Notices
Career Questions Career advice, interview prep and gouges, job fairs, etc.

Pilot Shortage?

Old 10-05-2020, 08:23 AM
  #31  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Apr 2005
Posts: 1,391
Default

Great point.
Everything has been raised to the level of hysteria.
Rama is offline  
Old 10-07-2020, 06:05 PM
  #32  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2019
Posts: 307
Default

Out of curiosity I researched how many people die in the USA annually... the last stats were published for 2017 by the CDC saying 2.8 million Americans died that year.

The media loves saying “200,000 people died” as if that’s a big deal. In reality most of those people were going to die anyways.

It will be interesting to see if we even have an overall increase in death rate for 2020 once this is all said and done
DontLookDown is offline  
Old 10-07-2020, 08:08 PM
  #33  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,099
Default

Originally Posted by DontLookDown View Post
Out of curiosity I researched how many people die in the USA annually... the last stats were published for 2017 by the CDC saying 2.8 million Americans died that year.

The media loves saying “200,000 people died” as if that’s a big deal. In reality most of those people were going to die anyways.

It will be interesting to see if we even have an overall increase in death rate for 2020 once this is all said and done
750,000 people die each month in the US. Covid produced a small but perceptible uptick in those numbers.

But the folks having hysterics over this are people who have limited intellectual capacity with regards to big numbers, or are just willfully ignorant.

If hospitals have capacity, then everyone should be allowed to make their own choices. I grudgingly gave them benefit of the doubt for a couple weeks to get the medical capacity under control.
rickair7777 is offline  
Old 10-08-2020, 03:38 AM
  #34  
Gets Weekends Off
 
USMCFLYR's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Mar 2008
Position: FAA 'Flight Check'
Posts: 13,835
Default

Well which is it?
CDC numbers of 2.8 million annually (233,333,000/month)

OR

750,000/month (9,000,000 annually)?

someone’s numbers are off.
USMCFLYR is offline  
Old 10-08-2020, 06:21 AM
  #35  
Gets Weekends Off
 
galaxy flyer's Avatar
 
Joined APC: May 2010
Position: Baja Vermont
Posts: 5,168
Default

I think it’s 2.8 million per year. According to the CDC “excess deaths” are back close to the normal trend line in September. Over at the Europe numbers thread.

https://ibb.co/k2k9Jy1
galaxy flyer is offline  
Old 10-08-2020, 07:10 AM
  #36  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,099
Default

Originally Posted by USMCFLYR View Post
Well which is it?
CDC numbers of 2.8 million annually (233,333,000/month)

OR

750,000/month (9,000,000 annually)?

someone’s numbers are off.
You are correct. I got the the 750k from another website (which I cant find with google now), so we'll go with the CDC on that.

That makes the covid more significant, but still in the grand scheme not too far out of the influenza statistical ballpark.
rickair7777 is offline  
Old 10-09-2020, 06:16 AM
  #37  
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined APC: Feb 2019
Posts: 307
Default

Of the 200,000 deaths the CDC said 96% had underlying conditions.

So if 96% were going to die anyways from something other than COVID, that leaves 12,000 Americans dead from the virus.

When you have over 2.8 million Americans dying during a typical year I do not believe 12,000 deaths is going to be very noticeable in any overall trend.

The president comes out and told us not to be afraid of the virus or base our lives around it. He’s giving us great advice.

In 2018 48,344 Americans died from suicide.

It isn’t hard to imagine more than 12,000 people dying from suicide due to the implications of losing their jobs, ability to socialize or have access to places of comfort like gyms or churches. The reaction to the virus is likely to be more deadly than the virus itself.

I’m becoming more and more convinced that the news is hyping this up to try to keep our economy bogged down until after the election.

Im still optimistic that things can bounce back pretty quickly to the way the were if the election gives us a favorable result
DontLookDown is offline  
Old 10-09-2020, 06:57 AM
  #38  
Prime Minister/Moderator
 
rickair7777's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,099
Default

Originally Posted by DontLookDown View Post
Of the 200,000 deaths the CDC said 96% had underlying conditions.

So if 96% were going to die anyways from something other than COVID, that leaves 12,000 Americans dead from the virus.
I think it's all been blown out of proportion, but not all of those underlying conditions were going to be fatal, at least not in the short-term

Originally Posted by DontLookDown View Post
The president comes out and told us not to be afraid of the virus or base our lives around it. He’s giving us great advice.
That's one school of thought (to which I subscribe).

Originally Posted by DontLookDown View Post
In 2018 48,344 Americans died from suicide.

It isn’t hard to imagine more than 12,000 people dying from suicide due to the implications of losing their jobs, ability to socialize or have access to places of comfort like gyms or churches. The reaction to the virus is likely to be more deadly than the virus itself.
Suicide, delayed healthcare, and other health conditions caused by loss of income, loss of social interactions, loss of purpose, etc, etc... yes it could easily add up to more than the covid toll (especially if you subtract out the covid victims who were on death's door anyway before the virus).
rickair7777 is offline  
Old 10-09-2020, 07:03 AM
  #39  
Perennial Reserve
 
Excargodog's Avatar
 
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,409
Default

Traditionally public health did not use death numbers as a primary metric because in the end EVERYBODY DIES. They use a metric of years of potential life lost (YPLL),

The rationale is that resources spent to save a 16 year old - who has a life expectancy of another 64 years - are better spent than the same resources being spent on an 80 year old who has a life expectancy of maybe 84 years.

By that metric, the Spanish Flu, which disproportionately affected Young healthy twenty and thirty-something’s, was far more serious than COVID - 19, which disproportionately affects people living in nursing homes and long term care facility residents

Last edited by Excargodog; 10-09-2020 at 07:45 AM.
Excargodog is offline  
Old 10-10-2020, 04:02 PM
  #40  
Line Holder
 
Joined APC: Aug 2020
Posts: 28
Default

Originally Posted by Brit43 View Post
I'm 18 and currently in college. Should i postpone my flight training? Any advice would be appreciated
You can't even get an ATP until you're 23. Nobody knows what the industry will look like in a year, let alone five. Learn from this event and decide if you really want to fly for a living. This will not be the only catastrophic event to happen. They tend to happen every 10 years or so.
Trappy is offline  
Related Topics
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
Opus
Major
46
04-04-2008 09:47 PM
Oldfreightdawg
Major
1
03-03-2008 06:43 PM
jelloy683
Major
9
08-03-2007 01:05 PM
jelloy683
Regional
3
08-02-2007 04:03 PM
aerospacepilot
Regional
59
07-01-2007 04:57 PM

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On


Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Your Privacy Choices