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Old 03-09-2013, 08:36 AM
  #11  
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We'll let you know in 25 years. Until then, it is all a guess.

Apply to every airline. Maybe one will hire you. Until then, don't worry too much about predicting the future.

If you are psychic, I would just go win the World Series of Poker and not be an airline pilot.

My 2 cents.
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Old 03-09-2013, 09:06 AM
  #12  
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Originally Posted by Big Slick View Post
We'll let you know in 25 years. Until then, it is all a guess.

Apply to every airline. Maybe one will hire you. Until then, don't worry too much about predicting the future.

If you are psychic, I would just go win the World Series of Poker and not be an airline pilot.

My 2 cents.
True dat. You can only predict a good career after the fact.
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Old 03-09-2013, 09:34 AM
  #13  
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Originally Posted by Night Hawk 6 View Post
First one must look at history and if you do you will run as fast as you can from AA. How many pilots did AA have after the TWA purchase? How many do they have today? Look back at Reno and the other AA acquisitions and you will see a rather consistent pattern. You do not want to be hired at AA just after an acquisition or merger.
You absolutely cannot compare previous Asset Acquisitions vs this Merger. Two totally different scenarios, as different as night & day. While I completely agree with the fact that AMR completely dismantled Aircal, Reno and TWA's networks, these were mostly asset acquisitions with AMR management still in charge. They were not essential to AMR's long term survivability and their networks were completely squandered away under absolutely inept management.

In AA/US's case, totally different: Both airlines need each other for long term survival. Both airlines complement each other. And most importantly, this is the first merger in AMR's history in which it is AMR management that is getting dismantled and being taken over by the other airline's management - a group of folks that actually WANT to run an airline, not a virtual travel agency whilst rewarding themselves with bonus after bonus.

This merger will be on par with DL/NW and UA/CO. The end result will be a strong airline that is able to compete using the complementary assets of both airlines. I don't believe we'll see shrinkage out of this - quite the opposite, in fact.

And yes, it is still all a crapshoot.
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Old 03-09-2013, 10:50 AM
  #14  
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My heart (and the cynic in me) wants to listen to Nighthawk on this, but my brain says "listen to AA73."
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Old 03-09-2013, 11:56 AM
  #15  
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If you take Night Hawk's cynicism and my optimism, and then throw in a blind dose of luck, you should do fine. Or not.

I'm just trying to look at every angle. He does make some good points regarding AMR's history. My take on that is, we're getting a whole new AMR that seems intent on being a game changer (even the name AMR is gone, replaced by American Airlines Group.)
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Old 03-09-2013, 01:52 PM
  #16  
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Originally Posted by Skubajet View Post
Hello all,

I was wondering what you think of the new American as a career airline now with the merger taking place? I was talking with some Airways pilots and they were showing me some of the payrates on the new MOU. Seems pretty decent. I believe I heard somewhere that they would eventually be based on the average of DAL and UAL. When does the new payscale take effect?

I have apps with with DAL, UAL, and Airways but one never knows when a phone call will come. I was just wondering if you see the potential for a great career with the new American.

What would be some pros? Cons?

Thanks!
I think newAmerican will be an excellent place to be.

The economy is what worries me, but that will effect all airlines equally.
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Old 03-09-2013, 01:53 PM
  #17  
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Originally Posted by Night Hawk 6 View Post
While I understand the satisfaction of being one of the relative few in our society to be able to operate these great machines, this satisfaction does not put food on your table or send your kids to college. The personal sacrifice and costs, emotional, financial and physical it takes to get into and maintain our careers far exceeds almost any other career. With the level of compensation now down to plumber, electrician and in some cases city bus driver levels, you must consider if it is really worth it. Again when you look at history you will see that since deregulation pilots have consistently been guilty of taking one step forward then taking two steps back, then patting themselves on the back for preserving their individual job, at least for the time being. As long as pilots are not willing to stand together and demand the respect and compensation the profession deserves airline management will continue to make their bonuses off the pilots backs.
Dude, if you were a preacher, I would go to church.
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Old 03-09-2013, 03:31 PM
  #18  
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Only one thing is guaranteed - retirements. Age 65 delayed the process but the elephant is coming.

If you assume a constant size, which actually means under-performing vs. the competition in the years ahead, first upgrades should be under 10 yrs. We havn't seen that for 20+ yrs so trying to compare the future using the past as a baseline is pointless.

Junior Captain is about 60% at AA. That's under 10 yrs on retirements alone. Early outs, expansion, would increase the odds of it happening.
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Old 03-09-2013, 05:29 PM
  #19  
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To be regarded as a good preacher one must have converts and the ability to motivate his flock to action. For almost two decades my sermon has been the same: pilots are their own worst enemy, the "associations" are obsolete and responsible for the decline of the profession, the government via the RLA is a tool of management and the enemy of every pilot yet not one peep from the associations on getting out from under this antiquated law or at least getting it amended, and finally the airline pilot profession will never move forward until there is one union with one contract, equal pay for equal work the only fair and equitable system for the profession. Unfortunately my message has not moved anyone to action even though most are in agreement.

PS My long deceased Grand Mother always wanted me to be a preacher.

PPS Real preachers have a much more important message than mine. You might want to give them a chance. What could it hurt?
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Old 03-09-2013, 06:11 PM
  #20  
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Originally Posted by Night Hawk 6 View Post
To be regarded as a good preacher one must have converts and the ability to motivate his flock to action. For almost two decades my sermon has been the same: pilots are their own worst enemy, the "associations" are obsolete and responsible for the decline of the profession, the government via the RLA is a tool of management and the enemy of every pilot yet not one peep from the associations on getting out from under this antiquated law or at least getting it amended, and finally the airline pilot profession will never move forward until there is one union with one contract, equal pay for equal work the only fair and equitable system for the profession. Unfortunately my message has not moved anyone to action even though most are in agreement.

PS My long deceased Grand Mother always wanted me to be a preacher.

PPS Real preachers have a much more important message than mine. You might want to give them a chance. What could it hurt?
Would you please get off of your soapbox, and take your half glass empty drink with you.

For every guy that preaches doom and gloom, I'll show you a miserable one.

For all the guys who think this is a bad profession please just quit. Leave the jobs for us.
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