Good Article on Pilot Shortage
 

Article from AOPA magazine about the pilot shortage. Writer makes some good points. I'm betting there will be scholarships offered by the airlines, or some kind of deal where for every year you work they knock off $$$ from what you owe for flight training/college. Europe has ab-inito training sponsored by the airlines, but they use some kind of multi-crew limited rating so you don't need as many hours of flight time.

Connecting the dots
Corporate aviation has its own pilot population shortages
April 1, 2018

By Ron Rapp

A friend was searching far and wide for a first officer to fly an exquisite Falcon 2000EX EASy, but couldn’t fill the position despite the six-figure starting salary accompanying it. The company had advertised, offered hefty referral fees, upped the salary and benefits package—and still came up empty-handed.
Connecting the dots
The financial crisis of 2008 contributed to a decline in student starts after a level-off in the 1990s and early 2000s.

Illustration by Webb Creative
Illustration by Webb Creative
I’d sent him pilots for other jobs in the past, but by this time my own cupboard was bare. Everyone I knew who was even remotely qualified for this kind of gig was already fully employed.

How we got here

This conundrum started many years ago. Sometimes it feels like it was in a galaxy far, far away, too. It cost me $4,000 to earn a private pilot certificate in 1998. Can you imagine? That same certificate at the same FBO will set you back four times as much today. Higher fuel prices, insurance rates, maintenance and parts prices, and a shrinking industry ratchet up the costs for those who remain. Some are forced out of the game altogether, while others never get a chance to start.

We’re all familiar with the downsizing, mergers, furloughs, and bankruptcies that rippled throughout the aviation world after 2001. Flying careers had already lost much of their luster and accessibility even before the walls closed in post-September 11.

The next hit was the economic crisis of 2008, an event that played a central and somewhat underappreciated role in the current labor shortage. Obtaining the necessary certificates and ratings to work as a professional pilot can be a six-figure financial commitment. Few young people have that kind of bankroll, so borrowing money is one of the only ways to make it possible in a reasonable timeframe. After 2008, financing options for unsecured loans dried up almost overnight, taking student starts—and more than a few flight schools—with them.

Ironically, this mid-2009 timeframe was almost the exact moment the mandatory retirement age for airline pilots was raised to 65. This effectively masked the avalanche of Part 121 retirements for another half decade. And while the existing pilot workforce was growing older, there were precious few people training to replace them. The chasm was growing right before our eyes, but most were not sage enough to recognize what was happening—rumors of pilot shortages have been a part of almost every decade since the Wrights invented the airplane.

Business aviation versus the airlines

While the major airlines seem to be holding their own when it comes to recruitment, they’re doing so largely at the expense of business aviation and regional airlines. Christopher Broyhill wrote in December’s Business Aviation Advisor that the majors used to rely on the military for a steady supply of aviators, but now “target business aviation pilots, because they have time in sophisticated aircraft and are a known commodity when it comes to training and upgrade.”

NBAA recently conducted a workforce retention study and found that pilots leave the corporate and charter world because of a perception that compensation, quality of life, and stability are better at the airlines. One of the most sobering metrics from that study indicates that well more than half of business aviation pilots are at least considering a move to the Part 121 world.
Connecting the dots
Exposing kids to the wonder of flying at an early age can inspire future pilots. To that end, AOPA is testing an aviation-centric science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) curriculum developed through the High School Aviation Initiative, part of AOPA’s You Can Fly program.

This labor shortage may prove far more challenging to solve than even the industry itself has realized, because the skill set required of business aviation pilots extends far beyond that required of an airline pilot.

Airlines ply a limited route network, whereas business aviation can take you anywhere on the planet, and requires corporate and charter pilots to operate with greater autonomy and less support. My company’s director of operations once called to alert me about a trip to Pyongyang. (That flight was canceled, but during the planning stages I was surprised to find that Jeppesen does include charts and data for North Korea. That would’ve really given me a leg up when comparing destinations with other Gulfstream pilots.)

Business aviators must function at various times as flight attendants, managers, dispatchers, instructors, mentors, recruiters, businessmen, accountants, and more. Some employers run steady and predictable schedules, but for most, the only constant is change. And let’s face it, not everyone thrives in that environment. Many fine aviators lack the requisite skills, or simply have no interest in these sorts of challenges. Some of the talents are innate and cannot be taught—you either possess them or you don’t.

The charter industry has a unique challenge in the form of requirements from safety auditing firms such as ARG/US and Wyvern, which are ubiquitous components of the competitive Part 135 landscape. These auditors set standards that far exceed FAA minimums. This can have positive safety repercussions, but it may also reduce the pool of available candidates.

Solving the problem

Will Rogers once said, “If you find yourself in a hole, stop digging.” Doctors have the same philosophy: First, do no harm. In aviation terms, that means retaining existing pilots by providing compensation and quality of life that meet or exceed what others are offering. While that sounds pricey—and it is—it’s almost certainly less expensive than replacing high-quality flight crew.

Second, since pilots require years of training and seasoning in order to qualify for corporate aviation or airline jobs, the critical role general aviation plays in the health of our industry has to be acknowledged. Light GA is the foundation of the proverbial food pyramid, providing the experience and opportunities necessary for building a well-rounded aviator, and it must be respected and nurtured if the rest of the aviation world is to thrive.

Achieving that goal will demand a reduction in the cost of light GA flying. This is one area where a modicum of progress can be seen: the Part 23 rewrite, a shift away from heavy-handed FAA enforcement policy, the availability of non-TSO avionics for the light GA fleet, and so on. But more must be done. Liability and tort reform would be an excellent place to start. Access to reasonable financing options are another “must have” element of a healthy aviation ecosystem.

It also will require a long-term publicity and recruitment effort on the part of the entire industry. Organizations such as The Ninety-Nines and Women in Aviation International have made strides over the years, but today 93 percent of the pilot population is still male.

We’ve got to expose kids (and parents) to the wonder of general aviation at an early age, getting them out to the airport, bringing aviation-related STEM activity into their classrooms, and making airfields a hospitable place for visitors again.

I know from firsthand experience what an outsized impact these accessibility efforts can have. In 1977, a kind TWA flight engineer spent a few minutes with me after a flight to St. Louis; I’m sure he forgot about the experience shortly thereafter. I didn’t. Four decades later it remains an indelible and cherished memory. It’s also part of why I’m an international captain on a large-cabin Gulfstream today.

Fixing the industry’s employment shortfall is possible, but it won’t be easy—or cheap. The market has turned, and the future belongs to those who embrace the change. AOPA

Ron Rapp is a California-based charter pilot, aerobatic CFI, and aircraft owner.

By "exposing more kids" does he really mean "baiting more suckers"? I would rather see a kid in a wheel chair than in a pilots costume.

There is no pilot shortage. The majors are doing just fine, plenty to choose from. The regional airlines ?, ok , hurting a little bit. The demand is there but for cheap labor. Entry level jobs ?, still hard to find except instructing maybe. Enrollment at aviation universities is sky high despite high costs, ensuring an endless pipeline of dreamers. The day I see a recruiter at my local FBO, then I'll start believing it.

This. I spoke with a couple CFI's from 2 different college aviation programs in Ohio and both said enrollment is through the roof right now. If it's that way in Ohio, I imagine the enrollment in a better weather climate is even higher. I think the regional hiring will be fine over the next few years. May still have an issue filling CA seats, but there will be plenty of FO's. It still comes down to compensation and QOL at the regional level (as it always has).

If you are serious, then you are doing yourself and the profession a great disservice by remaining in it. Seriously. :(

Im just trying to get by. The last 30 years of aviation have been horrible, I really threw my life away by pursuing it. A kid would certainly be no worse off in jail.

Through the roof is relative. Yes, I am also surprised at how busy CFI's have been. But they are not training people who want to make it a career. There are several articles out there discussing how a lot of people go into pilot career training but drop when the reality sets in of low return on investment.
If you really want to see how "through the roof it is" go to this link

https://www.faa.gov/data_research/av...en_statistics/

Look at the 2017 report. Between 2016 and 2017, only about 2000 people got a Commercial pilots license's and about the same for CFI's. Go back and look at the 2011 to 2012 report and 4000 active pilots dropped that year.

Even if you assume all 2000 of those commercial licenses issued are for people who are going to use it for a career and not just some yahoo who has the money to burn just to say they hold a commercial certificate, those are some sad numbers. And how many of those issued are to foreign students?
In my 20 years of being in Aviation, I can say you can roughly quarter those numbers to get a real idea of how many people are actually going to make it to some kind of pilot career. Those getting there CFI tickets, a majority are just using teaching as a stepping stone but still plenty are going to just teach and not move beyond that.

Not sure what numbers you are looking at, but it is actually a great investment.

Long term... if you make it to a legacy, SWA, UPS, FDX, or the rare sweet corporate gig. Other than that it gets questionable. Although the LCC/ULCCs are looking up right now just due to getting carried along with industry trends.

Unless the data filtered them out, a LOT of those went to foreign students.

Take a closer look at Table 16. FAA issued 10,506 Initial Commercial certificates in 2017. 2,080 is the net increase in active commercial certificates, not new issuance. The difference is probably due to non-active pilots and people getting ATPs, which means they are no longer part of the commercial pilot number.

I was wondering where he came up with that number. More people were getting trained last year than any other year on that list.


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One thing that jumped out at me was jump in student certificates. Whether or not they show up in private/commercial numbers in 2018 remains to be seen. And to Rickairs point how many are foreign students?

I looked through the spreadsheets linked and couldn't find any mention of international students. You would think they would track that. Maybe I missed it.

There is a way to approximately quantify the foreign students from the FAA database but it requires a little bit of, let's say, last name profiling. I looked at doing it but it's beyond my skills. I tried to do it in powershell because I somewhat know it and it can take input from a spreadsheet. Most of the foreign students used only a couple variations of home addresses, per every big 141 school. I scrolled through everything and know this is a repeating trend. You have to find these addresses manually by matching the Asian names with the repeating addresses. Then store the repeating addresses and write a query to filter them out and count the instances. That's where I got hung up but I know that there are people out there, probably some pilots, that know how to do this.

just a quick google search brought this up...

https://mashable.com/2016/04/20/regi.../#uC7eBXLPAGq3

Believe me when I say, its not a great investment. My wife is an anesthesiologist. She invested $250k in education, four years of school and four years as a resident (of which she got paid about $50k a year) and now she makes $550k a year. That's a good ROI.

She pretty much invested the same money and time into her education as a pilot would and a pilot will never see that kind of money. Not to mention, she will never get jerked around, be under a threat of losing her livelihood due to loss of a medical certificate and she is home pretty much every night.

I think the real tell tale from this is total ATP for 2017 (or active) is 1,931. I you look at prior years, that number hangs around 3000.
Hypothetically, if all 1,931 ATP's came from 121 operators hiring commercial pilots and put them through ATP/CTP training, its show's how difficult it is for them to get pilots.
I don't know how true it is but I heard that most regional's are only getting about five pilots hired each month. Seemed unreal to me but when you look at that fact that only 1,931 ATP's issued, five pilots a month seems possible.
How many regional's are there, around 20? If each hired five a month, that's 1200 pilots. The rest could easily be taken up by 135 operators.

If a pilot spent $250k to become a pilot, then they are an idiot. :rolleyes:

Your wife also pays what, $200k a year in liability insurance?
A pilot might spend $100k, one year in "school" and will hit $200k pretty easily in 8 years. Heck, you can expect to hit $100k/year on your second or third year. This assuming no 4 year degree.

Home every night, but work 20-22 days a month. A pilot is home much more.

With a 4 year degree, numbers change depending where you get that degree from.

Where will a pilot easily hit 200k with no four year degree?

In 8 years?

Omni, Kalitta, possibly Spirit comes to mind first. No degree required for any of them, and 5 year captain seniority should be in the 180-210 range. I assumed 3 years in regionals to be hireable by those companies.
Of course if you bid reserve and chill, it takes longer. But for someone who is willing to hustle and fly a lot, that should be a realistic timeframe, give or take a year or two.

Done right, a pilot can also make 300k+ in 20 years from start of career, even with no degree or anything. 8 years at Envoy/PDT/PSA, flow, and 12 year seniority at AA.

Start when you're 24, make 300k+ from 44 until 65, that's 21 years of 300k+ income.

All this obviously assumes no 9/11's or other history changing events at times of low seniority.

Aviation, at this moment in time, is a decent calculated risk with a LIKELY good ROI.

And yes people are making $600-700K in the airlines (extreme cases, top-tier widebody CA's).

Also few people dreamed of being an anesthesiologist at age six. Few people will have the opportunity to attend med school and track in one of the lucrative but relatively easy specialties.

There are many factors. In the grand scheme of things, aviation is a good ROI, right now, if you can accept some risk.

Ok yeah, me saying $250k is an overboard statement. But $180k seems pretty common for private through CFI.
Anyone who has been told that there are airline pilots make $600k a year and believes them is very naive.
Quoted
"The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that the average salary of a Commercial Pilot is $77,200 per year. The lowest-paid 10 percent of Commercial Pilots earn $39,430, while the highest-paid 10 percent earn more than $147,240 annually."

The monthly payment on a 10 year $180k school loan is almost $2000 a month. Try making that payment making $39000 a year.
The market tells us that people are crunching the numbers, looking at ROI and overall quality of life and that's part of why there is shortage.
Beyond that the history
shows us the airlines making a bad name for themselves with extreme low pay. I remember when most regionals paid $12k a year for first year FO's.
Personally I think most of the problem is a general lack of interest in making a career in aviation.

No, most doctors pay about $10k a year in malpractice insurance.
Those high insurance costs disappeared when I believe president Clinton put malpractice insurance reform into effect.

I'm one of those blokes trying to calculate my ROI. I am 45, sitting at 220 hours and about to do my IFR checkride. I want to knock out my Commercial license in the next 30 days. But i look at how slowly my pilot hours are accruing and recognize that i am looking at years of low income work just to get to 1,500 hours. Presently, i work for a size able corporation, doing work I am tired of and earning a $72k annual salary. I may have a management option in a few years, but do not see myself staying at this company.

But to consider going to work as a CFI for a couple of years just to build time is demoralizing. Then to go make $45k-$60k for a few years as a Regional FO is also hard to imagine. I suppose by years 3-4 i may be back up to my present salary. So easily 4-5 years of going backwards financially from my present income level.

I would hope from there the wages increase significantly. I'd like to make it my career path but with my age, and comfortable living situation i have acquired, its a bit risky. I want to make a smart move and don't want to be a glutton for punishment. Yet, it seems that is somehow built into the industry for new pilots. You have to suffer and get kicked in the balls for a few years before things start to payoff.

I also worry about flying reserve and commuting to base. I'm pretty stuck to where i live in Salt lake due to custody of my kids and the old ex wife.

On the upside, i see wages and bonuses are increasing and i hope that trend continues. I also hope the entire pipeline of pilot opportunities will keep moving so that older guys in my shoes can move up in seniority a little quicker.

Thanks to all of you that provide positive and realistic feedback on these forums!!!

Only if coupled with a year degree at a Part 141. One can get their ratings for less than $90k and get college with less than $30k.




I don't think anyone is making $600k/yr and I can tell you those government stats are bogus or outdated.

Anyone who does a 10 year loan for that amount of money is an idiot.



Yes the market is a lot better with starting salaries closing in on $60-$70k.

The problem is the initial cost of training, and the nearly nonexistent pay to get to 1500 hours, not the first year pay at a 121 carrier.

I passed my commercial checkride less than a year ago, my first job paid $34k/year + tips (150-200/week), my second job with a bit of overtime paid $45k/year for the first 6 months, and now I'm at 1200 hours and will be on track to hit $85k, $100k if I want to work every bit of overtime available. Cumulative, my first year pilot income will be around $60k/year. I don't think it's a "nonexistent" pay at all. Next year base pay will be just under $95k with no overtime. Currently I fly 3 days a week, live home, have all weekends off and home every night.

My flight training, all in, including hour building, was just over $45k until I got hired at my first job.
So far, my ROI has been incredible.

You are new to aviation and so far have had no issues. I was a regional fo during the lost generation making 50k a year for seven years when I switched careers. You will get more credit once you have been in the industry awhile and got some 121 time under your belt. I started flying professionally in 2003 as a CFI and went through post 911 and the recession. when you have had hurdles, which you most definitely will, then you will have a better overall picture of the industry. Some of the guys on here have 30 plus years of industry experience. It would serve you well to listen and keep your ears open. Aviation can be a fickle mistress.

Ps i have been hearing about this pilot shortage since 1999 and have yet to see any real shortage for good paying jobs please don’t give advice to people using best case scenarios in an industry that leans towards worse case scenarios.

Dera.....
Can you elaborate on the time building jobs you have worked and are currently working?? Thanks.

Originally Posted by dera https://www.airlinepilotforums.com/i...s/viewpost.gif
I passed my commercial checkride less than a year ago, my first job paid $34k/year + tips (150-200/week), my second job with a bit of overtime paid $45k/year for the first 6 months, and now I'm at 1200 hours and will be on track to hit $85k, $100k if I want to work every bit of overtime available. Cumulative, my first year pilot income will be around $60k/year. I don't think it's a "nonexistent" pay at all. Next year base pay will be just under $95k with no overtime. Currently I fly 3 days a week, live home, have all weekends off and home every night.

My flight training, all in, including hour building, was just over $45k until I got hired at my first job.
So far, my ROI has been incredible.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Firefighterpilo (Post 2590584)

You are new to aviation and so far have had no issues. I was a regional fo during the lost generation making 50k a year for seven years when I switched careers. You will get more credit once you have been in the industry awhile and got some 121 time under your belt. I started flying professionally in 2003 as a CFI and went through post 911 and the recession. when you have had hurdles, which you most definitely will, then you will have a better overall picture of the industry. Some of the guys on here have 30 plus years of industry experience. It would serve you well to listen and keep your ears open. Aviation can be a fickle mistress.

Ps i have been hearing about this pilot shortage since 1999 and have yet to see any real shortage for good paying jobs please don’t give advice to people using best case scenarios in an industry that leans towards worse case scenarios.

---

To Firefighterpilot's point. Aviation is a business and one of its biggest expenses is fuel. Price of oil has been trending upward lately and with it the price of fuel. Issues with Iran and the Middle East in general can do things to the price of fuel that just can't be predicted with any certainty. Even Trump pulling out of the Nuclear Deal caused prices to rise with long term effects yet to be determined. Let's not forget that garden spot Iraq where Iran wields considerable sway through Shiite Militias/Shiite population and outright infiltration of the Iraqi government. Iran is even known to bribe the members of the Iraqi Parliament to maintain favorable "representation". Ultimately higher oil prices benefit these countries bottom line to the detriment of the transportation industry. I firmly believe after spending a fair amount of time there, is that at least some turmoil in the Middle East is good for them in the long run and they know it. For most of these countries oil is all they really have economically. My point after this long winded post is that your interests as a pilot are opposed by some very powerful entities and never take anything for granted.

You can easily commute out of SLC, it's near the big west coast bases, DEN, DFW, IAH, and not that far from ORD/MDW.

$72K is trivial in this conversation. If you have a degree (preferably with a good GPA), are healthy, and personable, there is a clear potential ROI for you due to timing in history... the escalator is running, and running fast (which is not always the case). With all bonuses, retirement factors, you'd make $150-$200K second-year at a mid/upper-tier major.

The caveat of course is risk... health problems, catastrophic economic issues, unknowns. Or maybe the recruiters just don't like the way you part your hair... but I think most majors no longer have enough candidates where they can exclude people for trivial reasons, assuming you've punched all the big tickets they want. Risk is always present, and always a consideration for those pursuing aviation. What's different right now is that there's not much risk of stagnation.

Now for a guy making $200K+ in the white-collar world, it's a much harder decision... aviation would require a significant cut in lifestyle, without any absolute certainty of ever getting it back. If spouse/family is involved, they'd need to be VERY supportive. IMO you'd really have to hate what you're doing now (which could be understandable if you're doing 80 hour weeks on wall street or the like).

Thank you Rickair7777.

Yes, i consider my current wage to be less than desirable. Admittedly, i would be losing money for a few years just to get to 1,500 hours then a few years of FO regional employment. I am healthy, present well, professional and have a 4 year business degree. I recall my GPA from University was about 3.2, so nothing stellar. Clean work history, clean legal record, perfect credit score etc. I am Mr. responsible and reliable. I think i would present well to any airline that was looking to hire me. I would like to think i can suffer financially for a few years and then earn back much more than my current employment trajectory. At least that is what i keep telling myself as i contemplate going backward financially. :)

That's just dumb.

That's even dumber.

United, Omni, Kallita, Atlas.
Did SWA drop the four year degree requirement? Alaskan? Jet Blue? Hawaiian?

Pretty sure the only airlines where it is a requirement are Delta, UPS and Fedex.

SWA has always had a two-year degree requirement. Practically speaking, it was always rare to get hired without a four-year degree (I do know one guy).

UA data was posted by someone a year or two ago. Four year degree preferred but not required. Three of 1800 didn’t have a four year degree. If you think you’re the 1 in 600 guy that doesn’t need a degree I wouldn’t worry about getting the degree.

From The Heart...

If you are calculating ROI and doing Cost/Benefit analysis as to whether or not you want to be a Pilot....You probably will not do well if and when you get here.

This is something you " always wanted to do ". But Hmmm, not enough to have done so. Let that sink in.

Here's when you will "get it " : ...You won't be reading these forums. You will have put 80k, cash-on-the-barrellhead, and will have started your training. You will be sucking so hard on The Fire Hose of Aviation Knowledge that you will be too G. D. BUSY to worry about anything else.(!)

The disease will be evident, the addiction will have started, and YOU WILL BE LOVING IT.

But, as told to me years ago..." You HAVE to WANT this. "

DO YOU?

Forget the Bank Account and whatever else...You will either DO what you have claimed you always wanted to do or, you will be debating yourself as regards cost/family/details/impact etc. FOREVER.

And, maybe that's why it hasn't Happened so far...(?)

Good Luck To ALL.


STK

Interesting
 

I fly rotorcraft and there is definitely a shortage on our side of things. I am considering making a transition to fixedwing to have a chance at a more lucrative and less physically demanding career. Top out pay for us is 90k-110k. There's a few unicorn jobs that will take you to 140k but there is a very poor quality of life associated. As I continue to paroose the forums I appreciate hearing everyone's observations of the 121 industry. Anyone have an opinion on me making the jump across?