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Route66 03-15-2020 06:30 AM


Originally Posted by GhettoJet (Post 2998692)
Bankruptcy, layoffs, and a major downsizing of the operation is inevitable at this point. AA has been the weakest of the majors for several years now, both operationally and financially. Even if it wasn't a foregone conclusion, there is too much for the management team to gain by pursuing this route with three open contracts. Think partying in Vegas for six months on your credit card while working from your hotel room. The hangover has arrived.

You’re not armed, are you?

AllYourBaseAreB 03-15-2020 06:32 AM

What’s the point of paying down debt when the debt is so cheap? Especially if they are 0% loans from the government (hopefully coming).

cash WAS wasted on those damn buybacks...

at least we don’t hedge fuel.

5and20 03-15-2020 07:16 PM


Originally Posted by Surprise (Post 2998694)
Casual observation that there seems to be a lot of new faces here spreading doom and gloom. Is management trying to soften us up for concessions?

Illinois and Ohio just closed all restaurants for 2 weeks. United announce they will cut flying by 50 percent and will lose over a billion dollars in in revenues March. You think this just management games

FourPutt 03-15-2020 07:48 PM


Originally Posted by 5and20 (Post 2999650)
Illinois and Ohio just closed all restaurants for 2 weeks. United announce they will cut flying by 50 percent and will lose over a billion dollars in in revenues March. You think this just management games

They've got to be losing more than just a bliion in revenue per month, probaby burning through a billion in cash per month with revenues down 50% or more.

Name User 03-15-2020 08:02 PM


Originally Posted by FourPutt (Post 2999683)
They've got to be losing more than just a bliion in revenue per month, probaby burning through a billion in cash per month with revenues down 50% or more.

44b rev and 42b expenses (pulling #'s out my butt), Loss of 30b in annual revenue (70% haircut...optimistic?)

5b in fuel savings from cheaper gas and not flying.

Leaves 13b revenue and 37b in expenses

Burn of 2b a month or time to expire...less than four months with no more borrowing.

above is just shotgunned. Pay cuts and layoffs will probably give another month or so of burn. Eventually all the majors are going to go through restructuring and shed half or more of their aircraft, there is just no way to recover from this. I'd bet AA furloughs 6000-7000, maybe more. TWA guys will be on the street...again.

And no he demand won't just come right back, because there won't be anyone left that is employed.

I think the U.K. is doing it the right way. It's gonna happen...everyone is gonna get this...at least they will have an economy after it's all said and done.

Arado 234 03-16-2020 05:45 AM


Originally Posted by 5and20 (Post 2999650)
Illinois and Ohio just closed all restaurants for 2 weeks. United announce they will cut flying by 50 percent and will lose over a billion dollars in in revenues March. You think this just management games

Realty is... People gonna go crazy. I have family in Europe and playgrounds etc. are packed! Good luck staying indoors with a 3 year old for two weeks! And for all others, you'll get tired of 24 hour pornhub very quickly. I bet we'll see birth rates skyrocket in the next 9 to 10 months AND the divorce rate.

CVGair 03-16-2020 02:37 PM


Originally Posted by Salukidawg (Post 2998817)
Let’s say you’re right and the industry rebounds quickly. That still doesn’t change the fundamental problems that lay beneath the surface for AA going forward. They need to aggressively pay down debt (should have already been happening) or they are going to find themselves in a world of hurt when the next financial crisis hits. Doug’s comments about the industry never losing money again are going to come back to haunt him in a big way.

It does not matter the party is over all 3 legacies will go BK (plus weak airlines), Now the next step after bk, lets end this eagle/express experiment all flights run by AA, no Mainline/Eagle after the bk, "B" scales fine. All employees taken care of. Do you have what it takes? Thousands will lose their jobs, this is about the future. Once again get your head out of the sand, BK will happen. Get your affairs in order and the contract for those that survive must be for the future. Many sacrifices, 3 years from now we will be proud if we do it right!! All Legacies must stand tall and get rid of the surf regional system, help one another, love another. The surf system must be abolished after BK, Do you have what it takes?

rld1k 03-16-2020 02:47 PM


Originally Posted by CVGair (Post 3000614)
It does not matter the party is over all 3 legacies will go BK (plus weak airlines), Now the next step after bk, lets end this eagle/express experiment all flights run by AA, no Mainline/Eagle after the bk, "B" scales fine. All employees taken care of. Do you have what it takes? Thousands will lose their jobs, this is about the future. Once again get your head out of the sand, BK will happen. Get your affairs in order and the contract for those that survive must be for the future. Many sacrifices, 3 years from now we will be proud if we do it right!! All Legacies must stand tall and get rid of the surf regional system, help one another, love another. The surf system must be abolished after BK, Do you have what it takes?

But I like surfing

Happyflyer 03-16-2020 04:01 PM


Originally Posted by 6ix9ineYearFlow (Post 2998564)
More leveraged than their last bankruptcy.
More debt than United & Delta combined.
AA bonds approaching distressed levels at 12%.
AAG is in trouble.

The silver lining is that oil is cheap and AAG has $7.3 billion in liquidity....

I think they can just default on the loans for the airplanes without filing BK.

Before it was to reorganize the pensions.

In this case, they just don't need the capacity, and can allow the planes to be repossessed.

When the debt doesn't have collateral you have to use BK. When it does you surrender the collateral.

Name User 03-16-2020 04:58 PM


Originally Posted by CVGair (Post 3000614)
It does not matter the party is over all 3 legacies will go BK (plus weak airlines), Now the next step after bk, lets end this eagle/express experiment all flights run by AA, no Mainline/Eagle after the bk, "B" scales fine. All employees taken care of. Do you have what it takes? Thousands will lose their jobs, this is about the future. Once again get your head out of the sand, BK will happen. Get your affairs in order and the contract for those that survive must be for the future. Many sacrifices, 3 years from now we will be proud if we do it right!! All Legacies must stand tall and get rid of the surf regional system, help one another, love another. The surf system must be abolished after BK, Do you have what it takes?

That sounds great. Ok now for reality. Shred union contracts and outsource everything, Total reset. AA becomes a broker. Mesa, Skywest, Republic all operating Airbus and Boeing products and bid on contracts. Assets like slots get sold at fire sale prices because the last carrier left standing only has so much cash. The end game could be one or two carriers left flying 300-500 aircraft between them for the time being, only serving major airports and doing point to point.

Then that is a real good reason for cabotage to enter the fray, let other countries take the risk too.

I don't think you really want to go down that road.


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