They said it wouln't happen anytime soon
 

I once said it was coming and got a lot of blowback. Well, try this.
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I used to hope that I’d have 20 years left in this career. Lately, I’ve begun hoping that I have 10.

They might be able to pull it off with the smaller feeder airplanes, but we won’t see single pilot Boeing or Airbus products in our careers. Maybe even our lifetime.

Didn't the navigators and FEs say the same thing?

I’m sure they did. But going from three to two is much different than two to one (or zero).

I watched a major biz jet manufacturer recertify an airplane from an existing model into a new and improved model, they changed wings and engines, and it took them seven years to get it approved. That was a model they were already producing. It was a fairly simple change and it took years.

To get a single pilot airplane certified, all the important switches need to be within reach of the guy flying the machine. As it stands right now, those switches are scattered all over the panel and overhead. Boeing and Airbus would (probably) gladly do the research and development to move all these switches and make them accessible to the one pilot, but A. there’s no room to fit them all within reach, and B. It’ll cost millions and millions to research it, develop it and certify it. Who is supposed to pay for all that development? The airlines buying the plane. The manufacturers will have to add millions of dollars to the price of each copy to get a return on their legwork.

I don’t know where you work, but I guarantee my employer won’t pay one extra nickel more than necessary to buy another airframe, let alone a few million more per plane. They’ll gladly continue paying us hundreds of dollars to continue operating the airframes we already own. It doesn’t make any sense. But then again, we get our flight releases on dot matrix paper, so that confirms the frugality.

That doesn’t even include the billions it would cost to upgrade the technology to pull off single pilot or autonomous aircraft operations. We don’t have autonomous trains or ships, and they’re single and dual axis controlled, making them much easier to operate remotely. Once that technology is in place and deemed hack-proof, only then will I even consider worrying about single pilot operations in large airliners. And I still stand behind the statement I won’t see it in my career (20+ years to 65).

You mean the same employer that declined additional 747-8s at discount bargain prices in favor of “new” MD11s that were practically given to us. Totally agree with your point. Our company is beyond frugal and would prefer to fly our current fleet until the wings fall off. The delta for return on investment between buying a two pilot used 76 conversion and a brand new single pilot factory freighter is sufficient to make the additional investment required unattractive. I suspect the ACMI companies have similar time horizons in mind when buying aircraft.

Single pilot ops is a red herring meant to force pilot unions to waste money and political capital. The next logical step from two pilot aircraft are autonomous aircraft. Eliminating an entire category of labor is attractive. However, the political and societal hurdles are significant. Not worried about it.

I’ll worry when they implement automation into the basic shiz in society, til then....dream on, science boi.

If anything in the corporate world I'm seeing insurance crack down on single pilot ops. Those premiums have been going through the roof. And this is for aircraft already certified as single pilot. I expect the same thing to happen in the airline world if that ever becomes an option for them.

I've received a lot of comments on my first post, but consider this. Do you remember when we used floppy disks, and the modems were dial up? Hmm? Now my home runs on blue tooth. Moore's law states, the number of transistors on a microchip doubles every 2 years. I just bought the Macbook Air with the M1 chip that has 16 billion (no, billion is not a typo) transistors on the chip. And it doesn't need a cooling fan. The DOD is already testing dog flights with one aircraft using AI. So far AI is winning The bottom line, technology is running a warp speed. And costs are coming down. GA aircraft now come with avionics that surpasses many commercial aircraft. Insurance, it may be high at first but as the technology progresses it will come down. The two downsides are public acceptance and on the regulatory front, eventually a pilot will have to leave the seat for bodily functions.

Dog flights..?

https://i.ibb.co/wKbVBZy/7-A468755-C...0612-A6040.jpg

I've been told that there is at least one major insurance company currently researching how to underwrite single pilot and autonomous cargo aircraft.

Yup, you know the people I’m referring to. 😂😂

Its all ball bearings nowadays. https://images.app.goo.gl/LWFDuypFksWBywR4A

It’s a Big Push, never discount technology and how $ pushes other barriers that impede so called progress/cost savings.
Must remain vigilant it can happen whether it’s within 10 years or 30. No one here most likely has their fingers on these programs or insurance companies yet we have significant skin in the game, literally 50%.....

Flip your viewpoint 180, focus is not on small feeder aircraft or the Germanwings argument, etc., but the ease of pseudo single pilot ops on board long haul cargo being first. Keep 2 pilots up front, 1 Flyer 1 Sleeper and Autobot on the right. Don’t need 4 anymore that’s is a 50% reduction. Nothing I want, but that is what I would do. Nice Comfy Recliner Left Seater and your glorified cot behind it. Hal 2000 sitting right. Not “Inconceivable” at all is it. 797 canceled or not, it was in the schematics/plan so it was on its way. Virus may have delayed it or accelerated other ventures, no one really knows. Just enjoying my chair before the music starts playing. Music will play someday, chair will be pulled - that is undeniable

Cool story.

So what’s your background? Engineering, Data Science, CS with a specialty in AI?

Yes sir! This is a ploy by management to get labor chasing their tail on something that is way far off on the horizon. Does anyone find FedEx’s timing impeccable on this issue 3 months prior to bargaining openers?

Anybody who throws out Moore's law in relation to AI or aircraft automation has zero credibility. That's just sound bites from Newsweek, etc.

Nothing much to see here, AMFLIGHT's been doing it for years...


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Probably. It's a huge leap for large jets, and an incredibly vast leap for no-pilot ops. The real-world aviation ecosystem isn't built for that.

Might be concerned a bit if they actually implement autonomous road vehicles... that don't require a safety observer, and don't routinely kill people by running into large objects at full speed, a la Tesla.

And if they rush it, they'll end up with high-visibility accidents which will just set them back more decades. Atlas 3591 didn't get a whole lot of press... but if it had been unmanned, it would have lead for days (especially with Trump out of office).

This is another reason it won't happen soon... airline managers are interested only in next quarter's earning report, they're quite simply not in the business of making vast investments today with an expected ROI in 20-30 years.

The airframers will have to foot the bill alone, and it will be incremental... they'll slowly add the tech to new models so they can collect the data over many years.

At some point there may be a computer onboard which is virtually "flying" the plane as a shadow pilot to generate and record data for comparison.

Then there’s the RLA .....

Newsweek? I don't read Newsweek. And to answer the previous question my degree is Physics, with a post graduate degree in Aviation Technology, with an ATP, a total of 18000+ hrs. Happy now?

I’ve been prepping for my career transition to HVAC/plumbing. I’m petrified that I will be out of a job. I’m now getting concerned that the robots will be able to replace me there too.

Ah! Yes, a Physics degree doesn’t surprise me. A very good degree for sure, but based on theory.

Engineering is the real world practical application of physics. I have an engineering degree, and worked in aerospace for a few years (part of that was for an OEM engine manufacturer, and the rest for a contractor).

I’m in my early 40s now, and with what I have experienced with my previous background I have zero concerns about pilot less aircraft in my career lifetime.

When pilot-less happens it would start in freight. No fiery crash with seats full of passengers, just freight lost and that is replaceable. I think the greater threat to freight pilots is the world where you go online to order a product but instead of the company shipping that product you download a single use license to print the product on your 3D printer. That tech exists now and doesn't require coordination with the airspace system and complete security of data to prevent digital hijacking of a plane. Could also severely reduce trucking fleets.

Is this a serious post?

About half. I am trying to point out the futility of worrying about a problem that is (1) out of any of our control, and (2) probably so far into the future that we'll be buried when it happens. The serious half is that the relentless march of technology changes the world in ways most of us can't imagine until we are displaced.

Auto parts are being 3D printed today. There is discussion of 3D printed food. Many of the things we buy and ship today could be printed by downloading a single use file of instructions for the printer. The price of the printers is coming down rapidly like all new tech does and soon they can be affordable enough to be in many homes and businesses.

3D Printers for Automotive Parts | EnvisionTEC

When trains run across the country unmanned or ships across the sea, I’ll be worried. Not gonna happen in our careers, and just make sure your kids don’t follow down this same path clown car show of a career.

Its a gig, not a real career

If the cost of insurance exceeds cost of pilots in the flight deck, no one will buy these.
And it is likely that it will.

Pilotless will most likely happen at some point but not a worry anytime soon. Fear, insurance, ground to air connectivity, AI, whatever will delay the inevitable for many years. Y’all need to focus on the immediate TCAS threat vs the distant.

At least 25% of the pilot force can be reduced in long haul ops not quite overnight but definitely on the horizon . Anything currently requiring more than 2 warm bodies will be reduced to 2. 3=2, 4=2... Wow, still a human up front, not alone and a RoBoBox, less operational insurance, less meals, per diem, hotels, transportation, less 401K match, DC, less health insurance, dental insurance, less pay/compensation, sick leave and of course whining. Yeah, that’s adds up fast so that’s coming for long haul within 20 or less, maybe 10. You could easily do this as well for Pax Carriers as you still have your 2 seat fillers so the whining stops there as well. Reduction of force, easily done, pilot shortage (COVID reduced that) alleviated quite a bit to eventual non-existence or shall we say extinction.

Aviation wise - Stay domestic, stay with 2, stay employed perhaps.

*Autonomous ships (U.S. Navy since 2016) technology well in play and you all have ridden in robot rail somewhere. Look down the road it won’t be too long before that becomes old news regarding long haul heavy rail if/when they can work the issues of railroad crossings/human interaction safety. Still killing folks trying to outrace rail so maybe we’re screwed. Rail across the ocean, now that would be new news.

I was paid quite well for the four years I was an “unmanned” aircraft “pilot”. The manpower footprint to operate a datalink flight is quite massive. If it comes to it...I’d be happy to sit in a ground control station again if I could make well into six figures and be home every night. Why you guys so scared? It’s not like Atlantic crossings are exciting.....

It’s awareness not scaredness (I’m a lyrical genius, just to make it work)

Six fig is one thing, multi-Six fig is another and a driving force for many which seems fairly obvious. Cush box job on the ground and home every night if that’s the goal fantastic and definitely a good deal (I’m in maybe, when 60-65, can’t walk and must be wheel chair accessible). Plenty of differences in actually piloting and Play Station monitoring; agree crossings suck but most have lost their puppy love for flight anyway - but definitely still relish the skill set required and ability to hone/further refine their efforts during challenging events with actual skin in the game. Just a sense of being plugged in per say.

Personally - predominantly pre-covid, somewhat OK here and there - travel/chilling, visiting friends/relatives, awesome food and hiking around on some else’s dime while pain is minimal compared to my eventual “golden years” = priceless. Having had plenty of pentagon cubicle type work, ground station monitoring can’t be challenging until the “Big Red Light” comes on so that’s a huge plus with nights at the hacienda. When I flip to geriatric, sign me up for 2 on 5 off in a decade or so. Timing is everything!!! Looking forward to it if I become bored near retirement and need some good hobby money, thanks for the fallback I might just run with it down the line.

That's an interesting point but it's a very long way off. Probably someday, to some degree.

My brother-in-law is an engineer for a very large printer company and they are aggressively expanding into 3D printers (aka AM). But almost their entire market focus is for rapid prototyping and very small niche production runs. For large mass-market production 3D printers aren't economical by a long shot, and I'm sure that cost delta is more than enough to cover shipping.

Also good 3D printers are expensive.

A typical 3D printer works in one material. To make anything even slightly complicated (moving parts, electronics) you'd need multiple printers, or modules within one printer. Now it's getting large and really expensive.

Then if you build multiple parts, is the printer going to assemble them for you? How about painting/coating?

Also many products probably can't be made via home AM at all, without stocks of MANY raw materials. Shampoo, food, electronic components, especially semi-conductor chips. Some metal applications require forging/heat treating to get the desired properties (ex bearings and races).

Home AM might cut into the delivery business for drink coasters, cast-iron pans, door hinges, and metal shelf brackets, but anything else is a very long way off.

All valid points. Keep in mind twenty years ago I had a cell phone that was an inch thick and had the computing power of a casio calculator. Now my phone is no more that 1/4 in. thick and has more computer power than the best mainframes from the sixties. Technology accelerates very quickly.

Auto parts are being made today with 3D. Think how many parts are purely plastic in our world. Plastic interior parts that are now shipping from Asia to the US to be installed could simply be licensed with a CAD file and be produced locally with no need for labor. There is a factory not too far from me that makes plastic interior parts for Ford. They have lots of employees and go through many molds each year due to the wear caused in the injection molding process. What if they could do the same thing with ten printers and a couple of people to manage the computers? It is coming. Business will always drive towards higher productivity with lower labor costs. If fuels lots of innovation. Labor is the highest cost and the biggest source of headaches for business. Get them out and profits soar.

New McDonald’s In Phoenix Run Entirely By Robots - News Examiner

Depends on volume. You can automate something like injection molding without using AM. Traditional processes are typically cheaper for larger production runs... 3D printers have lots of parts and wear out. AM might be useful to make the injection mold itself.

The advantage of a 3D printer is flexibility... it can do many different things with just a data file. For mass production there are AM applications, but in that case the AM machine might be custom-built for that specific niche. One example is extremely light cabin parts for aircraft... with AM they can build very complex, bizarre looking shapes which actually have a strength to weight advantage over simpler cast/forged/machined parts. The bizarre shapes focus the strength along the axis' where it's needed, while not carry extra weight that's an artifact of the machining process. Machining such complex shapes would take too long, if it's even possible for a specific shape.

https://www.tctmagazine.com/additive...ircraft-cabin/


Surpised it took them that long.

But soon enough we'll be confronted with ethical and political hurdles for automation. In the past advances in automation produced a net gain in economics and QOL for society... we're approaching a point where it might just leave a bunch of folks out in the cold.

FWIW I read an article on this, same cover photo and all, about two years ago. Maybe more. The article stated that they were “in the final stages of testing before flight” and that the historic flight was imminent. If the “final stages before flight” to the actual flight has take over two years, I’m not too worried about it. This type of thing is coming, but I’m not losing sleep over it. Forward thinking my finances a bit more? Sure. But this may or may not happen in my career. There’s far more to this than the parlor trick and physical act of single pilot or pilotless ops. Slowtations have been single pilot certified since, what? The ‘80s?

People also talk about how we used to have five pilots in the cockpit. Now we’re down to two... We’ve never had five pilots. Five cockpit crew members, yes. But they weren’t pilots. Even the origins of the flight engineer are rooted in the history of aircraft mechanics. The fact that eventually the majority were certified pilots was by way of pilot unions. Not by operational need.

When single pilot ops do eventually happen, it will be a long phase in. How many decades did it take before all flight engineers no longer had a home? I would put money that anyone who is at their career destination right now, even as an FO, is safe. They might eventually find themselves a little lonely in the cockpit, but they will still have a job.

Most likely true. Unfortunately odds are is that some sort of significant “pandemic” rolls thru well before other deplaning of operators happens. Pandora’s box only slightly opened last year. Remain vigilant as best we can.

Just sayin.

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The world's first family to live in a 3D-printed home - BBC News