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Originally Posted by AAfng
(Post 2870206)
But at least you will be working 17 days and 90hrs with an all weekend schedule to make up for it. Pre-ACD it was 20 days so I guess we are making progress
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Originally Posted by Whiskey4
(Post 2870210)
Yeah...except I’m exhausted all the time now due to the optimizer building 3-4 leg days for Group 2 equipment. Ask LAX why their Hawaii trips are going junior. Maybe it’s the extra day, night, and multiple short legs added to what was once an enjoyable 2 or 3-day trip to the islands. I doubt the company would have rushed to implement ACD if it was a bust for them.
75hr lines for everyone. Pickup time if you want to |
Originally Posted by AAfng
(Post 2870271)
75hr lines for everyone. Pickup time if you want to
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Originally Posted by Whiskey4
(Post 2870210)
Yeah...except I’m exhausted all the time now due to the optimizer building 3-4 leg days for Group 2 equipment. Ask LAX why their Hawaii trips are going junior. Maybe it’s the extra day, night, and multiple short legs added to what was once an enjoyable 2 or 3-day trip to the islands. I doubt the company would have rushed to implement ACD if it was a bust for them.
With how junior group III is nowadays no one really has to fly domestic short hops if they don't want to. There were a lot of senior guys doing domestic S80 trips. Oh the horror, 3 or 4 legs? How will you survive? Fall is coming and so is a recession. The MAX deferrals were a gift from the aviation gods to Doug. |
Originally Posted by Name User
(Post 2870308)
"We don't want that flying anyway"
With how junior group III is nowadays no one really has to fly domestic short hops if they don't want to. There were a lot of senior guys doing domestic S80 trips. Oh the horror, 3 or 4 legs? How will you survive? Fall is coming and so is a recession. The MAX deferrals were a gift from the aviation gods to Doug. |
Originally Posted by 123494
(Post 2870329)
A recession is coming?
I’m no expert, and I’m sure someone else who knows more can chime in. |
Originally Posted by 123494
(Post 2870329)
A recession is coming?
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Originally Posted by 123494
(Post 2870329)
A recession is coming?
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Originally Posted by 3EngineTaxi
(Post 2870375)
Treasury bond yields inverted, with 2 year bonds paying more than 10 year bonds. Apparently, in modern history, this usually precedes a recession in the following 1-2 years or so.
I’m no expert, and I’m sure someone else who knows more can chime in. Yet the news media has picked up on this and are screaming recession, recession, recession. Remember blood and guts sells newspapers, as the old adage goes. The Fed most likely will cut overnight rates when they meet next. This will bring the 2 year rate back down below the 10 year rate. The inversion will go away. The media will have to find something else to scream about. |
Originally Posted by TransWorld
(Post 2870555)
My investment advisor and the Secretary of Commerce both stated the yield curve inversion is 1/100 of one percent. (Say 2.00% vs. 1.99%). This is hardly the inversions they have seen that leads to recession.
Yet the news media has picked up on this and are screaming recession, recession, recession. Remember blood and guts sells newspapers, as the old adage goes. The Fed most likely will cut overnight rates when they meet next. This will bring the 2 year rate back down below the 10 year rate. The inversion will go away. The media will have to find something else to scream about. |
Said the same thing in January. How have your investments done since then?
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We should be more worried that our stock closed at a 3 year low.
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Originally Posted by DarinFred
(Post 2870857)
We should be more worried that our stock closed at a 3 year low.
Assuming only $1b in annual profits... So in theory someone could buy us for $11b and get their cash back in total in six years. The market is essentially a non-believer in the company making money. |
Originally Posted by Al Czervik
(Post 2870835)
Said the same thing in January. How have your investments done since then?
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Originally Posted by TransWorld
(Post 2870555)
My investment advisor and the Secretary of Commerce both stated the yield curve inversion is 1/100 of one percent. (Say 2.00% vs. 1.99%). This is hardly the inversions they have seen that leads to recession.
Yet the news media has picked up on this and are screaming recession, recession, recession. Remember blood and guts sells newspapers, as the old adage goes. The Fed most likely will cut overnight rates when they meet next. This will bring the 2 year rate back down below the 10 year rate. The inversion will go away. The media will have to find something else to scream about. That being said, I don't believe there has ever been a modern day recession that wasn't preceded by a rise in gasoline prices. So we do have that going for us. |
Originally Posted by Al Czervik
(Post 2870835)
Said the same thing in January. How have your investments done since then?
Earlier this year we saw a rip your face off rally as people bought the dip. Yesterday we saw the 4th biggest sell off points wise in history and today nobody came in to buy. Sentiment appears to be turning. |
Originally Posted by Name User
(Post 2870869)
Well consider also that cutting rates to avoid an inversion is not a sign of a strong economy.
That being said, I don't believe there has ever been a modern day recession that wasn't preceded by a rise in gasoline prices. So we do have that going for us. |
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Wise Insight into Yield Curve vs. Economy
Here is a wise insight into the Yield Curve vs. the other Economic Indicators. Not from my investment manager, but similar insight and advice. Janet Yellen, former chair of the Federal Reserve and Wilbur Ross, the Secretary of Commerce both say the same thing.
https://www.franklintempleton.com/in...hoCD7sQAvD_BwE Historically, sharp correction drops scare the tarnation out of some investors. Then, just as suddenly, the markets go up. People who get out at the bottom of corrections miss out. The true recession shows in other economic indicators and are slow rolling tops that pick up speed going downhill after a few months. That is not something that screams over a day or two. I have learned a lot listening to wise people in the markets who consistently beat the market averages. I have learned to tune out the screaming front page news headlines. Have you noticed they are no longer screaming recession after just a couple of days? They have moved on to the next “perceived” crisis of the day. |
Originally Posted by TransWorld
(Post 2871117)
, the markets go up. People who get out at the bottom of corrections miss out.
The true recession shows in other economic indicators and are slow rolling tops that pick up speed going downhill after a few months. That is not something that screams over a day or two. . Dow tops 14,000, hits record Wall Street starts off fourth quarter with a bang, sending the blue-chip leader to all-time closing and intraday highs. By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer October 1 2007: 5:56 PM EDT NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Monday, with the Dow closing at an all-time high on bets that the big banks are starting to put the worst behind them - and on hopes that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting interest rates. The Dow Jones industrial average (Charts) added nearly 192 points to end at an all-time high of 14,087.55. Earlier in the session, the Dow had hit 14,115.51, a new record intraday high. The previous intraday high was 14,021.95 from July 19. The tech-fueled Nasdaq composite (Charts) gained 1.5 percent and carved out a new 2007 record, closing at its highest point since Feb. 2001. The broader S&P 500 (Charts) index climbed 1.3 percent. The Russell 2000 (Charts) small-cap index jumped 2.4 percent. "You're seeing a continuation of the recent momentum," said Chris Johnson, CEO of Johnson Research Group. "It becomes a psychological phenomenon," he said. "Investors know that there are inherent risks in the market, but at the same time, they're rationalizing any bad news." Wall Street was also perhaps betting that any so-called "bad news," whether it be weak bank earnings or a dip in the ISM index, means the Fed is more likely to cut interest rates again at its next policy meeting at the end of the month. Tuesday brings the August pending home sales report in the morning. |
Originally Posted by Name User
(Post 2871160)
This is an article I saved. It's a quick read. Notice the date. Anytime I read about talking heads proclaiming this or that, I remember it and what came afterward.
The simple reality is very few know what is transpiring. Mostly because there can be a turn of events that completely change the trajectory of our economy. We saw that in 2012, with the Chinese slow down, again in 2016 with both oil and Brexit leading to intense sell offs, and then in 2017 with the Trump election and tax cuts moving it the opposite way. All were events that absolutely no one could have predicted. |
Originally Posted by Buzzlightyear
(Post 2870919)
I’m down for the year. I’m mostly in cash with a little bearish bets. At this point I’m more concerned about the completion of this full cycle.
Earlier this year we saw a rip your face off rally as people bought the dip. Yesterday we saw the 4th biggest sell off points wise in history and today nobody came in to buy. Sentiment appears to be turning. The bond market has traditionally been correct as far as gauging fear. Fear is what brings on recessions. Companies start hoarding cash, or put another way, stop their capex spending. They implement a hiring freeze. The greased wheels stop spinning. Economies grow because people (and companies) feel safe to spend and invest. When they no longer feel safe, they pull back and invest in "safe" assets. That drives bond prices higher which lowers yield. I remember a crew news back in 2016. It was right after Brexit and someone asked Kirby about our stock price (it was about where it is now, albeit with a higher share count). Kirby said bookings look solid. People were still spending. It was a good gauge. What do bookings look like now? On our latest earnings call our CFO said "bookings look a little soft". So is this a temporary blip in a fear driven pull back (due to China trade issues) or something more sinister? If I were to bet, I'd bet this is temporary, with little structural issues growing. But, I've never been good at betting :D. |
1 Attachment(s)
Originally Posted by Name User
(Post 2870861)
It's actually lower than it opened the day after the merger. In 2013. With $5b in cash that leaves it at $6b left to make the gap.
Assuming only $1b in annual profits... So in theory someone could buy us for $11b and get their cash back in total in six years. The market is essentially a non-believer in the company making money. Every quarter AA issues what's called a 10Q (the annual report is a 10K). It's a summary of our financial health. Here is the section dealing with assets: https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/a...1&d=1565976608 So we have straight up cash, and short term investments which are pretty much the same thing. We also have restricted cash. Think of restricted cash as the money you keep in your checking account to make monthly bills. So roughly $5.3b in "cash". They also have a $2.8b credit card they can access, for a total of around $8b in "liquidity". Notice our total cash position has increased since last quarter. The company is planning on making a $750m contribution to the pension fund this year. This is already after over contributing this year. Now hear me out. Either they are bad at math or they are trying to goose their earnings at some point in the future. By prepaying their pension obligations now, they make the company look weaker than it is now (contract talks? I dunno). But they are essentially prepaying some massive obligations now. My thinking is in a year or two when our capex drops off a cliff they will also not have the pension contributions to make, and presto EPS shoots thru the roof (if we aren't bought by a corporate raider prior to that). That's my tinfoil hat thinking for today. |
Originally Posted by Aeirum
(Post 2871164)
Except for Matt Groening. I watch his show exclusively for future predictions.
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Originally Posted by Aeirum
(Post 2871164)
Except for Matt Groening. I watch his show exclusively for future predictions.
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Originally Posted by Aeirum
(Post 2871164)
Except for Matt Groening. I watch his show exclusively for future predictions.
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Originally Posted by Name User
(Post 2871186)
I've not heard of him, I'll have to check his stuff out.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Simpsons |
That’s it. I’m investing in the Springfield Nuclear Power Plant!
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Originally Posted by symbian simian
(Post 2871469)
I especially recommend:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Simpsons |
Glad I found this thread because I was curious myself. I’m just wondering what the average take home is monthly after tax year one?Obviously this will vary a bit but looking for a general ballpark for planning purposes.
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Originally Posted by Weekendwarrior2
(Post 2933716)
Glad I found this thread because I was curious myself. I’m just wondering what the average take home is monthly after tax year one?Obviously this will vary a bit but looking for a general ballpark for planning purposes.
Year two pay raise is different at AA than anywhere else. You won't get your raise on your hire date anniversary. It'll be on the anniversary of whenever you completed IOE. Which is usually 2.5 to 3 months after hire date. |
Originally Posted by HardLemonade
(Post 2933733)
$2800ish per paycheck year one. During training they will be even less. One paycheck of mine during training was a whopping $700.
Year two pay raise is different at AA than anywhere else. You won't get your raise on your hire date anniversary. It'll be on the anniversary of whenever you completed IOE. Which is usually 2.5 to 3 months after hire date. Thanks, saw someone a few posts up saying it was a 57k paycut and that made me nervous. Won’t even be close to that much of a pay cut for me luckily. |
Originally Posted by HardLemonade
(Post 2933733)
$2800ish per paycheck year one. During training they will be even less. One paycheck of mine during training was a whopping $700
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Ah yeah I remeber that. Mine was in the $300 range, but I suppose it all evens out eventually. Weird system
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I like the guys that were screaming recession about four months ago. Dow has gone up ~2,000 points. I wonder if they got out?
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Originally Posted by Al Czervik
(Post 2933819)
I like the guys that were screaming recession about four months ago. Dow has gone up ~2,000 points. I wonder if they got out?
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Originally Posted by HardLemonade
(Post 2933733)
It'll be on the anniversary of whenever you completed IOE. Which is usually 2.5 to 3 months after hire date.
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Originally Posted by HardLemonade
(Post 2933733)
$2800ish per paycheck year one. During training they will be even less. One paycheck of mine during training was a whopping $700.
Year two pay raise is different at AA than anywhere else. You won't get your raise on your hire date anniversary. It'll be on the anniversary of whenever you completed IOE. Which is usually 2.5 to 3 months after hire date.
Originally Posted by Machwon
(Post 2933875)
This is incorrect !
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Originally Posted by Weekendwarrior2
(Post 2933746)
Thanks, saw someone a few posts up saying it was a 57k paycut and that made me nervous. Won’t even be close to that much of a pay cut for me luckily.
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