Hello Folks,

After several discovery flights, I've decided to enroll full-time into ATP starting from zero time with the intent of hitting the regionals ASAP. I'm currently 30 years old and wanting to change careers. The question now is when should I begin training as I understand that timing and seniority is everything in the airline industry. Since I've been preapproved financing for the tuition cost of $80,000, should I go ahead and start my training now or should I wait until Oct to save about $45k more with my current job to reduce the loan amount?

Thanks!

 

I think you should consider how much $$ it will take to get you to 1500 hours TT, and the expected income you will receive as a regional fo before deciding if you can service the debt you will accrue. Are you planning to go the CFI route or pay on your own all the way to 1500?

 

I would start as soon as possible once you've made up your mind. If you've already decided on ATP, great, go forward, secure financing and knock it out. But to be honest there is NO advantage of ATP over your local 61 flight school. You can do the exact same thing for a lot less if you find a school and instructors that understand your goals. If you can find a local flight school to do all your ratings at, you will save yourself a lot of money in the long run. I was in the same boat in 2017; I was 27 and trying to figure out how I was going to do this. Lucky for me, I had been making good money out of college for a handful of years, so I could afford to pay for training out of pocket, with no loans. 0-CFI in 7 months, for less than half it would have cost me at ATP. Fast forward two years and I am now at a regional. Go in knowing the timeline you want to finish in and make sure you and your instructors all are on the same page. Feel free to shoot me a PM with any additional questions.

 

With a 20% overage you’ll be responsible for $96,000, just for the sake of the discussion we’ll make it $100,000.
You will not be able to start paying this back for 2-3 years.
You’ll now have to pay back $112-$115k depending on your interest rates.
It will also take you the 2-3 years to get to the 1500hrs required for the Regionals.
Just as a random example at Republic your average hourly is $50/hr for give or take $50k a year before taxes. If you can pay off $20k/year on average (after upgrade pay raise included ) you’ll be paying for 6-7 years.
Thats a total of 9-10 years of rice and beans and $1000 cars and crash pads and no chance of a mortgage.
You can do this for $20-$25k less if you piecemeal it together.
Continue to work also, change jobs if you need to get more flexibility.
Train 3-4 times a week.
Try and do this as close to debt free as you can.

* Calculations of the cuff, what did I miss?

 

Oh, good question! As mentioned above, if you truly want to "ride the wave" and get into the new career ASAP then that is what you should absolutely do. However, saving money towards training can also be advantageous to you.
Think about it this way: you go with option A: get the loan and go to ATP now. Bang out all of your ratings and begin flight instructing or other time building to get your time up to get on with a regional. In the meantime, while you're making (not a lot of money) as a CFI/banner tower/aerial survey pilot...your loan payment kicks in, probably somewhere in the range of $500/month.
Or...option B. As others mentioned, you save up or you can do your training at a local flight school and bust your behind to get in there and fly as much as possible/as much as money would allow. This MAY take longer than option B but you won't have the loan to pay, or AS much loan to pay at the end.
Option C, you do a blend of both: start now locally and pay what you can and if you reach a crossroads and need to just get the rest done, take out a loan for the remainder of training

The question you have to answer to yourself is: what's more important to you?Getting into the career ASAP? Financial wellness? If you take a loan, can you handle the financial impact post-training? Yes, seniority matters but if we're talking months and not years, I think you'll be in decent shape. Best of luck and feel free to reach out with any questions!

 

Seniority shouldn’t be your prime concern.
Nobody can foresee the market 3 years from now when you will enter it.
I think your financial well being is more important.
5-6 years from now you could be at a Regional airline with a crippling debt that you can’t manage to pay off and 3 years seniority or you could be a 1-2 year FO and debt free.
Keep in mind aviation doesn’t work like the real world where you keep your salary as you change jobs because of the experience you have.
In aviation every job change puts you back at 1st year pay.

 

Generally I would have to agree with this.

But if there was ever a time in history when you might want to consider incurring debt to acquire seniority asap, this is it. Still a gamble though.

 

And generally I’d have to agree with this.

I wasn’t carrying much debt pre 9/11, but at my first airline at that time, my future looked promising. “You’re getting into this career at a good time!” Upgrade was just right around the corner...

Fast forward to after a furlough and starting over again to 2007. Me, and FO’s I flew with in 2007 (pre 65) and into 2008 all thought the SAME THING. Wow, that 100k debt they’re carrying sucks, but they’ll be at a legacy in NO TIME. “You’re getting into this career at a good time!!!” Many were furloughed later on.

Worse for some of the guys I fly with now that were 2 time legacy furloughs. Sure, they’re doing good NOW. But hey, what’s 10-12-15 years of your career and life? NONE of us know, NONE of us can predict what’ll happen.

Granted, the industry as a whole, but especially the legacies, are way better prepared to absorb a black swan event. But if there is one, and the projected hiring numbers start to decline, then all bets are off.

 

Monday, take this one step at a time.
An exciting demo flight is NOT and indication of how well you’ll do or if you’ll even like it.
National statistics paint a bit of a bleak picture as 80%(!) drops out of training.
Why? Multitude of reasons from a school that doesn’t care to an instructor that doesn’t care to a scare or simply the realization that you’re about to spend an ungodly amount of money.

https://www.boldmethod.com/blog/list...t-of-training/

Complete your Private training and then do a reassessment of your wants and needs.
Then do your Instrument rating followed by another self assessment.
I did my Private in ‘92 and with 5 years of no flying I’m 23 years ahead of you and it’s honestly taken 20 years to get to where I wanted to be.
I’m not the only one that has seen black snow, there are tens of thousands of us.
You have to absolutely plan for a less then stellar 5-15(?) first years of your career.

 

I'd avoid taking on that much debt. Initially keep your day job and take lessons as fast as you can. Go ahead and get a Class 1 medical just to make sure you can hold one. Once you have your PPL maybe then decide to start training full time. I say avoid taking on the debt because things can happen that will stop your flying career. Difficulty in training, teenager texting while driving and T-Bones your car, an illness that stops a flying career, etc. $80K is a lot of debt to take on when the outcome is uncertain.