You are correct, and that is exactly what it will take, a generalized AI.

But that's still a long way off, and frankly no one really even has any idea how to do it. They're still just trying to design systems which can function reliably on a narrow scope of problems. Windows software which can fill out a boilerplate legal pleading is not the same as one that can represent you at trial...

I've never said it won't happen, to the contrary, I just have a better understanding than most of what it will take, and where we actually stand today.

But a generalized AI will raise a whole host of other issues, since it could probably replace every profession known except for one (the oldest one... ). In order to function at that level it will also need a lifetime's worth of experience (either real or copied), and a conscience/awareness. Ethical dilemma anyone? Not the mention the whole terminator problem which gets very, very real if a machine becomes aware.

 

Incorrect. At least one prominent cargo CEO has famously stated that single-pilot airliners is his objective. This study proposal didn't get into the bill by accident; it was included because of special-interest lobbyists.

It's becoming increasingly obvious how strongly the elitists, politicians, and the technology crowd despise employees and humans in general.

 

Who? What carrier?

 

Memphis....

 

Uber considers human drivers a temporary, annoying, inconvenience too.

The problem some of these "visionary" leaders have is not some much the vision, but the timelines and realities of making it happen.

They also think they'll benefit from ANY quasi-official background noise about automation, on the premise that it might scare labor a bit. Don't fall for it (at least not this century).

 

..........

 

The sky is falling! The sky is falling! The sky is falling! Good lord help us the sky is falling!

 

The last generation of military fighter pilots has probably been born already. Mil is pushing unmanned cargo ops and the FAA has recently certified an optionally manned UH-1 helo. It's going to happen on the civilian side as well, it's just a matter of time. Guys in the business now are probably pretty safe, but the future of aviation is going to be vastly different from today. There might not even be much of a future of aviation. Why travel to Orlando when you can experience the sights, sounds, and feel of Disney in your own virtual reality world? Do you really need that widget from Amazon delivered when you can 3D print one at home?

My 5 year old said the other day he wanted to be a pilot (although he may have said pirate, I'm not too sure). I don't think he will retire 60 years from now after a career in manned aviation. There's better odds of him being a pirate than that happening.

 

No. Definitely No. While some senior DoD political appointees talked out of their arses about unmanned tacair a few years ago, both USN and USAF are starting 6th gen fighter programs and both are manned.

The only real benefits to be gained are slightly better endurance and higher G's. But you if you really need a 15 G dogfighter, you can have an AP mode that pulls the turn and takes the shot and then gives the jet back to the pilot when he wakes up. Never say dogfighting is dead but most future a2a combat (and recent historical examples) involve missiles at longer range. Reality is that AI type advances will be used to augment human pilot capabilities, the human may become battle-manager, adult supervision, and installed backup. But he'll still be there.

The risks are legion. We don't have AI that can adapt on the fly so if they bad guys figure out how to defeat it they'll have a window of opportunity to do a lot of damage. Hacking, jamming are more significant issues. A human can go into autonomous lone wolf mode but that would be very risky to let automation do that. There are also major unresolved ethical, political, and legal issues.

The ONLY way this is happening in the near future is if somebody else does it and succeeds... we might conceivably need to react to that. But there's only two players of concern and we generally know what they're up to.

Mil is exploring unmanned cargo in the TACTICAL realm. They are not even REMOTELY considering unmanned airlift in the real world, for all the same reasons that airlines aren't.

There is no consideration for unmanned aircraft with pax on board, except for battlefield medevac where the only other option is to die while waiting.


Future generations may well be less inclined to travel because they have more entertainment options at home. But population growth and increasing affluence will probably more than offset that. I would anticipate that living one's life primarily in a VR world would be the province of the dregs of society.

Home 3D printers will work for some things (like a spatula), but not for any of the highly complex consumer products (particularly anything with embedded digital computers) which we take for granted. The technology to 3D print something like a computer monitor at home is centuries away. That's comparable to leaping from hammering out iron horseshoes to making a titanium jet engine N2 core in your garage.

 

I would say the only real benefit of unmanned tacair is not risking the political fallout of a shootdown. Look at the latest Syrian strike - no one came close to penetrating their airspace. Why risk it when you can launch missiles or a wave of drones from over the horizon? I thought I heard that the next gen fighter was going to be optionally manned. I could be wrong there.

How are people going to feel when you can get them LA to Paris in an hour on an unmanned scramjet? Oh it's a fully configurable detachable cabin equipped with a ballistic escape system in case of any issues. Or you can sit with your knees in your chest for 14 hours on the current fleet of aircraft because it's got a pilot up front. Maybe Musk is going to bore tunnels across the US and link cities together with 700 mph mag lev trains running off green energy.

I don't know what the future is for airline travel. I do know we went from a powered kite with one dude laying on it to landing on the moon in 65 years. 20 years ago no one was thinking you would be walking around with a powerful computer in the palm of your hand that instantly connected you to the entire world. Something will come along to revolutionize travel. I'm not smart enough to know when and what form that will take.

The horse and buggy manufacturers never thought the automobile would catch on.

Interesting conversation though.