Originally Posted by galaxy flyer (Post 3028247)

Until there’s hiring at regionals, time building jobs including CFI will be hard to come by.

GF

Originally Posted by Captainfit (Post 3028171)

Hi, I am 26 years old and have done my private pilots license at a part 61 school. My instrument, and commercial are part 141 so I could get my R-ATP. I will be doing my multi commercial at a part 61 school, I split things up to be cost effective and still be able to take advantage of the R-ATP. I am about 4-5 months away from earning my CFI, and I am about 2 years away from graduating with a Bachelors in aviation. I figured in my calculations that I would have about 1000 hours in 2 years when I graduate if things went okay. To take note I am passionate aviator that is following my dreams, and I've had a steady job in classic car sales before this, and I know how badly the normal 9-5 is for ME. So I am not going to pack up my bags and run, so save those replies :). I am a first generation pilot, and I don't have information outside of here and research. Now that I have gave a brief bio, I would like to know how I can make myself more competitive in the meantime in general and definitely with this COVID-19 (outside of grades, I volunteer at my church and am a youth leader, and different kind of community service). Also, I know the industry is not looking good, definitely for those that are ready for the airlines now, but I imagine this will pass and people will travel again. But when? Lastly, any speculation that it will be difficult to get a CFI job in about 4 months. Obviously less upward movement will keep a lot of people instructing.

Thanks!

Originally Posted by LoneStar32 (Post 3029946)

No Regional is going to be hiring again for at least this year and maybe next year too. I suspect the days of Regionals hiring at R-ATP or ATP mins are long gone, hiring mins are going to go up because there are going to be a lot of well qualified pilots with prior 121 time on the street looking for jobs. What that means is all those CFIs planning to leave this summer/fall once they got their hours will be staying on for the foreseeable future. Once these flight schools open back up I suspect it will be really hard to find a job but not impossible if you are willing to move. Hopefully you are greasing the skids to instruct where you are training now.

After you CFI for a year or two, you may need to go to a Part 135/91 job to get a lot of multi-engine time. All that other sunshiny **** you do will help to separate you too, but will be more beneficial when/if you decide to move on to a Major airline a decade or two down the road if they still exist. They eat that **** up whereas Regionals just care if you meet their min requirements.

Originally Posted by Bahamasflyer (Post 3030072)

C'monnnnnn man. Is such doom really helpful, not to mention far from accurate?

Originally Posted by Captainfit (Post 3028171)

Hi, I am 26 years old and have done my private pilots license at a part 61 school. My instrument, and commercial are part 141 so I could get my R-ATP. I will be doing my multi commercial at a part 61 school, I split things up to be cost effective and still be able to take advantage of the R-ATP. I am about 4-5 months away from earning my CFI, and I am about 2 years away from graduating with a Bachelors in aviation. I figured in my calculations that I would have about 1000 hours in 2 years when I graduate if things went okay. To take note I am passionate aviator that is following my dreams, and I've had a steady job in classic car sales before this, and I know how badly the normal 9-5 is for ME. So I am not going to pack up my bags and run, so save those replies :). I am a first generation pilot, and I don't have information outside of here and research. Now that I have gave a brief bio, I would like to know how I can make myself more competitive in the meantime in general and definitely with this COVID-19 (outside of grades, I volunteer at my church and am a youth leader, and different kind of community service). Also, I know the industry is not looking good, definitely for those that are ready for the airlines now, but I imagine this will pass and people will travel again. But when? Lastly, any speculation that it will be difficult to get a CFI job in about 4 months. Obviously less upward movement will keep a lot of people instructing.

Thanks!

Originally Posted by lbell (Post 3029276)

Having gone thru the late 90's downturn, 9-11, 2008 Economy Dump, Colgan Air Crash (implementation of 1500 hr rule), Merger-Mainia, SARS, and now COVID-19...I have learned the aviation industry ups & downs are like a pendulum on a Grandfather Clock that repeats itself every 10 years.

With that being said, the Majors missed out on the busy Summer 2020 flying. SEPT/OCT are normally slow months (great for non-rev). Travelers will begin to start flying during Nov/Dec holidays, but at a snails pace due to fear & cheap gas prices.

The Public Traveler has to get back to work, and become financially secure, before they book vacation & travel plans again. Businesses will reevaluate their travel budget, since they will have already worked thru the kinks of using Zoom for tele-conferencing

Jan/Feb 2021 will be slow, as it always is. (Again good time to non-rev).

Late March 2021 will start to pick up with Spring Break travelers. April will have increased bookings as the public is "tired of staying in" & "want to get away". This uptick in traffic will cause the Majors to increase flights for Summer 2021. The public will return and take their postponed 2020 vacations.

Now the Majors will have to hire for these increase flights, and start hiring in March/April 2021.

By the time this trickles down to the Regionals needing pilots would equate to around Sept/Oct 2021. There are enough furloughed pilots from TSA & Compass to supply the Majors (and Regionals) with a steady quality applicant pool.

Sept/Oct 2021 your Regionals will go into a hiring frenzy, to get staffed for the upcoming 2021 Holiday Travel Season. The pipeline will "dry up quickly" as Flight Schools will see a significant decrease in students between now and the next hiring boom of Sept/Oct 2021. This will cause the Regionals to increase pay & Sign On Bonuses to attract applicants to their company.

Then the pilot shortage will really hit with the 2022 retirements, increased flights, and near zero students that continued their flight training to meet ATP Minimums. If you are a new student, you should be able to get your 1500 hours by Sept/Oct 2021 (as long as you can get hired as a CFI, which may be difficult with the reduction of students actively seeking flight training) and be in the perfect spot to get hired.

Originally Posted by Bushmaster78FSA (Post 3031482)

Don't listen to all that doom and gloom. It's not going to take you 20 years to majors which WILL exist in one way or another. Here's a quote from Ibell from the other thread, appears to be a person who has experienced the cyclical nature of this business.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Originally Posted by SCAviator (Post 3031309)

I finished college with all my ratings in 2008. I have been in two different military branches and had multiple different civilian jobs since. I finally managed to get to a financial situation and enough hours allowing me to start a career in the airlines about 2 years ago. Then this happened. Im still employed and still happy about the career change decision. Airline flying has truly been the best job I have ever had/will have. My point is life throws obstacles no matter what. Just keep pushing forward and don't stop trying to better yourself for when the timing comes back around. It could be a year or it could be ten. No one knows the future so keep at it.

Originally Posted by LoneStar32 (Post 3029946)

No Regional is going to be hiring again for at least this year and maybe next year too. I suspect the days of Regionals hiring at R-ATP or ATP mins are long gone, hiring mins are going to go up because there are going to be a lot of well qualified pilots with prior 121 time on the street looking for jobs. What that means is all those CFIs planning to leave this summer/fall once they got their hours will be staying on for the foreseeable future. Once these flight schools open back up I suspect it will be really hard to find a job but not impossible if you are willing to move. Hopefully you are greasing the skids to instruct where you are training now.

After you CFI for a year or two, you may need to go to a Part 135/91 job to get a lot of multi-engine time. All that other sunshiny **** you do will help to separate you too, but will be more beneficial when/if you decide to move on to a Major airline a decade or two down the road if they still exist. They eat that **** up whereas Regionals just care if you meet their min requirements.

Originally Posted by Kung Flu Master (Post 3031554)

You can do this career but make damn certain you have something else on the back burner or marry rich. Personally I’d bail if I were in your shoes knowing what I know now. It’s nice to dream that things will stabilize but then when you actually get that regional job you’ll realize the majors will sidestep a well qualified captain for several years for someone right out of college with just a couple thousand hours but at least they volunteered or did something else that met HR’s criteria.

Originally Posted by Captainfit (Post 3032945)

That would be more than frustrating! I am a bit too far in to back out now, flying is my passion so it is worth the effort and patience. To speak to having a back up plan, I am actually looking at minors that I could get into. I was thinking about real estate, and a couple other things I could get into.

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3033045)

If you're looking for a long-term backup in case you lose your medical, almost any field will do, except those where youth and perky boobs are entry qualifications (ex marketing).

For a short-term backup, in case of economic downturn you'd want something relatively recession-proof, so probably not real estate for example, going to be hard to break in with little to no experience when there seasoned professionals in the bread lines. Downturns usually last a couple-three years so you can always drive truck, uber, etc if you can downshift the lifestyle for a while.

Originally Posted by Captainfit (Post 3033116)

That is good info, thanks. I am having troubles finding a minor I am excited about outside of my little circle of interest/beliefs. I thought about business or accounting, something like that.

Originally Posted by Bahamasflyer (Post 3030072)

C'monnnnnn man. Is such doom really helpful, not to mention far from accurate?

Originally Posted by rickair7777 (Post 3033228)

Business degree is just an entree into the business world, where you sink or swim on your own merits and aggressiveness.

Accounting can be a similar entree, or it can be a heads-down technical skill, whichever you prefer. Some CEO's and senior managers are accountants, but there are many accountants who just work their numbers until 5:00 pm and go home.

Originally Posted by USMCFLYR (Post 3037080)

For all of those listing articles and such there is another one on the forum here from Bloomsburg with analysts predicting upto 105,000 pilots out of work (the article was mainly about the BIG THREE but didn’t really elaborate where these pilots might come from specifically). If even 1/2 true - thus prediction does not spell good news for the near future (you decide what near means to you).

Originally Posted by BFMthisA10 (Post 3037180)

That was probably this article, and it cites 105k jobs, not pilots.

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...jobs-come-fall

Originally Posted by USMCFLYR (Post 3037185)

Ah!
That helps PILOTS a little then.

Originally Posted by USMCFLYR (Post 3037185)

Ah!
That helps PILOTS a little then.

Originally Posted by Mordi (Post 3037285)

I wouldn't stay up at night worrying about current events. A lot can happen in two years good or bad. In the meantime be patient, be proactive and network network network! Don't be shy about going outside the CFI route either. Think skydive, pipeline, ferry service, towing banners or gliders, ISR, dropping fruitflies out of a King Air, anything. Those jobs are often more about who you know than your resume so use the slowdown to network!

I might rethink majoring in aviation. If regionals wait a year to start hiring, and then have higher mins for even 6-months to a year after that, then an R-ATP becomes much less important, especially if you do start instructing later this summer. Diversification only gives you more options not just for an economic downturn but also if you have medical issues in 20 years.

Originally Posted by kevbo (Post 3039694)

Im glad all this happened, I was afraid the next generation would be spoiled rotten. Nothing like being a part time CFI for less than minimum wage. Live it, love it !!!!

Originally Posted by Valiant (Post 3048173)

https://www.google.com/search?q=kit+...aXeG7BWv9t0N6M
What do you guys think about this chart?
3 scenarios
best mid worst??

Link to chart:

https://www.google.com/search?q=kit+...aXeG7BWv9t0N6M

Originally Posted by galaxy flyer (Post 3048187)

Need a new link, please

Originally Posted by Valiant (Post 3048223)

https://i.imgur.com/4ETyhZK.jpg.

Originally Posted by Bushmaster78FSA (Post 3048272)

See how he says with a potential treatment and/or vaccine those best/worst case scenario recoveries would look quiet different.

Originally Posted by Valiant (Post 3048343)

Elaborate further??

What's your gut feeling??

Originally Posted by galaxy flyer (Post 3048402)

The decrease in RPMs is certainly worse than they’re predicting for Q2 and Q3 20. The TSA screenings are down 94% YOY, which may not be perfect analogue for RPM, but likely close. That means a much larger hole to climb out of.

GF

Originally Posted by Valiant (Post 3048476)

What are RPMs??

Originally Posted by Captainfit (Post 3077416)

I wanted to check back in on how things are going now, I know things change swiftly. I have been up in the air quite a bit, and I have noticed more airline traffic over the approach/center frequency. Can anyone attest, or maybe someone has better predictions as of now.

Originally Posted by kaputt (Post 3077478)

Things are moving in the right direction, but slowly.