I considered that as well but C. L. addressed this in the latest PTT podcast. The pilots needed to staff the delayed fourteen 787s are already accounted for in June vacancy award. So the incoming wide bodies won’t be moving the needle at all. How this is happening I don’t know but there must be 777 retirements coming soon. Shrinking is the only explanation I can think of.

I hadn’t listened to the latest PTT podcast yet

Look at total widebody aircraft as a percentage of total aircraft compared to the rest of the industry. UAL probably has twice as many Group 4 aircraft. More concerning is the fact that we seem to have no long term international strategy. We start and cancel routes on a whim. Our 777 fleet is at risk of being parked. Isom is going to be laser focused on costs while UAL and DAL compete for international market share.

A lot of senior FOs at Delta can make as much or more than junior Captains. They don’t need to upgrade for a pay raise. AAL is becoming a massive regional.

it would be interesting to see our utilization rate vs other airlines. I wouldn’t be surprised if our WB acft spend a lot more time on the ground.

Here we go…

AA retirement of the 300/75/76 sounds like a lot, but it is only 10% of the A/C and perhaps 15% of the seats.

78 replacement is on order to replace the retired WB seats, but if international ramps up quickly, AA will be behind the curve.

The MAX replacement is on order to replace the NB seats (including the Mad Dogs and some of the oldest 73/320). But delivery will be behind the curve.

But hiring of pilots, at record numbers, is even further behind the curve.

In a few years, the A/C and seats will look better, as will the pilots. Retirements will be still going like gangbusters, and will need large hiring numbers for the rest of the decade. That is the lay of the land.

It's mainly for Delta yes. It does however have a graph in there comparing AA UA and DL. The difference in seniority now is about 6 years between AA and DL to reach 50% seniority all things being equal. UA is in between at 3 years longer than AA to reach 50% seniority...again all things being equal. I'd finish at less than 5% here, just over 10% at DL. About the same at AA as at UA.

As an aside. Would it not be so much better if the seniority was for the pilot group nationally and we could just live where we wanted and work for any of the companies flying our fleet. Then we could focus on literally anything besides forecasting and gambling? Just a lot of BS that doesn't serve pilots at all imo.

According to the stats on this site United has 162 group 4 aircraft. (767-400 pays $350/hr). AAL has 112 group 4. If you include group 3 United has 200 aircraft in the Group 3&4 categories vs 112 group 3&4 at AAL. Many more widebody opportunities at UAL = quicker advancement across the airline.

Could it be that AA hasn’t hit peak retirement yet? Didn’t UA and DAL have a lot of early outs at the tops of their lists? Wouldn’t this be the reason why you see the rapid decline in WB and upgrade wait times, the need to replace those now vacant seats?

We haven’t hit peak retirements yet, but I don’t think that’s the reason behind this. This dynamic has existed for the last 7 years. AAL lags DAL and UAL on NB CA and WB FO juniority.