is this your second account No Name? IMO biofuels and clean energy will be more of an area of concentration in the next 10 years.

Obviously things might hit a snag, that is pretty much predicated on the FAA getting all UAS's down to half a pound to transmit ADS-B data by 2023.

Well autonomous trains are here. Not in the US yet, but overall in the world railroad trains are being converted.

What concerns me here is a ton the SV money is going into this tech. And government is also participating and even helping to fund research with taxpayer dollars (for military applications that will inevitably trickle down).

One thing I like to do is read the Aviation Herald site. And think about how could this incident be prevented with automation? It's an amazingly large percentage of events. There are of course other events that are mechanical in nature, and could not be prevented, but how could automation handle them? In aviation as you know oftentimes there is not a right or wrong answer, just a different one. Divert to this airport, or that one? And why? Deviate around weather one way or another? The FAA already certifies non-deterministic outcomes..,they are called humans.

So, you think the only real obstacle to having paying customers on an actual for-profit small passenger carrier is getting UAS's under half a pound?

No, but I think the other issues will be hammered out by then. That was, in my mind, the biggest hiccup from an FAA standpoint. It's possible that see and avoid tech will negate it however.

Just an FYI, by small air carrier I am referring to 135 type ops in air taxis.

About a year old. It does conflict with their newer press releases a bit. Basically, they state that for single pilot you basically need autonomous which if you're going to do it, just go all the way. Anyway, interesting read, re: single pilot freight coming first. I for one do not understand the difference between freight and pax ops though or why regulators would care.

https://www.flightglobal.com/systems...134505.article

Struggling California town sees opportunity..
 

More food for thought...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/pilot-s...-training-hub/
A California town on the verge of bankruptcy could be the U.S.'s biggest hope to combat a looming pilot shortage that would have effects around the globe. Reedley, California officials hope a new partnership with Boeing could turn into a job revolution as airlines try to recruit an estimated 800,000 new pilots over the next 20 years.

Reedley, formerly a busy training ground for World War II pilots, saw its economy rise and fall with the agriculture industry, according to Town Manager Nicole Zieba. She said the town's 33% unemployment rate and 76% low-income residents made her desperate to give Reedley something different.

Zieba applied for and won a technology grant that allowed her to buy four electric planes. The purchase meant that Reedley now held the largest concentration of electric aircraft in the world.

"The goal was, could we pull our families out of poverty by showing them careers in aviation? Which sounds a little strange except if you know the industry crisis that's brewing in aviation," she told CBS News' Meg Oliver.

She planned to use the planes to start a low-cost pilot training program until they attracted Boeing's attention. The aerospace giant saw an opportunity to stoke an early passion for flying, and joined Zieba's quest by donating two flight simulators, usually reserved for professional pilots, to the local school district.

The pilot crisis also spurred Air Force veteran John Johnson to found a flight science degree program at Reedley Junior College. According to Johnson, half the current workforce of airline pilots will retire within the next 15 years, so he saw an opportunity to inspire the sleepy town's youth.

"This is the best time in the history of the United States to become a commercial airline pilot," he said. With his program, students learn to fly at a state school rather than paying for expensive flying lessons. Most importantly, they would have a job waiting for them when they graduate.

The opportunity inspired 22-year-old Lorenzo Rios, who will be graduating with the first class of pilots this summer.

Rios said the flight class Johnson started was his favorite in school. He stressed it was "crucial" to expose children and teenagers to the industry at a young age.

"I didn't know what I wanted to do coming out of high school, and when I started flying the simulators, it changed my whole life," he said.

Now, Rios loves being in the sky. "This right here, I mean you really can't beat that view, it's just absolutely gorgeous."

Rios, the son of an Army Lieutenant Colonel, said training in his newfound passion would have been a "tough situation" without the ability to pay for school with his father's VA benefits.

Johnson, a veteran himself, accounted for the struggle. "We're the only state school in California that allows the use of federal financial aid, and allows the use of VA benefits to help cover the costs of flight training," he said.

Boeing is set to announce its partnership with Reedley sometime on Wednesday, a mutually beneficial deal that town officials hope will transform the agricultural region into a pilot training hub.

European version of FAA updated roadmap.

• 2030 single pilot large aircraft (maybe single pilot cruise to start?)
• 2035 autonomous large aircraft

Now, it's unknown if aircraft will still need to be monitored by ground based pilots like the current operation of large military drones are. So, pilots may still be employed albeit in much smaller numbers. And will they still be pilots? Maybe just a "super dispatcher" where you do the dispatcher job plus monitor the equipment. Will pilots be furloughed and then interviewed for these jobs?

I dunno. It's safe to say the next 10-15 years will be interesting and we will all enjoy a long retirement from flying commercial aircraft. I hope the major unions are coordinating efforts here...an email to my union's governmental affairs was basically met with shrugged shoulders and what seemed like a total lack of awareness of what is coming down the pike. There is a LOT of money and smart people (plus taxpayer money) going into this stuff.

https://www.aviationtoday.com/2020/0...-systems-2025/

SpaceX and several other companies are launching satellites to beam high bandwidth internet access to the world...the US Air Force is using it in a trial for a secure link. If it's good enough for the military, you'd think it would be good enough for commercial aircraft.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-s...-idUSKBN1X12KM


.

This is not happening.

And you've obviously never used military SATCOM systems. I'm sure it's extremely reliable in the white house situation room and cheyenne mountain, but maneuvering tactical units across the globe don't enjoy great reliability. In fact we plan and train for serious degradation or loss of all comms because that's what we expect to happen. All mitigation for lost comms involves live humans doing stuff.

Airliner wifi is a pretty good parallel... works about 90% of the time on 90% of my flights. Works not at all on the other 10%.

I appreciate your continued confidence in our profession!

If you are correct I also win, because it means I'll (hopefully) still be employed flying airplanes.