Bankruptcy
 

More leveraged than their last bankruptcy.
More debt than United & Delta combined.
AA bonds approaching distressed levels at 12%.
AAG is in trouble.

The silver lining is that oil is cheap and AAG has $7.3 billion in liquidity....

AA doesn’t have more debt than United and Delta combined.

That’s what’s analyst on CNBC keep quoting. Heard that multiple times.

I believe AA debt is about equal to DAL and UAL combined, but not more

Concerns about debt back in 2018, article: https://www.flightglobal.com/strategy/american-faces-debt-concerns-from-wall-street/130083.article

a lot changed since 18.

Even worse than Southwest and United is American's net total long-term debt, which has ballooned to nearly $20 billion. In fact, American Airlines has more net long-term debt than the other five major U.S. airlines combined. Also concerning is American's debt to capital (D/C) ratio, which is the highest of the group and now exceeds 100%, meaning the company is highly leveraged and prone to using debt financing over equity financing.

Earnings aren't much better. Although American was able to grow net income more than 15% year over year in Q3 2019, these results pale in comparison to Delta's 29% or United's 31% increase. Both Delta and United expect growth to slow in the coming quarters, and American is no different.

Ual 9.4b
Dal 8.7b in long term debt
congratulations to Doug for buying back stock vs paying down debt.

Bankruptcy, layoffs, and a major downsizing of the operation is inevitable at this point. AA has been the weakest of the majors for several years now, both operationally and financially. Even if it wasn't a foregone conclusion, there is too much for the management team to gain by pursuing this route with three open contracts. Think partying in Vegas for six months on your credit card while working from your hotel room. The hangover has arrived.

Casual observation that there seems to be a lot of new faces here spreading doom and gloom. Is management trying to soften us up for concessions?

Online airline CEO's! Its like celebrity political advice! So valuable! (NOT)

Things will workout just fine, so try to destress and enjoy your time with your loved ones.

Analysts (US guys) are saying China’s economy maybe back to full steam by summer. This may be short lived.
I’m hoping...

Let’s say you’re right and the industry rebounds quickly. That still doesn’t change the fundamental problems that lay beneath the surface for AA going forward. They need to aggressively pay down debt (should have already been happening) or they are going to find themselves in a world of hurt when the next financial crisis hits. Doug’s comments about the industry never losing money again are going to come back to haunt him in a big way.