Truer words have never been spoken. 18 months ago, I mocked for leaving my regional to come to US Airways. I'm now a line holder on the Airbus (at a place where reserve was measured in decades as recently as 2 years ago) and am holding F/O on the 767 International (waiting to be trained). I'm also well on my way to working for the world's largest airline. Pay is quickly coming up and upgrades are coming down. It junior Captain isn't appealing, senior widebody F/O ain't too shabby.

 

Of the various factors affecting the quality of a career, right after luck and health are 1) when you're hired relative to a big hiring push, and b) how old you are.

Being young is nice, but what you want is to lead the pack. Hiring occurs in spurts. Imagine for example that a major hired 3000 pilots from 1996-2001, and didn't start again until 2007-2013, when 800 pilots were hired.

The junior 200 hire is only 1 number ahead o the first 2007 hire, and only 801 from the bottom guy, even though he has 13 years longevity. You don't want to be that guy. You want to be the 1996 hire. He never skipped a beat, had a possible upgrade in year 2, and was a widebody Captain about five years before the junior 20001 hire can even think of being the most junior Captain.

Moral of the story: get in line (any line) early.

Early is now. We're sitting on the cusp of an epic wave of hiring (right until the moment it gets interrupted), and the pilots that got hired at the 3 legacies this year are going to be envied and cursed for decades to come. The 2014 hires are going to be in almost as good a shape, because the hiring machine is completely spooled up yet.

The time, IMO, is now.

Good luck.

 

Isn't it already 2014? Apologies for adding nothing to the discussion.

 

Envied and cursed? Who does that? Everyone knows that it's all timing and luck in this industry and the seniority game. No one asks to be at the bottom of the hiring wave and then bam 9/11. Or bam everyone was treating their home mortgages like a credit card. Or the Middle East. Or oil.

 

No era has the number or retirements like the industry is facing today.

Approx. 47,000 in the industry with 16,500 retirements at the majors/LCC's in the next 8.5 yrs (Deutsche Bank Aviation Research data).

Even a 15% reduction (large furlough cycle percentage) tomorrow would be eaten up by retirements in the next 3.5-4 yrs.

 

I'm 43, and got hired at a legacy last year. I'll be here for at least 22 years assuming no change in retirement age, my health, etc. I will have the option--the option, not the obligation--to upgrade here. A lifer FO will still make several times what the median income is, and more than twice what I was making as a regional captain. I figure I will be able to hold a captain bid here (on reserve in the junior domicile) after 7 years, in any domicile on a narrow-body after 12, and as a lineholder somewhere for at least the last 10-15 years of my career. Even from one major to another, walking after one year is no big deal.

If he wants to go to a legacy carrier and can get hired, I'd say more power to him.

 

P.S. - Retirement/401(k) contributions alone make it smarter to be at a legacy. The LCC's are pretty behind on that.

 

This^^^^^^^ exactly!!!! Tell him to go to one of the majors at first opportunity. UAL is retiring half of its pilots in the next 15 years or so.

 

You're correct, of course. I wasn't saying people are scum for being lucky in their timing. You're focusing on the wrong part of the post.

I was simply using an image to say it's much better to be at the front of a hiring wave. It's like life handing you a winning lottery ticket, or finding out that you actually are the heir of Zamunda and you can have squads of beautiful girls to attend to your bathing needs. Or, for the female version, finding out that you have a fairy godmother, and you're going to the party to meet Clooney in your own, new Lambo Gallardo.

If you have any choice at all, you want to be there.

 

Nothing worse than hitting 65 and wondering, "What could have been." Make the jump!