Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 3110519)
You don't declare BK when you have 0 cash on hand. I believe the number is about 1 billion remaining. That is when declare BK.
9mike is correct. The assumption was 50% by December and 80% by next summer. It's starting to look very unlikely that's happening. Even with a vaccine you have 1 in 3 Americans saying they ain't gonna take it. Fauci says 2/3 vaccinated (and that already assumes 100% effectiveness which it won't be), is still not going to be enough to achieve herd immunity. I hate to be the sky is falling type person but if there was ever one scenario where the sky is falling and we're all hosed, this would be it. |
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 3110519)
You don't declare BK when you have 0 cash on hand. I believe the number is about 1 billion remaining. That is when declare BK.
9mike is correct. The assumption was 50% by December and 80% by next summer. It's starting to look very unlikely that's happening. Even with a vaccine you have 1 in 3 Americans saying they ain't gonna take it. Fauci says 2/3 vaccinated (and that already assumes 100% effectiveness which it won't be), is still not going to be enough to achieve herd immunity. I hate to be the sky is falling type person but if there was ever one scenario where the sky is falling and we're all hosed, this would be it. |
Originally Posted by ELAC321
(Post 3110531)
Total cash on hand has no bearing on when to declare bankruptcy. It's about solvency and many other factors. Not sure where "I believe the number is about 1 billion remaining. That is when declare BK." came from.
Straight from the top. Watch the videos. |
Most of this is fear mongering and nonsense. We are not going bankrupt. The F/A play was about, “ease of use and dollars in play.” Some of the 400 will be immediately recalled. It honestly looks like we will be very near cash burn zero by the first of the year. I think CARES II will happen, if not AAL sets into bankruptcy port, 6 months from now. Company will ask for all kinds of things in the coming months, we just need to drag our feet and give them nothing. Right now summer of 2022, 252 narrow body aircraft.
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The stock price and the stock market are completely disconnected from economic reality. A half wit vaccine and the coming pro-regressive elections will not fix the free-falling economy. Add to that, we are back to competing with the automobile/small frame motorhomes for leisure travel....Former airline passengers are going to stay away from flying not out of fear but because they are out of patience with the hysteria that surrounds air travel. All of the asinine surveys that show pax like the mask are coming from 75% of the 30% who are traveling. Lots of people are discovering how good it is to jump on the road and make the trip part of the experience.....I think we will never make it to cash burn zero. They may plug most of the leaks but we will still be slowly sinking
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Stock Market Trends
Originally Posted by 9mikemike
(Post 3110560)
The ... stock market (is) completely disconnected from economic reality.
This is not “oh, the markets went up today because the sun was shinning” and “oh, the markets went down because my wife frowned at me.” These are what the talking heads of the media and the news articles say. This is not the long term perspective on the markets. The stock market has always been forward looking in the past, it is forward looking today, and always will be forward looking in the future. The economy can be in the tank today, the markets are more optimistic for the economy as a whole 6 to 30 months out. In the long term, stock market is a leading economic indicator. Sales is a coincidental economic indicator. Unemployment is a lagging economic indicator. You can “take this to the bank”. |
Originally Posted by TransWorld
(Post 3110741)
I am not an expert in investments, but my investments management firm (who has consistently beaten the markets averages for decades) and others I read are. The stock market, aside from day to day ups and downs, is forward looking. It says where investors think the economy will be 6 to 30 months from now.
This is not “oh, the markets went up today because the sun was shinning” and “oh, the markets went down because my wife frowned at me.” These are what the talking heads of the media and the news articles say. This is not the long term perspective on the markets. The stock market has always been forward looking in the past, it is forward looking today, and always will be forward looking in the future. The economy can be in the tank today, the markets are more optimistic for the economy as a whole 6 to 30 months out. In the long term, stock market is a leading economic indicator. Sales is a coincidental economic indicator. Unemployment is a lagging economic indicator. You can “take this to the bank”. Come on lets get real. This entire stock market rally is based on the liquid back stop the Feds have provided. If the Feds never bought the bonds and pumped a trillion+ to float this stock market, the crash would have continued from 18,300 down to about 7,000. THAT is where the stock market should be. If tonight the Feds announced they're ending all backstop, buying of bonds, pulling all support out of the market, the circuit breakers will be tripping in a heartbeat. The Feds even hinted that if buying bonds isn't enough they'll even start buying certain stocks if that's what it takes. It would be a zombie market, as Mohamad El-Erian said. |
Originally Posted by ShyGuy
(Post 3110875)
Come on lets get real. This entire stock market rally is based on the liquid back stop the Feds have provided. If the Feds never bought the bonds and pumped a trillion+ to float this stock market, the crash would have continued from 18,300 down to about 7,000. THAT is where the stock market should be. If tonight the Feds announced they're ending all backstop, buying of bonds, pulling all support out of the market, the circuit breakers will be tripping in a heartbeat. The Feds even hinted that if buying bonds isn't enough they'll even start buying certain stocks if that's what it takes. It would be a zombie market, as Mohamad El-Erian said.
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Four Stages of a Bull Market
Sir John Templeton, famously said, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria."
We are in the skepticism stage. You’re opinion is proof. |
Originally Posted by TransWorld
(Post 3110994)
Sir John Templeton, famously said, "Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria."
We are in the skepticism stage. You’re opinion is proof. an airline pilot. |
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