To the subject of the thread...
Most companies that merge do not grow. Clearly I don't care one bit for team Tempe but to think that AA would grow post merger is crazy. Long term we probably will grow slightly, internationally. Big picture from my vantage point.. We are basically buying a brand new fleet and financing it all with good interest rates while using the cash to do multiple stock buybacks.

Uhhh, yea they are. I think our contracts afford is better qol than many of the others, but FO pay, specifically first year FO pay is a far cry from many of the others. And also factor in many airlines are offering 10-15K in bonuses. PSA is showing signs of stagnation and can barely hire for attrition at the moment. Envoy is ultimately shrinking and a new hire can expect a lengthy amount of time on reserve. And I honestly have no clue about PDT? But the biggest issue with PDT has always been commutable bases. I know PHL changes that but I wouldn't expect that to last for long as an attainable base for a new hire as your seniority list fills up.

And my point about the flow is that it isn't really all that attractive in and of itself to get new hires to come to one of the wholly owned regionals. At least not in its current form. I personally don't think 8 years to a major is a big deal. It will likely be 5 or 6 for me and I'm not complaining about that. But I'm also not counting on it either. I'm doing everything I can to get out before that happens. If AAG wants to staff it's regionals and ultimately have pilots flow for mainline, it takes one thing... Money.

So far, post merger, the net change is growth.

Mainline fleet count change for 2016 (-37)

55 deliveries and 92 retirements. True regional count (+20) FWIW.
Not saying less planes will necessarily mean less pilots but the numbers are there.

Of the 92 retirements how many were flying? I think that is what slice is getting at.

Several years ago there were a couple dozen a/c that weren't scheduled that could have been. The company provided us with that data. They no longer give us that data.

Those a/c have been replaced by newer a/c. The system's only chance to probably mitigate the loss of airframes is to fly the newer a/c at a higher daily utilization rate. But that only goes so far. Up until now pay hours has increased. Continued reductions makes it harder and harder to avoid pay hour reductions.

You're talking about Delta, not AA.

Delta/Northwest combined fleet in 2008 at time of merger: 786
Delta as of Jan 2016: 809

Source
Source

http://s22.postimg.org/53q5bxpxt/Scr...2_47_19_PM.png

Combined AA mainline fleet at time of merger (end of 2013)

622+343= 965
End of 2016 projection: 909

Combined AA regional fleet at time of merger:
280+278= 558
End of 2016 projection: 607

http://s15.postimg.org/3tc5xs4xn/Scr...2_53_10_PM.png

United fleet as of fall 2015:

Growing mainline, shrinking regionals.

http://s8.postimg.org/a08y0ynkl/Scre...2_51_07_PM.png

Thank you A321.

Had regurgitated numbers from our C&R without the specifics.

All old news, there will continue to be less aircraft at the new American. Once we have full integration from the merger, there will be redundancy in the system and schedule trimming. Capacity could very well remain stable (larger airplanes), but I doubt you will see an increase. Same goes for pilots, attrition but not real growth.

Ive thought this from the start, but I strongly believe we will see parity with DA and UA for size, excluding all the regional stuff.

I don't see this as horrible but it is less then honest to portray AA as a growing company. We will be lucky to stay the same size even with all the new metal.

Can you say "RIGHT SIZING"?

The statement stands by itself - since the merger it's been a net increase.

Post merger combined AA pilot count, two years post merger, is up. DL manning, seven years post merger, is flat.

Yes, it's troubling to see others increasing their fleet sizes while AA's fleet total shrinks. Long term that's a troubling trend. But post BK AA block hours increase (4.2%) has exceeded UA's(-3.5%) and DL's(3.7%)(2015 data will probably change the DL ranking).

And block hours post merger are also up.

UA's latest fleet count increase might not be enough to recoup the block hours deficit it's run. A fleet increase of 2.7% might not be enough to recoup the hours lost(-3.5%).

AA 2015 block hours increase might be in the 1% range. 2016 appears to be flat (2% ASM growth offset by 2% gauge increase). So DL should pass AA's block hour increase using 2015 data(?) and continue to outperform in 2016.

UA's 2015 fleet increase should support a block hour increase. Obviously better utilization of the existing fleet could have a bigger impact on block hour changes. Even with these improvements UA will probably lag AA's recent performance.

Are we talking about pilot block hours or aircraft block hours? The company would claim the increase in widebody flying and therefore more augmented crews means more jobs, and better paying ones at that. I don't necessarily believe that though.

^^^ That's a/c block hours.

DL's pilot count is more than 500 above the count at the SLI and growing. (12434 vs 12961 on Feb 1)

Thats it? I figured with all the 717s it would be a bunch more. What did y'all park?

Thanks.
Website, using DOT data, shows an increase of 5.

There has also been quite a few military long term LOA returns and furlough returns since the SLI which has added to the "active" pilot #'s without actually hiring.

Are mainline block hours increasing or just total block hours?

Where is that data published?

More block hours with less aircraft actually is a good thing, it means we're becoming more efficiently operated. I like it. If true.

We're continuing the trend in 2016 with a 23 Mainline net aircraft increase along with a net decrease of 14 express planes according to the 8-K last month. During the earnings conference call management acknowledged that they're up gauging equipment and replacing some express flying with the A319's and 737-700s because the customers prefer mainline equipment and reliability.

747-200s, DC-9s, and old 757s.

At the peak of merger mania synergizing, we dropped below 11,000.

Mergers are never 1+1=2!

You lost 1,400'ish post merger before adding back up?

Yep! Mergers are fun...

Thanks. Was curious about those numbers.

Delta also merged just prior to the worst collapse in economic activity since 1930. Not really a fair comparison. IMO.

At least he is financing all the new jets :rolleyes:

Major airlines would not be nearly as profitable today if it weren't for the 4 major mergers of the last 8 years.

Does anyone else think it's strange that we are actually making a lot of money these days?