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Old 12-03-2018, 07:35 AM   #21  
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Obviously guys are very interested in trying to make the best decision today for what the world will be like 3-4 months after they get hired. If someone wants LAX/LGA/MIA/PHL, and they're not super junior in their class, they can get the base. PHX/DCA/UDC/BOS awards for March went to guys hired in September 2018. Six months, including about three months in training and IOE. So they commuted for three months to reserve before moving to the next best base.

The only options not available to a six month LOS guy right now are ORD/DFW/CLT. The junior award for a March transfer to DFW on the Airbus went to a guy hired 11 months earlier(April 2018). The junior 737 guy took 14 months(Jan 2018 new hire).

Trying to make the 'perfect' decision for a manning decision 11-14 months after you got hired is impossible. And then trying to look 6-12 months later to see what lines you'd be able to hold? We can view what's happening today, and make a judgement assuming the future is the same as it is today, but there's zero confidence in that happening.

A fleet planning chart I just looked at (hopefully still current) shows AG and 737 deliveries in 2019-2021.

If you want to go to a specific base that doesn't have one fleet type I'd try to get the airplane that is based there. For BOS and ORD that's the 737. CLT, PHL and PHX is the 320.

If you think you're going to commute try to commute on line. Next try to commute on AB's(two jump seats). Four AB's flights (8 jump seats) might be better than 6 737 flights (6 jump seats).

And once you're on property you'll have several months to watch how your relative seniority, and the opportunities that develop as retirements accelerate and flying changes slightly in bases, which gives you the chance to switch to the other n/b after 9-15 months (plus up to 3 months lag for the actual award).

I tell guys to expect the first two years to perhaps be a grind if you're trying to get to X base. Right now that's ORD with CLT and DFW as the next toughest at just around a year, or slightly longer. Retirement increases in CLT (86/92 next two years) and DFW (112/156) specifically might generate more opportunities so the lag might shorten.
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Old 12-03-2018, 08:30 AM   #22  
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
Obviously guys are very interested in trying to make the best decision today for what the world will be like 3-4 months after they get hired. If someone wants LAX/LGA/MIA/PHL, and they're not super junior in their class, they can get the base. PHX/DCA/UDC/BOS awards for March went to guys hired in September 2018. Six months, including about three months in training and IOE. So they commuted for three months to reserve before moving to the next best base.

The only options not available to a six month LOS guy right now are ORD/DFW/CLT. The junior award for a March transfer to DFW on the Airbus went to a guy hired 11 months earlier(April 2018). The junior 737 guy took 14 months(Jan 2018 new hire).

Trying to make the 'perfect' decision for a manning decision 11-14 months after you got hired is impossible. And then trying to look 6-12 months later to see what lines you'd be able to hold? We can view what's happening today, and make a judgement assuming the future is the same as it is today, but there's zero confidence in that happening.

A fleet planning chart I just looked at (hopefully still current) shows AG and 737 deliveries in 2019-2021.

If you want to go to a specific base that doesn't have one fleet type I'd try to get the airplane that is based there. For BOS and ORD that's the 737. CLT, PHL and PHX is the 320.

If you think you're going to commute try to commute on line. Next try to commute on AB's(two jump seats). Four AB's flights (8 jump seats) might be better than 6 737 flights (6 jump seats).

And once you're on property you'll have several months to watch how your relative seniority, and the opportunities that develop as retirements accelerate and flying changes slightly in bases, which gives you the chance to switch to the other n/b after 9-15 months (plus up to 3 months lag for the actual award).

I tell guys to expect the first two years to perhaps be a grind if you're trying to get to X base. Right now that's ORD with CLT and DFW as the next toughest at just around a year, or slightly longer. Retirement increases in CLT (86/92 next two years) and DFW (112/156) specifically might generate more opportunities so the lag might shorten.
It's hard to imagine ORD being less than 2-2.5 years. First it shrunk, then STL closed, and now the 787 Asia flying went away and the company says they won't displace from it, they'll just let attrition/retirements fix the temporary overstaffing. Surely that will trickle down to 737 FOs looking to move up and stagnate it for longer. Between that and the ORD CAs being a little younger as a whole, I wouldn't worry about limiting yourself to the 737 to wait for ORD, it's going to be a while.
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Old 12-03-2018, 08:37 AM   #23  
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Here's how I simplify it for my buds who ask me a strategy to get into a more senior base, which is a variation on Slice's comment:
On draft day, there's no reason to sweat the airplane you choose. Your focus should be on selecting a base that makes for the most manageable commute and most manageable reserve duty. Your initial seat lock will expire well before your seniority can get you into Base X, so if you find that the Bus gets you to DFW more quickly than the 73 (or vice versa), then it's no big deal.

I even recommend to avoid the trap which is, "I want CLT, therefore I must get the Bus" or (...ORD...737). Since it will take 12 months or more, you can bid for training on the new equipment when you crack into Base X.

Freed advice....worth what you paid for.
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Old 12-03-2018, 08:45 AM   #24  
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Originally Posted by RhinoBallAuto View Post
Here's how I simplify it for my buds who ask me a strategy to get into a more senior base, which is a variation on Slice's comment:
On draft day, there's no reason to sweat the airplane you choose. Your focus should be on selecting a base that makes for the most manageable commute and most manageable reserve duty. Your initial seat lock will expire well before your seniority can get you into Base X, so if you find that the Bus gets you to DFW more quickly than the 73 (or vice versa), then it's no big deal.

I even recommend to avoid the trap which is, "I want CLT, therefore I must get the Bus" or (...ORD...737). Since it will take 12 months or more, you can bid for training on the new equipment when you crack into Base X.

Freed advice....worth what you paid for.



The problem with that is a 737 to 320 (or vice versa) bid will often get withheld for a year. If you want a base that only has one of the narrowbodies, you're better off being on the equipment they have there. The OP is specifically talking about DFW, so it doesn't matter much to him which he gets, they're both around a year for DFW. The last year or two we had more 737 deliveries, but over the next 2 years we will have more AB deliveries, for that I'd recommend the 320.

One more thing to note, if you get the 320 and are trying to figure out the easiest commute until you get DFW I would HIGHLY recommend not bidding PHL. We are currently running a bid for displacements into E-190 captain. PHL based pilots coming off probation are at risk for this. It is NOT limited to E-190 FOs.
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Old 12-03-2018, 09:15 AM   #25  
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Thanks. Any discernable difference in the trips between the two in lga?


Yep. The 73 trips is LGA are garbage. Lots of non-commutable early departures/late arrivals and plenty of EWR.

The bus has a lot more commutable trips and one leg out to the west coast type trips.
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Old 12-03-2018, 10:22 AM   #26  
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Yep. The 73 trips is LGA are garbage. Lots of non-commutable early departures/late arrivals and plenty of EWR.

The bus has a lot more commutable trips and one leg out to the west coast type trips.
September bid for guys 300, 500, and 1,000 from the bottom appeared to favor bidding the 737. Except some of that was EWR flying. EWR is tougher for a commuter.

And those AB guys had none commutable front and back trips. To have some seniority to avoid that looks like it comes to the 737 slightly sooner and they'd need to be approx. 1,000 more senior at which point the only bases that aren't available right now are ORD and CLT.
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Old 12-03-2018, 10:34 AM   #27  
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when does 3xp update again? I ask because as a guy on property about 1 year, the seniority difference between 737 and 320 LGA is minimal. I also notice there are less EWR trips on the 320 plus "I think" there is some growth planned for 320 LGA.

216 FO slots projected in May 2019 on the 737 v 206 on the 320.
216 is about what the 737 LGA had last spring but the 320 had sub 190 if my memory serves me correctly. I have been watching it because ORD looks like a pipe dream for now and I have decided LGA is the place for me and I need to decide 737 v 320 (currently on 737).
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Old 12-03-2018, 11:07 AM   #28  
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If you want ORD, go [stay on] 737.
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Old 12-03-2018, 11:21 AM   #29  
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If you want ORD, go [stay on] 737.
Commuter either way. upper 1/3 in lga or bottom guy pulling short call at ord?
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Old 12-03-2018, 11:27 AM   #30  
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when does 3xp update again? I ask because as a guy on property about 1 year, the seniority difference between 737 and 320 LGA is minimal. I also notice there are less EWR trips on the 320 plus "I think" there is some growth planned for 320 LGA.

216 FO slots projected in May 2019 on the 737 v 206 on the 320.
216 is about what the 737 LGA had last spring but the 320 had sub 190 if my memory serves me correctly. I have been watching it because ORD looks like a pipe dream for now and I have decided LGA is the place for me and I need to decide 737 v 320 (currently on 737).
Stay on the 737. Junior ORD awards are about 780 numbers senior to the guy who just hit his first year anniversary. If that rate holds constant he'd be able to hold ORD in ten months or roughly January 2020.

Sometimes the door opens and guys are able to go through the door. If you incur a 320 lock-in you'd be stuck for the next 2 years. The next opportunity for switching to the AB is the June (?) bid run. You could be incurring an 18 month delay (all +/- estimates) if you switch to the AB.
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