Fun guesses
 

Not debating the merits, just predictions (so likely very wrong!)

Quick read:

West with the biggest gains from an individual pilot career perspective (NIC correction + merger benefits).

AA good. I thought the AA case around pay / career expectations felt pretty strong actually. Feels like they should get credited somehow as a result.

East. Still good with merger pay increases but career progression may not be as strong as others.

Random guess:

Longevity weighted lower than west and east to benefit AA - I'll guess 25%.

Career expectation bonus - not 75%, but maybe 25% if used. This was AA's thing, but harder to follow technically.

No idea on the bypassed pilots. It seems weird to credit for seats not being flown by someone on a list... Interested to see where that lands. Similar with US Airways "third list" - be interesting to see how that's handled.

Should be interesting...

Really? Another thread on this?

I'm guessing the panel will issue a list comprised of some, all or none of the proposals. I'll also venture a guess that some people will be happy. Some will be ****ed and some will move on with their lives and focus on trying to fix the mess that the JCBA got us into. I'll also go on record with a guess that there is absolutely nothing the regular line pilots can do about it and posting on a message board will do nothing to aid anyone's cause.

(I'll also bet cacti and eaglefly will be along shortly to pontificate.)

Outsider prediction:

They merge the Nicalou Award with AA list and for years everyone complains the West got windfall, based on the "three separate list" theory, when in fact, there should have only been two lists.

From my viewpoint at a merger ALPA carrier, the West has been getting fisted for almost a decade and now that it's going to be fixed and their rightful seniority restored, people will call it a "windfall", when in fact it's called "justice".

That's a UCH pilot's opinion.

Everyone on the list within 1-5 % of west proposal depending on where they fall on the list. Naatives move forward within that percentage range while east/west move backwards within that percentage range. 5 year 777/787-350/330 fence. no base fencing.

Ha! 1 for 2!

Dunno.

All I know is somebody better not move my cheese and Festivus will rock later this year;)

West moves forward on all proposals. Being younger helps. It just takes time to develop under the AA proposal vs a quicker, and permanent 'blocker' position, under the West proposal.

Why not ? You're guessing too along with others.

So far, I'm sticking with my original assumption of a hybrid result that is not a pure adoption of any of the three proposals. Part of that is the use of portions of the Nic, but not the whole Nic in pure form. My guess is they will say the complexities of this merger/SLI require them thinking outside the box to produce what they feel is the most equitable result. Just like some of the Nic being used, so may varying levels of LOS. Again, regarding Letter T pilots is that the argument to dilute them because at snapshot they "didn't bring jobs to the merger" because they deferred means they must also dilute similar pilots who DID bring jobs to the merger who were more junior LAA. Also, the furlough range is pretty wide for those pilots, so the bottom 1/3 of the list will be the most contentious and thus difficult to predict. That's my guess. Ack thinks we were shredded to pieces and so, we may just gat stapled below the pure NIC too. :rolleyes:

Nailed it! Somebody buy this man a beer, and for the love of god somebody shut down this duplicate thread before the contagion spreads.

I think it'll closely resemble the AA list. Maybe not quite as severe but something like it. I really think team misfit should get the pure nic. Give them what they richly deserve and a 20 year fence in Phoenix. Since it's so great why would anyone ever want to leave?

I think the legacy AA guys will do the best, but still will be ****ed, because it's going to be nowhere near the 75% superiority they want. Nic, no Nic, I really don't know.

Assumed the AA/US/AWA guys were all discussing on another board, because in terms of amount of poo slinging per pilot effected, this SLI hearing has to be near the bottom.
At DL/NW SLI arbitration hearings, there were daily testimony synopsis and rebuttals with rebuttals to those rebuttals.
Even the UAL/CAL merger seemed to have a more widespread contention.
Other than a handful (less than a dozen) pilots posting about hearings that will control the destiny of over 13,000 for their careers, this has been a veritable blackout.
Figured that a majority of the discussion was just taking place on a different board.

Wasn't 75% seniority based on a pure Nic inclusion ?

No pure Nic, no 75% "superiority" needed. Another reason I think a complete hybrid is on the way. Freund even admitted the arbs had no requirement to first merge the East/West pilots by way of the Nic as a matter of law, only because in the West's opinion it was the most fair and equitable. If not using a pure Nic provides a more fair and equitable final result and they can justify that, it may be the way to go.

If so, it would dilute all three proposals and rebalance the lists in varying degrees at different places, so no real winners or losers, except those who believe their committee's pure proposal was the only fair and equitable one.

I'm sure all involved parties read their own representative's interpretations of each day's events. I have no doubt every group said, "We killed that guy on the stand today" and "the arbs totally got it when we ran through our slides". There is no such thing as a neutral party so I'm content to just let the "web experts" explain what's going to happen without responding. While I'm waiting for the results, I read the transcripts and draw my own conclusions about possible outcomes.

Just going on transcripts myself as well. I recall reading both some East and West assessments (East reps and Leonidas), but haven't found or read specific comment by AAPSIC on their interpretations of anything outside their testimony. Have I missed something or is there comment by them somewhere in addition to the transcripts ?

Most of the guys I fly with feel that the arbitrators will do what they're going to do and that the hearings where just for show. And a pretty boring show at that. So, nothing really worth talking about. Also there's no point in arguing since there's no point in changing anyone's opinion except the arbitrators, and they aren't listening to us. Some folks might have minor curiosity about how other people interpret the likely outcome, but on this board any such discussion will be quickly drowned by 2 or 3 annoying and vocal characters, so, sane people just keep quiet. It's like how that one crazy FA results in a van full of silent pilots not wanting to set anything off.

One annoying, vocal character opined how AAPSIC was destroyed in the hearings, but alas here, just like in life, opinions vary and it is indeed a crazy world, especially that of the future AA pilot.

Within a few years, I expect this place to be certifiable. Should be an interesting show that is anything BUT boring.

I seriously doubt the NIC will be used in the award. If the west is lucky, they may get some sort of credit.

Not sure how you cam to that conclusion. Without the merger, AA did not really have a plan B for the creditors and the plan including shrinking and furloughing. The "bankruptcy of convenience" wasn't really out of convenience but necessity. They were loosing money since '08. The Arbs in other awards already stated that career expectations outside of about 5 yrs are meaningless.

Had a stronger career progression that L-AA. The bottom guy hired in '13, would have progress to approx 50% seniority by 2021 based on pure retirements.

Sounds reasonable

Anything beyond five years is hokum.
I see career expectations to be low on the list.


I see the Letter T slots being handled as furloughed and stapled to the bottom. You only get credit for what you brought to the party.


We will know in a couple of months or so.

So am I the only one with the bolls to make a prediction? Opening me up to ridicule once list is published? You boys are no "fun" lol

Exhibit A with over 7000 posts dedicated almost exclusively to the merger. I did apologize for daring to voice on opinion, like I said it won't happen again.

Your predictions are a continuous source of fun entertainment, don't worry.

Thanks for that validation. But they're really guesses as this thread describes. I'm under no illusion of them being anything but that and I always enjoy a lively conversation. ;)

A guess and a bad one. I know a few regional guys who claim my 7000 posts are all about them. :cool: I have no problem with your opinion, but it seems you do with mine. That's too bad. They're just opinions on an internet forum and not the Ten Commandments.

I wouldn't dare impede your interest or ability in voicing your opinion. You're certainly entitled to it and who knows, it may be more accurate then mine. I can live with that.

IDK, AA mgmt seems like geniuses right now going fuel hedge-less during one of the biggest/quickest oil downslides in a generation.

If the SLI comes out and AA keeps growing, retires pilots, and offers new and bigger seats to all current pilots, that will go a long way into smoothing over the SLI results.

It's the backslide of closing bases, displacements, and/or parking planes that cause the scabs from the wounds of an SLI award to be reopened.

Standby for DAL mgmt propaganda when they pay employees over $2Billion on one day in Feb for their share of profit sharing.

Sure, they probably ARE geniuses in making money for share-holders and themselves when they can identify known strategies to do that, but the people I've talked to who have experienced both Delta and AA rate Delta much higher actually like two different carriers and it will be the product that makes the difference in the future. Sure, times are high for profits, but we all know (or should) that this always won't be the way. AA has the same culture problem as United. Delta fixed theirs for the most part and it obviously shows and it's more then about $$$. Shiny wrapping (new paint jobs for planes and costumes for the employees) won't correct the systemic disease still present here IMO and more then ever. Past management never made much effort in that area and the only thing worse is someone who claimed to understand that primary issue, promised to address it and from all appearances has done no such thing. In many ways, I think we're worse now then before BK and that has nothing to do with SLI indigestion. We're morphing more to be like the old American Eagle, just with higher mainline pay rates and you can't produce a premium product with such feeble efforts at taking care of your employees and in time, that will become more obvious. The quality of trips, the hotel accommodations, treatment by ancillary groups like scheduling, sham foot dragging on many of the few benefits we did get all bely a group of people conducting business exactly how it was in the past with the front line customer service employees feeling no better then before.

Sure, that is indeed DAL management posturing, but it isn't just propaganda. For pilots, they have real, tangible rewards for their efforts in producing what is (and will continue to be even more) clearly the superior US Airline product, while we have.............well, what do we have ?

On the pilots and the SLI, sure whatever nuthouse this place becomes by Fall, will ease somewhat within 5-7 years when most of the Senior Easties are gone (nothing against them intended, but it does dilute the Hatfields and so the McCoy's don't patrol with their rifles as much), but I'm not convinced of the growth people are assuming. Parker seems more interested in outsourcing more down the road, both domestically and Internationally and he has several tools not yet used to maximum effectiveness to accomplish that. I think for years to come we will ask and they will say "no". I wish I could be as optimistic, but all signs point ominously to the New AA being no different then the old despite new packaging and new, larger size.

Just my .02.............