Newbies & Career Hedging
 

Despite the obvious hiring going on at the present, more senior pilots constantly speak in terms of *when* the next downturn will arrive (not *if*) and how that could flush a lot of the newer pilots' careers/progression, etc. While newbies chase the magic 1500 hours hoping to hook-on to a regional and begin the climb, should they also be *actively* be setting up for a back-up career to hedge against the specter of downturns and furloughs? If so, are they're any obvious, proven go-to non-aviation-related careers?

Having a back up plan, regardless of profession, is just common sense.

When there is a downturn, I doubt it will be as bad as the last one for pilots. Even with a reduction in flying and possible pay cuts there are still an enormous amount of mandatory retirements to keep some movement going. It may slow things down but I don't think we'd see things get as bad as they were before. If the economy ends up in that bad of a spot I doubt a ten year old engineering or business degree with no relevant work experience is going to land you a job in that market.

I think it's wise to pick a regional you can stand being stuck at for awhile if that happens.

Spending prudently and living within your means during the good time to keep a rainy day fund is a better bet. Could you afford to be downgraded to FO for 2-3 years?

Backups are good, but DarkSide nailed it. Neither a degree nor skills without recent work experience will help much to get you hired in a specific non-aviation field. Source: my last job included screening job applicants, many of whom had degrees or skills related to the field yet no recent work experience.

I've been at this for a year now. The common theme among captains with whom I've flown isn't so much that they have backup jobs as that they have backup income. Real estate, businesses, investments: while they do require knowledge and attention, they don't require recent experience to get started.

A backup is always good, regardless of economic circumstances because you might medical out.

This is somewhat mitigated at majors with good disability plans. If you're climbing the ladder, you're probably young enough to start over. Career changers can go back to what they were doing before if it's not seniority based/age limited. Career pilots who aren't at a top-tier major might really need a backup.

There will of course be a downturn, economies are cyclical by nature. The good news is that airlines are pretty efficient these days, not much fat to trim, and pilot retirements will mitigate or perhaps rule out furloughs at many carriers.

As some have pointed out, a degree alone will not guarantee immediate lucrative employment, especially if the economy is down. But if you don't have specific technical/vocational skills, a degree would be the most versatile backup.

The safest thing would be develop and maintain a skill that you can fall back on. Some things lend themselves to flexible schedules and part-time work, and could be quickly spooled up to full time if needed. (computer programming, nurse, PA, accounting). Many pilots do real estate, that would work if you have a medical issue but probably not if the economy tanks. Also a wide variety of trade/votech skills could serve that purpose, while most pilots would probably prefer white collar work if they couldn't fly, that's your call.

To be more specific, DO NOT get an aviation college degree. It’s much easier to switch to a backup than go get a new degree.

Newbies & Career Hedging
 

I don't know how relevant that is these days. I know a bunch of people that are working in fields that have nothing to do with their degree. I agree though that having a degree of some kind is important.

Nothing wrong with getting an aviation college degree, if you already have a skill that can be leveraged against it. (IT certs).

Speaking which, a great backup opinion is keeping your fingers in the IT industry if possible. It's one industry that isn't really going away anytime soon, to be honest. It's one that doesn't put weight one to have a degree, but instead having certs and skills.

Think in percentages - few furloughs of less than 5%. Few furloughs over 15%. The worst are around 20-25%.

apc data has pilot totals and retirements for the different airlines. You can figure the percentages. AA will be retiring 7% shortly. One is decent protection, two is protection from most furloughs and 3-4 yrs is probably 100% protected.

Twenty yrs ago Captains were talking about how insane some of the FO's spending was “his house cost more than mine! Don’t they realize the music stops at times?” It did.

Wait until you have some protection and live based on 20-25% of the seniority list disappearing. Figure out what that pay will be and live accordingly.