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Old 08-29-2024 | 01:09 PM
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Question March 2025 Vacancy Announcement

So, quick question - the last page (long-range forecast) shows the total number of FOs and CAs they expect to have on property (by Dec 2025). Is that number lower than the number of active pilots we have now? Yes, I know, 3XP - but that shows the most junior pilot around 16,0XX seniory number (as of July 2024 if I'm not mistaken). That doesn't account for long term leave, mil leaves, etc., so wonder if the "long-range forecast" number accounts for that or not. In other words, retirements will cause the number of pilots to drop well below the "long-range forecast" in my opinion, but what do y'all think?
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Old 08-29-2024 | 01:55 PM
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Originally Posted by rockelino
So, quick question - the last page (long-range forecast) shows the total number of FOs and CAs they expect to have on property (by Dec 2025). Is that number lower than the number of active pilots we have now? Yes, I know, 3XP - but that shows the most junior pilot around 16,0XX seniory number (as of July 2024 if I'm not mistaken). That doesn't account for long term leave, mil leaves, etc., so wonder if the "long-range forecast" number accounts for that or not. In other words, retirements will cause the number of pilots to drop well below the "long-range forecast" in my opinion, but what do y'all think?
It is predicting fairly significant growth.
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Old 08-29-2024 | 02:41 PM
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Originally Posted by rockelino
So, quick question - the last page (long-range forecast) shows the total number of FOs and CAs they expect to have on property (by Dec 2025). Is that number lower than the number of active pilots we have now? Yes, I know, 3XP - but that shows the most junior pilot around 16,0XX seniory number (as of July 2024 if I'm not mistaken). That doesn't account for long term leave, mil leaves, etc., so wonder if the "long-range forecast" number accounts for that or not. In other words, retirements will cause the number of pilots to drop well below the "long-range forecast" in my opinion, but what do y'all think?
That far out means nothing. They really haven't a clue what we need. XLR comes in November. 3 this year 16 next year. I don't see a bump in numbers in PHL, LGA, or LAX to support that many planes. I hear the seats are going to slow down the actual first flight date. Production back up. They cost $70,000 each. Ouch.

It appears DFW has hit max usage. Very few vacancies.
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Old 08-29-2024 | 07:01 PM
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Originally Posted by rockelino
So, quick question - the last page (long-range forecast) shows the total number of FOs and CAs they expect to have on property (by Dec 2025). Is that number lower than the number of active pilots we have now? Yes, I know, 3XP - but that shows the most junior pilot around 16,0XX seniory number (as of July 2024 if I'm not mistaken). That doesn't account for long term leave, mil leaves, etc., so wonder if the "long-range forecast" number accounts for that or not. In other words, retirements will cause the number of pilots to drop well below the "long-range forecast" in my opinion, but what do y'all think?
The 15.5 number is +/- 300 pilots give or take that they've shown as their long range forecast number for the past four vacancies. Seems to be holding pretty steady there at this point in time.

Originally Posted by Varks
That far out means nothing. They really haven't a clue what we need. XLR comes in November. 3 this year 16 next year. I don't see a bump in numbers in PHL, LGA, or LAX to support that many planes. I hear the seats are going to slow down the actual first flight date. Production back up. They cost $70,000 each. Ouch.

It appears DFW has hit max usage. Very few vacancies.
2026 will be when we open the new PHL/JFK 321 Europe flying I believe.
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Old 08-30-2024 | 06:39 AM
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Originally Posted by Varks

It appears DFW has hit max usage. Very few vacancies.
Good, let's start growing some of the other bases. We push too much through DFW to the detriment of the company.
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Old 08-30-2024 | 06:48 AM
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Originally Posted by ImSoSuss
Good, let's start growing some of the other bases. We push too much through DFW to the detriment of the company.
The corporate office is there though and they can see the airport out of the windows. I'm not sure they realize we have other hubs. They gave LA to Southwest and the Northeast to JetBlue. Probably give the Northwest to Alaska soon.
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Old 08-30-2024 | 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted by tallpilot
The corporate office is there though and they can see the airport out of the windows. I'm not sure they realize we have other hubs. They gave LA to Southwest and the Northeast to JetBlue. Probably give the Northwest to Alaska soon.
We have a northwest operation??? Fooled me
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Old 08-30-2024 | 09:50 AM
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New York to Delta/UA and Chicago to UA

DFW or CLT
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Old 08-30-2024 | 11:43 AM
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Originally Posted by tallpilot
The corporate office is there though and they can see the airport out of the windows.
If I didn't know any better, I'd have thought the DFW operation was run from Bangalore.
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Old 08-30-2024 | 02:38 PM
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There are some remarks amongst our peers that AA may be shrinking next year, or at least not hiring/upgrading with attrition. Anyone here believe this?

And with the small amount of CA upgrades, upgrade time may climb to 3-5 years?
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