2019/2020 base opportunities/movement
 

Actually mid Nov 2018 to mid Nov 2019 and mid 2020 but it is close enough.

Base (current size) CA/FO retirements

2019 2020

BOS - 260 4/2 10/1

CLT - 1453 78/11 78/20

DCA - 541 18/2 26/1

DFW - 2933 84/27 111/44

LAX - 1888 44/13 64/16

LGA - 1352 26/2 34/5

MIA - 2185 40/3 72/13

ORD - 1031 32/9 30/11

PHL - 1308 73/12 61/11

PHX - 709 26/4 28/5


Lots of retirements which, overall, should provide opportunity to get to the base of your choice. And overall the pace of opportunity should accelerate as retirements increase. The next 8 yrs (2019-2026) are - (all +) - 600, 700, 800, 800, 900, 900, 900, 900.

Ord is shrinking ?
1000 some pilots only

ORD manning took the biggest hit post 9/11. That was reported about 7-10 years ago. APA Status 15 report has the data. ORD Manning has been constant for the last 5 (+/-) years.

BOS - 6.5%

CLT - 12.8%

DCA - 8.6%

DFW - 9%

LAX - 7%

LGA - 5%

MIA - 5.8%

ORD - 8%

PHL - 12%

PHX - 9%

Thru mid 2020

So on another forum some guys speculated that the manning at places like CLT and PHL is being allowed to dwindle through attrition on the airbus side in order to potentially make room for a 737 base. I know the company has said they have no plans in the short term for that. Still, though, for a new guy who doesn't know, what would be the potential effect of this and how would it impact pilots trying to go there? Would some people there bid over from the bus to the 73? New 737 pilots come in? For an airbus guy at a different base trying to get in, would that be a good thing/bad thing? Just trying to get an idea how these things play out.

From HF class this week - numbers are current from 12 Nov:

Years/retirements
2/1338
5/3809
10/8331



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I'm on the airbus and many of the captains I fly with have flown the 737. Most of them say there is no way they are going back. Some say they'd rather commute to the AB. I'd guess the 737 would be quite a bit junior to the airbus if they brought them in. One of the VPs just released his annual forecast and it discussed fleet movement, but nothing about opening new 737 bases.

The million dollar question is how many active pilots do management expect to have on property in 2/5/10 years. I wonder if they are counting on the new Embraer product and overseas Joint Venture agreements to ease their retirement strains. Parker likes to farm out flying to cheaper vendors. Clearly he doesn’t care about controlling the product.

737 is weak sauce

Sherpa - thanks for posting the percentages.