I totally disagree, self driving cars, and fully autonomous aircraft are orders of magnitude more complex than single pilot. As someone who programs in Pyton, and R for ML, the claim of autonomous items by manufacturers is dubious at best. However, Boeing really needs a gimmick for selling its new 797, or more importantly, a replacement 737 that can compete with Airbus. There will never be fully autonomous aircraft until AI progresses to biological systems, which isn't in our lifetimes.

This isn't about eliminating pilots, it's about streamlining the airspace system so a Machine learning assisted autopilot, can fly the aircraft direct to destination, without any separation criteria. Doppler Shift Lidar can actually see the wake from other aircraft. However, you still need someone in the cockpit to manage the system. The AI is essentially replacing ATC, not the aircraft operator. For safety's sake, aviate, navigate, communicate, will be reduced to just aviate.

We are already screwed with FAR 117, because once the FAA approves single pilot, even if the PWA requires 2 pilots, one of the pilot's duty periods, doesn't count against the FAR limits. How long will that contract item last, when the company is putting pilots on trips with 18+ hour deadhead days? This is already happening now, it happened to me.

Neither the Starship Enterprise nor the Millennium Falcon were single pilot or autonomous. Could a computer complete the Kessel Run in less than 12 parsecs? :D

This may not be far off the mark. You can't go single pilot until the automation can *reliably* handle the 6-8 pilot incapacitations which occur in the US each year. That means full-auto needs to be ready for prime-time before you go single pilot on pax airliners.

But there will be a single pilot during the transition, that will last some number of years until they demonstrate the reliability of the automation. My guess is a few years to find some bugs, then twenty more to rinse, wash, repeat a few times. It will end up taking decades longer than anticipated, and somebody will likely go bankrupt (or get bailed out by the government, either or).

I agree, the FAA doesn't move fast and airlines still fly planes developed in the 60's. I don't think being a pilot is anymore at risk than any other job of disappearing. AI will eventually be able to write software, robots will be able to clean/cook, AI will fight wars and machines will build houses. And someday the end of the world will also come and humans will live on other planets.

Maybe we should start with an AI Flight Attendant (I know, that's an oxymoron) and see how that works out.

I for one welcome our robot overlords!

"This is horrible!"
"Unsafe!"
"We'll fight them in the streets!"
"Over my dead body!"

"Wait. They'll pay me $500 an hour to take over in case of lost link? Um...ok."

One thing Machine learning can do extremely well is determine if the pilot is incapacitated, and alert the company. This isn't really an issue because the ground, in conjunction with an FA, could take over. It would simply become a priority aircraft. 100% of the problem is the interaction of an AI aircraft with a conventional one. For instance, if a non AI aircraft next to you on a parallel approach overshoots the approach path, the AI will freak out. There is no way to solve this problem without banning all non AI aircraft. That is why you still need at least one pilot - for when the AI does something dumb, which will be a lot.



This is the same for if all cars were AI, and the roadways were 100% clear of all obstructions, we would already have self driving cars.

Having first hand knowledge/experience of how RPAs are operating both in the overseas and stateside training environments I don't see pilotless aircraft in my lifetime. Maybe my son's lifetime, but definitely not mine. RPA's were supposed to be cleared to fly in the NAS with no chase aircraft by 2015. The FAA is still dragging their feet on it. It'll be years if not decades before things get ironed out for cargo/pax carrying RPA's.

Hummm... Might be time to get that Remote Pilot certificate ...

I chuckle at all this y’all of pilotless planes-every time I see the 15 guys it takes to load and service my plane every leg.

Much less complicated work than what we do.....

We will see single pilot 121 operations utilizing ground based backups in our lifetime.

It’s hubris to think otherwise.

Completely agree. I don't think we'll ever see single pilot ops until AI has the same intelligence and can also think like humans. That's a big jump from Siri. The big question is when will that happen? Hopefully it'll be 30+ years down the road (or not in our lifetime). When it does happen, single pilot ops will be the last thing we're worried about... Article below is a 20+ min read but sums up what we could expect from AI in the future.

https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artif...olution-1.html

Whether we see it in our lifetime, or whether it takes longer is irrelevant. Sort of like speculating on an aircraft mishap a few hours after it happens: what do you prove if you're right?

However, there are many tech companies and entrepreneurs (American and foreign) that will pursue this technology, irrespective of what the pilot unions think. And these innovators will continue to make progress. The improvements and spinoffs that are a result of this pursuit will drive new technologies over the coming decades (think "space program").

ALPA, SWAPA, and APA can partner / be involved / be on the committees / etc... but vehement proclamations that "this will not stand!" are futile and foolish.

Imagine telling Doolittle in the early 1930's that we'd be landing on the moon in the 1960's.

Probably a bad analogy, because I'm sure Doolittle would have supported efforts to make it so.

It’s not going to be AI when it happens.

Instead of a FO, you’ll have a dispatcher who is standing by as an additional Crewmember on 6 airplanes in flight. When one of his aircraft encounters an IFE they will become the “FO” on that flight.

This has been going on for years... this will happen soon, there will be 1 pilot in the left seat to start.. GET READY FOR YOUR NEW FO... If you are under the age of 45, have a plan B

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCJqeZ2Rwh8

Never tell me the odds.

What happens when there is an RA? What happens when ATC says cancel approach clearance and proceed direct to a fix that isn't on your flight plan? What happens when ATC gives you a step down that the airplane cannot do? What happens.... I could go on and on. So a robot can program an autopilot under ideal conditions with an optimally performing ILS. I could teach a 6 year old to do it and fly to an autoland. But the robot can't land in a 30 kt gusty crosswind. It more than likely cannot adjust to abnormal, non-profile clearances (or clearances at all). Plus, do we want to trust Siri or Alexa to understand a guy mumbling into a mic...or doing literally what the controller says even it's not what he means?

As far as single pilot, the amount of money it's going to take to build the infrastructure to support it is going to be WAY WAY more than the cost savings on labor. And then how do we get those experienced Captains if they don't first spend time as an FO somewhere? We will just magically have experienced Captains? "Hi, this is CA Steve. This is his first ever flight in a jet and he's the only one here. Good luck!" The remote operator is also a bad idea. I can't tell you how many times I cross the country with inop satellite wifi systems or no ACARS signal. Anyone who thinks a remote operator is going to be able to assist the in flight pilot with a situation like what happened on Southwest is delusional. I don't doubt we will be replaced by automated systems at some point. To say that it's right around the corner is to be lacking any perspective of the complexity of airline operations.

Technology is often exponential in growth. Look at the rapid development of Tesla, The Internet, SpaceX, etc.

Automation has huge value and is coming faster and faster. When we over stretch (Tesla manufacturing automation as an example) everyone steps back and recalibrates. That doesn’t mean and end just a fork.

Where the huge and safe savings are is in the white collar world and you are seeing huge amounts of dollars and results as it relates to automation and AI. We moved some functionality at my work to automation that could perform the same function in two minutes that took a person eight hours to do. The cost was negligible, accuracy improved, speed improved, and a savings of $50k a year (per person and it was close to 40-50 people). The math here is simple and we pour about 50% of that savings back into further development.

The WC world will drive this, it is growing exponentially, and it will pervade all things in the next 10-20yrs. Replacing 20,000 pilots isn’t worth the effort. Replacing millions of office and factory workers is. Once that is mastered airline pilots just get swept up in the inevitable.

The bigger question remains when we automate out the workforce, what do all of us do? Make no mistake though it is coming for all of us, and I am helping to drive the bus.

Literally nothing in your post is accurate.

The aircraft can easily avoid TA/RAs with the new ADS-B mandate. Currently unmanned aircraft have the ability electronically “sense and sequence” themselves timing arrivals to the second.

Also, landing in 30 knot winds means nothing to the airplane. Only the pilot knows it’s windy. Unmanned aircraft can land within 1.5m of a predetermined point every single time, regardless of weather conditions.

The Siri-Alexa example is a non-starter. It won’t be AI, the aircraft will only do what it’s told...just like when Otto flies now.

As far as the telemetry is concerned, private space flight cures that. Once Elon starts launching cheap micro-communication satellites bandwidth becomes cheap and coverage is complete.

We are about to be England in 1851. The new Crystal Palace is going to cause a major paradigm shift.

That's why you will have 1 pilot.. and have you not thought of adjustments? meaning since the FAA, airlines, and government approve of this there will be massive changes in ATC, they have already been talking about changes.... rules will change and rules will be changing to support this type of industry change. Governments and corporation profits are much more important than an airline pilot, you should know this by now. If you think they will just put robots in the planes without major overhauls to ATC and rules etc, then you are kidding yourself. Powerful people want to replace humans with machines to take humans out of the equation in all aspects of life. I used to think the people who said humans will be replaced by robots and machine were crazy conspiracy theorists... now just open up your eyes! Powerful people are replacing humans in the workplace at record pace, there will soon be no jobs left and soon be no need for humans, just robots catering to the global elite... All this was crazy to me years ago, but now its actually happening... everything will change for the robots, not the human.. governments are already adjusting and yes, the FAA will change and adjust to the demands of A.I. Sorry to break the news to you since its been out in the open for more than 5 years! lol

I'm referring only to the example of in the video above. I have no doubt that in the next 20 years, there would be the potential for fully automated airplanes. But they cannot exist in the current environment. It would take a momentous shift in the entire aviation infrastructure and that takes time....and A LOT of money. There are still airlines that operate on 1970s IT systems flying aircraft built in the 90s.

Right now and in the near to mid term future, the infrastructure is not there to support it. It is going to take several decades of testing and technology improvements before we ever see one enter service. Yes, a robot can program an autopilot to land a 737. Good for the programmers. Many, many airports have inadequate approach procedures. They would need to be developed and built to suit the new aircraft. And then there is the capital needed to replace every aircraft currently flying. That 737 that the robot landed has very limited Autoland capabilities. Toss in some windshear and a snow covered runway and things get really interesting. And remember, robots can't see weather beyond what the radar tells them...which is still a limited resource in a lot of cases. The only thing that would have saved the Air France flight in the Atlantic was better training. The Autopilot is of no help when all the sensors fail...

Well, probably not all aspects....:D

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDxBnYsjdKM

The system is already in testing in Europe.

Our dispatchers went from working 6 flights at a time to 18 ... I could see a remote pilot backing up 18 flights at a time. What could happen?

What about AI ATC(monitored by a human). Pushing instructions to planes with CPDLC like commands and the pilots just acknowledging unless they see different. Borrrrrrring

Dispatchers are working more flights due to greater automation. The ratio will just continue to increase until they disappear.

I just love the mission of putting the population out of work. If people don’t have money how do they buy things. The middle class American dream is already harder and harder to attain because jobs that can support a family are few and far between. This leads to social issues because both parents have to work and no one is minding the shop at home. Now we are trying to eliminate one of the few well paying middle class lines of work left out there? For what? I honestly have no idea what my kids (kindergarten) are going to do for a living that makes any kind of decent money.

2 minds are better than one. It's a pretty simple rule of thumb that has been time tested, but it's the hype behind driverless vehicles that I think is driving much of this.

The problem is some politicians and others who probably haven't spent much time in a flight deck recently are buying the hype. I do worry that they will make financially driven decisions that will compromise safety.

Even driverless cars have significant hurdles, and I think some politicians, engineers, and regulators have rushed its technology.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ash-in-Arizona

Unfortunately it takes an accident for people to start appreciating the limitations of technology.

The problem is with aircraft accidents consequences are far worse when things go south... even on a cargo aircraft. Which is why I think its good ALPA and others work to slow this research way, way down, before someone gets the crazy idea to try this thing on 121 ops and someone gets hurt.

I think huge problems remain even from a single pilot perspective

Security
- One person at the controls of a potential WoMD. (German Wings)
- Hackable interfaces (all remote tech will have vulnerabilities, if they don't today they will tomorrow)

Redundancy
- We take flying aircraft for granted because we do it all of the time, but just talk to a new student and one will discover it is not a "simple learning experience" a lot of intuition "experience" goes into dealing with (People, Equipment, Weather, Equipment Failure, regulation, and other components)
- Single pilot ops are much more prone to fatigue (judgement errors)

Judgement
-Common sense isn't so common, and computers rank near the bottom of the rating scale when it comes to having it, which includes AI.

Technology
- Equipment failure...
- The AI of today are essentially graphics processors that use inputs (experience) to slowly derive the weightings of a formula to learn the right outputs for a given input.

The problem is as most humans know, no formula can accurately model the proper output in all cases, no matter how careful weighted the components of the formula are, because no formula or sets of formula will be comprehensive enough to compare with humans. Our brains were developed over long, long periods of time, in ways engineers can't even dream of right now with current tech. (Just the placement of our neurons, or the folds in our brains are unique) Graphics processers are well.... very rigid.

Our judgement in the flight deck stems from a lot more than just inputs and outputs from flying. It comes from life experience, of simple stuff we take for granted.

If it turns out AI has been developed good enough to exercise the necessary judgment in our crazy world, to fly aircraft, then we might as well have robots for senators or CEOs.

In the end people need to work with people, which is why 2 is such a strong team. They both bring different perspectives, and often can act synergistically when it comes to good judgment, while providing a level of redundancy that R2D2 simply can't match.

If the seats are cheap enough, management keeps or increases their bonuses, shareholders are kept happy, all of these will be acceptable risks. Acceptable losses if something happens.

Many in Congress will support this. The Senator from Arizona used to comment while boarding that what we do is easy.

To smooth things over Congress will ensure everyone is provided with LPPs ... Labor Protective Provisions ... They have done this before.

Everyone wins.

Negotiate profit sharing, get skin in the game, if you think you will ride all reward and no risk you are going to be disappointed. The world is changing.

[QUOTE=Qotsaautopilot;2578391]I just love the mission of putting the population out of work. If people don’t have money how do they buy things. The middle class American dream is already harder and harder to attain because jobs that can support a family are few and far between. This leads to social issues because both parents have to work and no one is minding the shop at home. Now we are trying to eliminate one of the few well paying middle class lines of work left out there? For what? I honestly have no idea what my kids (kindergarten) are going to do for a living that makes any kind of decent money.[/QUOTE

Exactly!

Well in 1900 the big problem was disposition of horse poop. And who can forget the the whale oil shortage. I'm safe, I have all my money in corset manufacture.:D

In about 1915 my great grandfather, a good person but not so good businessman, picked up a great product to sell on his route. Buggy whips. I kid you not.

Later, he had a 12 room hotel made of wood. He was smart, he saved money by not carrying fire insurance on it. It was heavily mortgaged. Then one night it burned to the ground. The bank wanted its money. He was not so good of a businessman. I kid you not.

I believe I am wiser than he.

I think you are spot on! Ive already accepted I won't be retiring from this profession. At the end of the day, its all about the money they save by removing us. They will likely say its safer to fly with a robot because they don't make mistakes like humans.

This is not only happening to pilots but it will happen to many other professions. Specially as AI takes off.

Hopefully we can elect a government that actually cares about the worker and not only the profits of corporations....It time the American worker votes a little more wisely to secure our future.

Really? Because when I dictate a text message I want siri to send, a compact robotic hand comes out of my phone and physically types the message on my screen......a robot has no need to press buttons when its wired into the system.

I won't be dissapointed ... Not my problem. Yours.

And that never fails....

Actually, if you just said no! Problem solved! We're the problem here not AI. Hell if I'm getting in any cockpit for 8+ hours by myself, there's a reason the military give supplements to single pilots crossing the pond.. What their really talking about here is fully autonomous A/C. They're just ringing the bell for a few years to get you used to single pilot b4 they ring the bell for no pilot! (Pavlov get it?)

The mighty guppy overhead might not be the best representation of the situation. But if that is the only overhead you know ...

I remember sitting in the 777 a few years ago ... Watching the various bleed lights cycle on and off on the overhead while the bird was figuring out its bleed problem ... All the while me and bubba were slowly eating our breakfast while enjoying the morning view of somewhere in Europe ... It took care of the problem and reported it ... I wrote it up as well so I could feel like I was an active participant in the situation.

It's coming. :(

That picture gave me nightmares when you first posted it.