even in the next few months. There's 250+ FO's ahead of everyone hired now. A lot going on 3+ years as an FO.

They are going to fly their -200s until the wings fall off and find a company in some middle of nowhere town to put new ones back on and sign the plane off for another decade.

Fact is some will likely get lucky enough to be hired and upgrade in or around the 18 to 24 month mark. Just cause it's been stagnant for the past 2 years doesn't mean that trend will continue.

Piedmont went from 8 year upgrade to 5 to 2 to street captains in the span of a year. AWAC is a famously good place to work for, and I'd go there twice before anyone else (at the regional level) if I wasn't at a wholly owned.

Union projections concur with this mostly. Our attrition (except for last month) is very high. I think a new hire could expect roughly a 7-8 year flow. Or they can upgrade here in less than a year (if they have the required times) and apply everywhere else they want and get to a legacy a lot faster. In the meantime pilots can enjoy every holiday and important family event off and build their schedule any way they want.

What is the normal monthly attrition?

It varies month by month...

In 2016 we lost a little over 220 total pilots from our seniority list. And we lost over 100 active pilots from the seniority list. Active pilots are those who actively bid and fly lines. That was when we were about a 1,000 pilot airline. So roughly 20% turnover in a year.

2017 looks to be about the same if not a little more. So we do hire about 40-50 /month but the high attrition PSA experiences leads to fairly rapid movement up the seniority list.