Airline Pilot Central Forums - Newbies & Career Hedging

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Sliceback (Post 2642375)

Think in percentages - few furloughs of less than 5%. Few furloughs over 15%. The worst are around 20-25%.

apc data has pilot totals and retirements for the different airlines. You can figure the percentages. AA will be retiring 7% shortly. One is decent protection, two is protection from most furloughs and 3-4 yrs is probably 100% protected.

Twenty yrs ago Captains were talking about how insane some of the FO's spending was “his house cost more than mine! Don’t they realize the music stops at times?” It did.

Wait until you have some protection and live based on 20-25% of the seniority list disappearing. Figure out what that pay will be and live accordingly.

The retirement numbers would probably also mitigate the numbers of any near/mid-term furlough... no point in furloughing, incurring cascading training events, only to have to bring the guy back soon to cover retirements (probably before the dust has settled on the bump and flush).

There’s a ton on aviation-related, non-flying jobs, some inside your airline. Operations management, safety, security, training, dispatching, depending on your skills. I’ve seen loads of pilots who lose their medical and always assumed they’d have one. Then, they’re trying y9 learn new skills, when they should have been doing so their entire careers. Be an LCA, learn the jobs done by the teeming throngs who make an airline run.

GF

Quote:

Originally Posted by hrmham (Post 2635774)

Despite the obvious hiring going on at the present, more senior pilots constantly speak in terms of *when* the next downturn will arrive (not *if*) and how that could flush a lot of the newer pilots' careers/progression, etc. While newbies chase the magic 1500 hours hoping to hook-on to a regional and begin the climb, should they also be *actively* be setting up for a back-up career to hedge against the specter of downturns and furloughs? If so, are they're any obvious, proven go-to non-aviation-related careers?

There is zero question that the aviation employment market will tank. No question whatsoever. Aviation hiring rolls in cycles, and despite the rosy predictions that this demand will hang on for another 20 years, anyone that believes it is either an idiot or too new in the industry to understand the cycles.

Given our political situation, look for it sooner, than later.

Anyone that puts all their eggs in one basket had better hope the basket doesn't leak, and had better be ready to cook. They'll be breaking before long. You can count on that.