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The question is 5 years from now will the new AA have 14,700 pilots? Could easily be around 12,500-13,000.

I doubt they will. I'd say 12500-13000 would be a good number. But with the attrition, they'll still be hiring good numbers and there will still be movement barring a catastrophic economic meltdown.

Quote:

Originally Posted by kingairip (Post 1609182)

I don't think that was a serious question.

For those wondering, here are the data for the next five years*:

Legacy AA (Total Pilots = 9,600)
Retirements / Total since 2014 / Percent of list
2014 83 83 1%
2015 112 195 2%
2016 135 330 3%
2017 190 520 5%
2018 300 820 9%

Legacy US (Total Pilots = 5,159)
Retirements / Total since 2014 / Percent of list
2014 171 171 3%
2015 173 344 7%
2016 206 550 11%
2017 234 784 15%
2018 262 1046 20%

(* - Data were pulled off of APC several months ago. kingairip makes no claims on their veracity and will not be held responsible for any career decisions made as a result of this data.)

The longer East stays separate from the west, the better movement will be as well. I was told 80% of the EAST guys will be gone in 8 years.

Also, a quote from the APA, HALF of the combined list will be retiring by the end of 2024 (10 years or so). So in *theory*, a new hire today will be halfway up the list in a decade.

That being said I think retirements are similar at UAL and DAL, aren't they? So it's not like AA/US is anything special, except for the retirements off the east side alone.

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Guapo (Post 1618251)

The question is 5 years from now will the new AA have 14,700 pilots? Could easily be around 12,500-13,000.

Maybe who knows. I will say the main reason why there are so many new hires this year is due mostly to 117 it seems. That has led to an increase in staffing by a decent amount (look at stated hiring goals vs. retirements, they are 2x or 3x the amount). So it's possible there will be even more pilots on property, and that doesn't even touch on possible QOL improvements in the contract increasing the need even more.

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Guapo (Post 1618251)

The question is 5 years from now will the new AA have 14,700 pilots? Could easily be around 12,500-13,000.

If things stay on track, the two sides combined will hire about 900 pilots this year. I don't think the plan is to shrink.

Quote:

Originally Posted by j1b3h0 (Post 1602001)

I don't recommend commuting - unless you want to stay married.

Exactly. I love this job/airline, but I love my family more. Good chance I will always commute.

Quote:

Originally Posted by El Guapo (Post 1618251)

The question is 5 years from now will the new AA have 14,700 pilots? Could easily be around 12,500-13,000.

Delta reduced hubs, and consolidated ASMs into larger airframes reducing frequency. AA will do this to some extent as it's network realign. However, newAA has room to grow in Asia, and Africa at the expense of DAL and UAL margins.

Ultimately, world GDP will determine newAA net growth. Retirement statistics are certainly comforting.

Unfortunately history works against any hope for the new AA to keep the same number of pilots as it has today. The "shrink to profitability" mentality among the bean counters who actually run the airline will determine that there is more money to be made by not having to pay so many pilots. They will look at the landscape and move profitable assets to consolidate in an area where they think the assets can be more profitable and abandon the already profitable operation for an SWA or some new LCC to move in and make money. AA has done this for decades and my bet is they will do it again. History is a "B."

Current bodies on property probably closer to 12,500-13,000. On list count is higher.

This year's hiring will barely cover the next two years retirements.

None of the recent mergers occurred in the current airline cycle (profitable).

AA retirement cycle leads DL/UA's.

For US guys/gals:

If you were to commute from ORD, which base and a/c would you suggest for a new hire?

I was thinking CLT A320 might be the best option if available.