F/t's are about 60-70% of the overall hiring. There's three different agreements so they impact the monthly percentage slightly differently based on that month's hiring number.

"Struggling through training and all that entails doesn't mean we are all up to the same level after the check rides are passed."

A statement from a guy that did some review of training issues - guys that struggle as new hires are more likely to struggle later.

70% flows now. Envoy alone is 50%. Kinda crazy, two years ago we had JetBlue, Southwest, and Alaska pilots in the new hire classes, now those kinda guys and gals couldn't get on even if they wanted to. Not that I myself would recommend a sidestep maneuver, but just saying.' If AA is what you really want, like mentioned prior, off the street hiring should start going strong within the next couple years and not slow down. I think AA is a great place, but I'd have my stuff in at Delta and Alaska, because I think they're great places too.

I agree, pilots that struggle will for the most part always struggle, and a growing percentage are in that boat. My point is that MLs have committed themselves to those pilots in the not-to-distant future.

I'm also optimistic that many can possibly develop into pilots that work harder to have a better aptitude for this job. 1500 hours and an ATP isn't the automatic solution.

Agreed.

In my tenure here, I've flown with pilots (captains) that run the entire bell curve in airmanship, aptitude and recognition and embracement of the CRM and "good habits". Same with Eagle. I can only conclude that both traditional and modern methods and practices of hiring pilots are equally flawed and produce similar percentages of pilots in any given location on that curve. It truly is an individual thing. Thus, even though all qualified line pilots have passed their last training event and have cleared the minimum standards, not all are equal. Most importantly, we ALL should understand we all aren't equal to our best performance at all times, even if we fall into peak areas of the curve (as evaluated by others).

It's human nature to several shades of grey on any given day.

F/Ts make up 50-70% of the hiring today. But I don't know if that will hold out in the future. Starting in 2-3 years, retirements will increase steeply. 600-800+ each year. Right now, retirements are around 300-400 per year. To keep up they'll have to hire like Delta's been hiring, and at 800-1000 pilots a year, I can't see how they could keep Envoy and the others staffed if they continued to supply 70% of the new hires.

0.16% of applicants were non-military, non-flow were hired in 2015 and hiring seems to be tighter this year.

So you're telling me there's a chance!

Flow through agreements read "the lesser of X% or Y individuals". If hiring gates open wide, they'll take the lesser amount and pull in non military non flow new hires to augment the military and flow new hires...

That was my point. When hiring picks up there's no way flows will be able to account for 50-70% of hiring.