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Old 04-16-2017, 07:20 AM
  #201  
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Originally Posted by Pilotman520 View Post
What is a third lister? New hire since the merger?
LUS new hire after the AWA/US merger while there was no seniority list merger. There was a AWA list, a US list, and a third list for guys hired after the merger.
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Old 04-16-2017, 07:31 AM
  #202  
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Thanks for the projections Slice! Can anybody estimate how long it would take a new hire to hold reserve at CLT in the 73/320?
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Old 04-16-2017, 08:44 AM
  #203  
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Originally Posted by thedirtysanchez View Post
Thanks for the projections Slice! Can anybody estimate how long it would take a new hire to hold reserve at CLT in the 73/320?
New hires were able to transfer to CLT 320 in the last AE bid (March for June).
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Old 04-16-2017, 08:50 AM
  #204  
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737 might be forever since it's not based in CLT.

Junior 320 FO went to a Feb 2017 new hire eff June 1st. So he had about 1.5 months after training in MIA or LGA.

What do the financial people have to say "past performance is no guarantee of future performance"? It might be quick, it might be longer. Retirements keep the seat/base shuffle going.
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Old 04-16-2017, 09:37 AM
  #205  
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Originally Posted by Sliceback View Post
There are age demographics that will change future bidding. Right now CLT and PHL have the greatest percentage of retirements which will allow the quickest upgrades. But the current third listers in CLT and PHL overweight an future manning analysis as third listers end up dominating the seniority list.

Upgrade estimate for a Jan 2017 new hire based on achieving 65% relative seniority in a base using the Jan. 2017 manning -

2022. CLT
2023. PHL
2024. BOS, DCA, LAX, ORD, PHX
2025. DFW, MIA, LGA


All PHX data is suspect due to significant manning reduction.


Good numbers. However, I highly doubt one will be able to upgrade into CLT before LGA. Even with all the retirements and shuffling around I'd guess CLT, DFW and ORD will remain relatively senior and LGA/MIA will continue to be relatively junior.

Take me. I commute to PHL. But CLT is the easier commute. For now it's much more senior than PHL so I won't go there. But when the seniority picture changes people's basing choices will change as well.
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Old 04-16-2017, 10:58 AM
  #206  
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That's about what I figured. I'm an early 2014 hire, and estimate I'll be able to hold bottom G2 captain in DFW around 2022-23 timeframe.
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Old 04-16-2017, 11:47 AM
  #207  
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Originally Posted by mainlineAF View Post
Good numbers. However, I highly doubt one will be able to upgrade into CLT before LGA. Even with all the retirements and shuffling around I'd guess CLT, DFW and ORD will remain relatively senior and LGA/MIA will continue to be relatively junior.

Take me. I commute to PHL. But CLT is the easier commute. For now it's much more senior than PHL so I won't go there. But when the seniority picture changes people's basing choices will change as well.
I agree. IMO guys will migrate towards the 'better' bases, like CLT, so the demographic shift will change the current projections. But CLT's current 'senior' bid status will have the greatest change due to upcoming retirements. So how, and when, and at what seniority, the various demographic shifts occur is hard to project. But I highly doubt CLT will be senior to DFW in 20+ years when it might be a choice between a G2 CA future in CLT vs a G4 CA future in DFW.
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Old 04-16-2017, 05:20 PM
  #208  
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All 75/76 flying migrating to JFK/PHL/MIA?
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Old 04-17-2017, 07:27 AM
  #209  
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Originally Posted by Hueypilot View Post
That's about what I figured. I'm an early 2014 hire, and estimate I'll be able to hold bottom G2 captain in DFW around 2022-23 timeframe.
You're a touch more optimistic than me (but close, especially if early outs happen in any significant numbers). March ’14 hire and should hit 8000ish (current junior DFW CA) in 12/2023. That's about 2.5 years after first upgrade opportunity (LGA in mid-2020?) in my estimation, considering everything stays status quo.
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Old 04-17-2017, 07:29 AM
  #210  
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There are only about 500 or so third listers
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