I hope you're right. The 777X would be sweet. From what I've seen of Isom I would expect him just to order a few more 787s and more XLRs. Shrink the total Group IV airframes and increase the 321XLR fleet to pick up the slack. Then they could offload whatever they can't fly to JV partners. We don't have eny scope requiring growth flying to be done by AA.

The 1:1 replacement you referenced in a later post negates these numbers, right? We have 777s from the Clinton administration still flying. At some point, it won’t make sense to keep them operating. We’ve retreated in a lot of international markets.

I hope you’re right, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

My guess? Eventually more 787s and more XLRs, that’s about it.

a350 is my guess, It's the perfect 777 replacement.

“Perfect” and “logical” don’t usually apply to us. We had the orders and the SIM in place, and they let it go. Why would they bring all that back when they can save $0.50 if they order more 787s?. They don’t care about logic

The doomerism amongst our pilot group is staggering sometimes.

Where’s the doomerism? Isn’t a fact we had those orders and a SIM already in place?

The entire thread above?

Of course it's a fact that they canned the 350 orders and program. I remember the sim sitting in GSW training the initial cadre.

But everyone still acts like that happened yesterday and that they didn't fire the guy who led the charge to make that call. Vasu did that in 2018 and was fired last year. He did damage to our airline that will take at least a decade to repair.

Will they order 350's? More 78's? 77X? Who knows, but everyone acts like it is a certainty that we're going to shrink the widebody fleet with absolutely zero evidence to support it other than a gut feeling.

We fawn over DAL and UAL while the bulk of their widebody fleets are 25+ years old too.

“..when their entire order book is delivered”. Delta notoriously doesn’t order many years out - in fact the wide-body order book extends just to 2028. The 20 options from the 35K is assuredly going to exercised soon as well per DL’s historical ordering practices. No US carrier will order the 777X (simply too big) and you say AA will 1:1 the 777’s for more WB’s but refuse to think DL will do the same to their 763 WB’s?

Existing 330’s are replacing 763’s - what’s replacing those pulled 330’s? (787 possibly 2029-2030 or more 330 orders). Delta hasn’t made those orders yet - DL is a WB Airbus carrier and the tariffs will shake things up on timetables/potentially going to Boeing.

United’s order book extends into deep 2030’s (~240 WB’s with all 787+777-300ER when it’s done) and American’s until 2029. If you add DL’s 764+350+330 fleet in addition to existing WB orders and options it equates to 186 WB aircraft by 2028.

Other factors:
1) Delta’s new Global Scope which will force Delta to grow 1:1 WB hours with all partners.. IndiGo & Riyadh set to be Delta partners - Asiana merging into Skyteam. VS, LATAM, AM, WS, SK, MU, CI are all growing in WB’s - DL has too match each one.
2) Delta’s desire for WB’s TATL vs. NB (no desire for XLR).
3) AMS/CDG/ICN much more room to accommodate TPAC/TATL growth vs. LHR/HND/MAD
4) AA is retreating in JFK, giving AS its west-coast flying/no AA west-coast hub, its European partners incentivize (due to be so close to Atlantic side) no AA-overflying of LHR/MAD. DL has three strong TATL gateways (BOS, ATL, JFK) and two TPAC (LAX, SEA). [Two WB categories added less than a year apart BOS330/SEA350 and SLC350 becoming more likely soon with JFK350 becoming more of a reality after the 35K arrival].
5) AA has no scope protection and weaker financial footing at the moment vs. Delta whom is focusing on intl. growth

I expect by mid 2030’s UA will have around 240 pay-scale WB’s, AA at 180, and DL at 220 give or take. AA can absolutely turn it all around and acutely start growing intl. at some point, but quit trying to downplay Delta’s current game plan. The days of “DL shipping WB’s to JV’s” are assuredly over with the Scope addition - more JV’s/partner’s now = more DL WB flying.

https://d2r1lrrqctgamh.cloudfront.ne...A/NN-23-03.pdf

Oh look, the one no one cares about has thoughts…

Surely you could’ve came up with something better.. I just take comfort in demoralizing MinimumEfforts.. analysis? If thats what it was.

Glad you took the time to read/respond to someone no one cares about ;)

Thank you

“Could’ve came up”, 🤣🤣🤣

😂😂😂 got me!

I think Margaritaville was on to something... there really must be a big red alarm that goes off in all the DL pilot hats whenever Delta is mentioned on the AA side of APC.

What makes you say AA is retreating in JFK? Genuinely curious as I thought we increased flying in NYC?

I like to believe they have a “Hat Signal” that goes up over Atlanta anytime they’re mentioned.

Excellent.

UA: 227 WB, 188 WB on order
DA: 176 WB, 29 WB on order

It's not really an analysis.
I was just stating what the number of large WB aircraft will be given current fleets and order books. You just put in your "what ifs" while I just stuck to what is known.
If we're gonna play that game then lets.
Delta isn't number 1 in any region they serve. They aren't number 1 in asia, europe or Latin America. They can't grow much more in NYC, Seattle is not only their least profitable but least profitable of any US carrier and is about to get a whole lot worse now that the home team airline is flying a superior WB product compared to the current fleet of aging 330s to the same cities delta is flying to.
Finally, they are number 3 in Latin America without a real gateway to expand from and farming most of it out to Latam which they lost billions on without any real return.
But don't worry AUS will be just as big as DFW in 50 years.
Plus they are the only legacy without a supersonic aircraft order and have to wear hats😊 .

767's don't count. They pay the same as a 321.

Their entire personality is their job and their company. These are the kind of dudes that wear delta company merch out in public on their days off and are probably also part of some delta pilots golf team.

The younger 767-400s pay the top rate and the older 763s are getting replaced by 787s. My main point given the lead time for wide body aircraft is approaching seven years is that someone's predictions for the mid 2030s appear to be wishful thinking based on the current situation.

This is the doomsday scenario but it feels right without a major management philosophy shift (which scapegoating Vasu didn't accomplish). They will order 787-10s to replace 777-200s because they are equivalent to beancounters in the same way XLRs are to 757s. They insist cargo doesn't make money.

That orphans the small 777-300ER fleet so they wind that down and park them. Hopefully something less disappointing than this happens. I want to be positive on the future of the company and I want to retire a widebody captain. But they need to demonstrate that they care about serious growth in that space and they absolutely have not at this point.

How many years are you projected to be a CLT WB captain (it was easier when myaacareer was running)? They will eventually replace all 777s with 787s until something better comes along.

0. I'll retire in the high 4000s so we need about 30-40 more WBs than current book (or a CBA change that requires more captains instead of relief FOs) so junior CA goes into the 5000s. So I'm very interested in growing the WB fleet.

In what world was Vasu a scapegoat? He's taking the lion's share of the blame, but the man was the CCO, it wasn't like they canned a low-level manager.

Sure, he wasn't the only one making bad calls but moving past his "sun belt strategy" and "our product is our network" has been a welcome relief. The sales strategy that hamstrung us was his brainchild. He wanted to be a disruptor to an industry that is stodgy and established (corporate travel) and failed.

People engage in the same revisionist history with Kirby. Sure, he's trying to be Juan Trippe 2.0 at United, but when he was at AW/US/AA, he was all about RJ's, shrinking mainline, and keeping our pay low.

The issue is that everyone above Vasu (Isom and the board) ultimately signed off on these decisions, and they are still here.

Vasu also brought on our expansion into eastern European markets as well. He made a huge push for adding destinations out of hubs and successfully beat Spirit down in DFW as well.

He was really only wrong about one thing - getting rid of the booking systems corporate agents use. And he wasn't even wrong - it needs and will be done - he was just early. Which is the same as being wrong most cases. We pushed $2b in revenue to DL and UA as the post-covid upswing was happening.

I agree about Kirby - he was pushing for 99 seat RJs his entire tenure here. UA had a severely underutilized route network that Smisek had floundered, Kirby just used his AA rolodex game plan, took what he learned here and applied it there. He's a smart guy but still a dick.

Isom was COO, which is operations, he had nothing to do with revenue. Vasu had a background in revenue and at one point was chief revenue officer. His last title was CCO, which is basically the head person in charge of all revenue.

American Airlines Names Vasu Raja Vice President, International Revenue Management

I get that, but the Board and CEO aren't going to fire themselves if they were all complicit. The only way they can get removed is with a shareholder vote or activist takeover.

They get the luxury of changing their tune, but they were all drunk on the Vasu kool-aid too. I'd rather fix our problems organically than have an outside influence (like what's happening at SWA) come in and upset the apple cart. Devil you know vs. the devil you don't.

Vasu gets a bad rap.
Yes he messed up the corporate travel issue but the plan was actually pretty solid and sound the problem was the execution. But as Name User said he was the big reason we pushed so hard into Europe pre covid. He was willing to try new things and if covid had not happened who knows where we would be. Had covid not happened the plan was to serve something like 7 or 8 cities out of seattle alone not to mention his expansion into Morocco and India.

Sure, but there is no reason to think that they will change their tune when it comes to the international presence AA has.

They are getting better. They see they can't be spirit with WB anymore.

If we're not increasing our international presence, where are we flying new 787's? If we're shrinking internationally, why aren't we parking 777's instead of extending their service life?

They're clearly changing their tune, but they're starting from a huge disadvantage due to prior mistakes.

I've noticed a few changes already. The free Wi-Fi program being one of them. I feel like catering has improved, slightly. The increase in business class seating. I feel like more is coming. Honestly wouldn't surprise me to hear we're adding ife or something at this point.

Rumor is new seat screens.

Arent they pulling the remaining screens from the 319s when they add the new row of first class? All these maxes and neos being delivered without IFE would cost a fortune to reconfigure. What a mess.

I don't see screens in steerage class on the NB. I see nice screens in Flagship Suites on all aircraft with that class.

Delta's 767 routes aren't going away. The great news for the DL pilots as the majority will be replaced by 787's or A330's. Some of the thinner one's might go to 321XLR's but that's doubtful. 757's will mostly be replaced by 321XLR's and probably not 787/330's.

Delta's route structure supports more w/b's today. It will in the future.

All the airlines are trying to identify new w/b markets. Welcome to 'nothing new under the sun.' If AA is successful in building up PHL, CLT, and a bit in JFK it can work on closing the gap to DL. UA's Pacific market supports a lot of large twins (Grp 4). That's hard to replicate in the near term.

Near term? It can’t be replicated, period. The demand to Asia doesn’t exist anywhere else like it does in San Francisco.

It's not just the LAX/SFO demand, it's point of sale. Both UA and DL (via NWA) have a long history of serving that part of the world and asians will buy tickets on them, vs AA just serving US customers. Similar to how we have our LA and deep south flying. DL tried to buy their way in via LATAM and lost $2b doing so.

I don’t think Delta is getting 787. Pretty sure they are not getting the XLR either. United. Yes and yes. I wouldn’t be surprised if United got the XLR before us.