If you include the May 1st canceled bid it’s about 20 more in either bracket. So 380 to 350, all of which would be downgraded 10/1/20 on current modeling. Company run number was exactly 387.

30 A320 gone for certain... that’s 180 A320 Captain positions... I guess we will see where the chips fall from there. Looks like a well played hand by the company, while still complying with the rules of the federal aid package.

With a fleet count of 180 and no appetite from management for early outs the furlough line will be far deeper then April 2018, your looking at at least 1000+ furloughs in the 180 aircraft scenario, we haven’t hired close to that since April 18.

I think it will all be fine. Things change quick when this many minds are working toward a problem (covid), and I don’t think the economy will support being shut down forever, or even into summer.

This is a doomsday model that OTZ is throwing around and pretty far out that I think it’s inaccurate and changing frequently. All he’s doing is making people afraid when the information is just speculation.

180 was the minimum they thought they needed. With work rules reductions under furlough, probable 725 would be put on in voluntary leaves.

Company model is for 207 aircraft. Add the furlough rules, and some fat for single fleet and the Max aircraft adds over the next 12 mos and you are there.

April 2018

We will be smaller, my numbers are not doomsday. They are real numbers, the likely outcome. 600-200 furloughs is the zone. 380ish I would bet. Hoping for the best though, something good could happen, not usually in a recession though.

the modeling this fall is 207 aircraft with 62% load factors

Question for Boeing drivers. How long is the upgrade training from Boeing FO to Boeing CA?


Bus Captain here, if I'm downgraded I'm either Airbus FO or Boeing FO. Would it better to go Boeing FO now and then way later whenever the upgrade opportunity comes, taking Boeing CA? Or downgrade to Airbus FO (which I think is 3 sims and a PC) and then stick it out until able to hold Boeing CA and just go through one big training cycle once?

Five weeks from first day of ground school and getting signed off of OE. It is very quick.

Honestly, I can't answer your other question. Of course, all of that depends on what you want your QOL to be like. Would it be better on the Airbus or the Boeing?

So we will get our “2000 by 2010” just ten years late and going in the wrong direction

Isn’t it the entire 3 mos. course if you’re transitioning from Bus to Boeing? It’s a whole new type. The 5 week program is for already typed FO’s upgrading. At least that’s what I’ve been told by guys who’ve transition from Bus to Boeing.

5 weeks sounds like a lot, but I guess that matches even Airbus FO to Bus CA timeline.

I think the "least" amount of training time away from home would be to just downgrade to the Airbus, and then when it comes time to upgrade again, take it on the Boeing and make one 3 month training event. As opposed to 3 month type rating now and then another 5 week upgrade cycle down the road.