Single pilot planes are coming.
 

If cargo planes are allowed to be single pilot, what are the chances airlines won't want to have the same cost reductions?

US Pilots hit out at FAA study into single-pilot cargo aircraft ǀ Air Cargo News
http://www.aircargonews.net/news/airline/freighter-operator/single-view/news/us-pilots-hit-out-at-faa-study-into-single-pilot-cargo-aircraft.html

“Single pilot planes are coming”

Seems like that’s the opposite of what the article concludes. I’m with you though, it’s in the future but this link doesn’t suppprt the idea that it’s coming anytime soon.

Probably not in our careers.

Airlines took a huge step forward with CRM. Why the hell take a huge step back.

A “pilot” on the ground is not worth half a crap. Single pilot is probably decades away-if at all.

If it were safe, why wouldn’t cruise ships do it? (God knows, cruise ship companies are 100% as cheapskates as any airline could ever dream to be.)

This is significant in the sense that it's really the first time a major regulatory body has even hinted at considering this. Not sure if they think it's actually worth looking at, or just going through the motions at the behest of some political master (who in turn is beholden to people who operate big cargo planes).

Thats why there will NEVER BE A PILOT SHORTAGE!! They will always find a way to take care of it, Airbus, Boeing, NASA have been studying for years about replacing pilots with robots and machines... it first starts with single pilot and then the robots take over, first starting at the Fedex UPS level and my opinion is we are less than 5 years away for the cargo sector to be experimenting with this in the cockpits.... a little longer until the airlines get it though... 10 years though is an eternity in technology. Dont be shocked if in 10yrs or less the airlines start with the 1 pilot standard with the assistance of a robot in the right seat! Its all how you sell it over the media... technology is sold as "so cool" now a days on the TV after 5 years of successful robot flying and 1 pilot as the backup on Fedex and UPS flights then its gonna be "so cool" to have a robot fly you to Paris! It's coming guys, and you better get ready for it! Especially the young guys... The airlines don't give a crap about you...

I think it’s much more of a threat to cargo operators.

Overwater first.

I’d really be worried about this if I flew cargo.

Unfortunately, the general public-and their dumbass DC scumbag reps-give not 1/2 a rat’s ass what happens on cargo flights.

This was written into the FAA reauthorization by politicians.

It’s a STUDY.

Good on ALPA/IPA/IBT for trying to squash even a study - camel’s nose under the tent isn’t good - but a study does not policy make, nor does it mean imminent doom for cargo flying jobs.

Mid-30s, fly boxes, not concerned...sky ain’t falling.

I'd be worried if I flew cargo, and expected to live to 120 (and expected the FAA to raise the retirement age to 110).

Keep in mind this thing is win/win for the people behind it. Best case, they get to fire half their pilots someday. Worst case, the publicity might scare some pilots into making concessions to help preserve their jobs in the face of a (highly improbable) threat.

This will take a long, long time and we'll see it coming years out. What these people are fantasizing about doing is eliminating pilots in CURRENT aircraft, which were not designed for that. The costs of retofitting and certifying the needed technology probably exceed the costs of the pilots over the life of the planes.

The time to worry is when manufacturers start trying to "bake" this sort of capability into new designs... but they won't do that unless they KNOW that it can certified, sold, and operated and they know the precise roadmap to certification. That last is so far beyond the technical capability of the FAA as to be laughable. Don't believe me? Google "NextGen"... :rolleyes:

"I'll take 'Robust Data Links' for $800, Alex."

https://www.jeopardy.com/about/cast/alex-trebek

This sort of thing will happen eventually.

And then an accident will occur because of it.

And then it will stop. Forever.

We can all see what a stupid idea it is, but mgmt and politicians have to find out the hard way.

IMO, political and business interests who are enamored with tech, innovation, and change at all costs, and for their own sake, will rush into this with catastrophic consequences.

Not forever, but it will be set back decades due to political backlash.

Yup.

The fundamental problem with auomated airlines (and other vehicles) is you need operators, manufacturers, customers, regulators, and politicians to all be in agreement. And in the case of airplanes *somebody* has to make a VERY large investment, with an ROI timeline of decades. Politicians and airline CEO's don't get ahead by looking at the long-term, so really that will be up to the airframers (who will need some degree of assurance that it can be certified and sold). Chicken or Egg?

I don't think a robot could ever move these switches, I think we're safe. :D http://postachio-images.s3.amazonaws...1c2a7db0ee.jpg

File this in the "just because we can doesn't mean we should" drawer...

The FAA has been working on CPDLC for 15+ years and you don't see yet in domestic airspace. By the time they're ready for pilotless aircraft we'll be using Star Trek transporters.

There is no such thing as an impenetrable network, and that one reason is why we won’t have single pilot airplanes.

True. However, if we can sell a seat cheap enough, and management keeps or increases their bonuses, stockholders get their returns, and losses are acceptable, almost everybody wins. ;)

Trying to antagonize IBM?

We will have single pilot cargo ops within 15-20 years if not sooner. My money is on 10-15 years. Single pilot passenger ops will come 10-15 years after the cargo carriers. Single pilot assisted by remote pilot on the ground. The pilot is there to override in case of emergency, computer hack, or loss of contact with ground station. Don’t kid yourselves... it’s coming. And a lot sooner than everybody thinks. I hope I’m wrong.

The time is now to put it in contract that we will require 1000+ an hour if they want single pilot ops. Regardless of the circumstances.

Very true.

Hackers already see airliners as targets.

They absolutely would get in and highjinks would ensue.

After some catastrophic accidents, frightened airline CEOs will yell: “How soon can we retrofit the whole fleet like it was before? Re-hire all pilots, at double pay if you have to! Money is no object, because our ticket sales have gone to zero! My own job is at risk! :eek: :p

Personally, I don't feel like single-piloted will be a big benefit to cargo/pax operators. How many times have you reported for an all-nighter feeling less than 100%? How many times have you pressed on at the end of a long duty day just because you figured 50%+50%= 100% of one pilot? I could count at least 3 duty periods this month I would have said uncle if I'd been forced to go it alone.

I think the restrictions on duty day and irregular ops would not make sense single-piloted. Until UAV's are proven with cargo ops, I think passenger pilots will be safe.

Ships do do this, they have harbor pilots that join the crew for docking the ship. They make the big bucks too, $400K is the average salary.

Single pilot is a threat to augmented crews, where widebody staffing would be reduced.

The only people who would advocate for single-pilot transport category operations OR reducing augmented crews on long-haul flights would be people who have never flown a jet single pilot and/or never done long-haul flying.

I think you’d have a hard time finding any pilot that advocates for single pilot operations. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

Ah it’s been a month, cue the “omg robots are taking over our jobs” post.

That’s like saying “only one guy is doing anything when it’s his leg...”

We all know how this stuff works. Cruise and cargo ships always have multiple people involved in sailing them. One guy might be at the controls, but that doesn’t mean he’s the only guy doing anything.

The bridge of any of those large ships is never left up to just one person.

APA is for it.

There will be many advocates from the pilot group when the time comes. The pay would increase, and the chance to rotate into a ground safety pilot would be ideal for most that live in base, and want a break.

Actually... sometimes the bridges of large cargo ships are left unattended. They have autopilot, and radar which sounds a proximity alarm. And if the AP fails, the ship won't roll inverted or anything really bad.

It's up to the master, and prudence dictates you only do that in un-congested open ocean. But prudence doesn't always prevail.

Here's a link to contact your representatives regarding this issue.

http://www.alpa.org/advocacy/cta/faa-744

Wrong, just wrong. Speaking out of your arse.

The pay would increase? The only damn reason the airlines would go for this catastrophically bad idea is to cut costs, why the hell would they increase pay?

I would have agreed that it was coming in 5-10 years. I was one of the firm believers that the public would be all for it so long as a ticket was 20 dollars cheaper. But then two things happened. One was a self-driving Uber killed a cyclist in Tempe. The other was the Southwest incident. Hearing that Captain ask for things like extended final to get configured; asking for medical personnel to meet the aircraft, things like that. You cannot, absolutely cannot, program an airplane to do things like that and keep the passengers safe. And as for the self-driving car blasting the pedestrian, I've heard every argument in the book. But the pedestrian wasn't in a crosswalk! Okay, so what happens when a kid runs out after a ball and the self-driving car doesn't do what it's supposed to do?

My point is, ultimately, the public does not want this crap.

Fighting this is like the blacksmith fighting the automobile or more currently teamsters fighting driverless trucks. We might be able to delay a little while but the writing is on the wall. Single pilot and pilotless planes will happen, the only question is when.

That said, I support ALPA fighting the good fight but all they can do is delay. I wouldn't carry high hopes for any measure of real success.

If I had been driving that vehicle in Tempe that cyclist would be just as dead. It just wouldn't be in the news. People will forget about Captain Cool when they can save $10 per seat to go see the rat.

You should look into the Tempe incident more closely.

I believe lidar was active. (It can “see” far better than any human.)

The initial statement by the sheriff was incorrect. The car should have been able to avoid this accident. Uber’s AI appears to be at fault. Just like I predicted, these systems are just parlor tricks, and people are dying because of it.

Anyone who understands computing at all knows that the kind of AI we now see is not anywhere near ready for this. There as some very basic differences between how computers work and how the brain works. Investors and technology circle jerks are attempting to play like these issues don’t exist. (Hint: all the big evangelists for this stuff have financial stakes. None actually work in AI.)

I think the pedestrian was first spotted about 15 seconds prior.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/samabuelsamid/2018/03/21/uber-crash-tape-tells-very-different-story-from-police-report-time-for-some-regulations/amp/

This stuff is far from ready for prime time.

I never said the car shouldn't have performed better. I said I would've hit the biker too :). Just because cars aren't ready yet doesn't mean in a few years they'll won't be mostly there. What is easier to fix, a software glitch in a car's autopilot or getting 100 million Americans to put down their phones when they're driving? Once computer driving is common flying won't be far behind.

We won’t end up going from 2 pilots to 1 to zero. It will be directly from 2 to zero. There’s no advantage to single pilot, especially augmented with a remote system.

For what it’s worth, I don’t see the biggest danger of this to be aircraft/pilot related. When talking about advanced networks the biggest danger is network security.

When you automate the second pilot via a remote network, it becomes possible for someone else to intercept and augment that network. It’s the same challenge with the concept of a pilotless aircraft. Hacking a network of pressurized tin cans carrying 100+ people or several tons of cargo gives you a nice little missile to play around with.

The largest argument I normally hear is that “the military has done this for years and never had an incident.” That we know of. And for the record, the military is a small network of several hundred drones that are operated discretely. The pool of people knowledgeable in the operation of the advanced networking of these drones is relatively small, and the work required for someone to intercept and augment the network is high, with I high probability of data interference detection.

Make the same system commonplace and widely deployed across tens of thousands of daily operations and the chance of network intrusion detection goes way down. Additionally, the Regs don’t keep up with the ever-changing technology marketplace. Certifying new, more secure data management systems for aviation is a grueling process. The yield would be that hackers would have access to older coding, technology, and systems that would over time become easier to manipulate.

How that manipulation affects an aircrafts operation is to be determined. But anyone questioning the validity of data systems security need only to ask how hard it would be to bring an entire TRACON to the floor by precisely placing and activating several VHF transmitters on the right frequencies in the right places. Even Guard isn’t safe. The reason this DOESN’T happen is because it would take a serious, concerted effort of labor. An automated airliner network would only take access to a port on the network, which could happen from the comfort of ones couch.

WHEN the airlines, politicians, and manufacturers debut single pilot airplanes and pilotless airplanes, I foresee the first casualty to be the cause of a nefarious individual with an axe to grind, and access to the network.

In data management systems, it’s not if, it’s WHEN will a breach occur.