Economics 301
06-20-2007, 06:12 AM
#1
Gets Weekends Off
Thread Starter
Joined APC: Apr 2007
Posts: 157
Economics 301
This must be Master's Level economics, so someone smarter than I, please explain:
March 2006 - UPS misses "Street Expectations" by a PENNY ( $.01) and the strock drops over seven dollars, or 11%, and continues to slide for a couple days, from $84 to $66 a share
June 20, 2007, 10:05 AM. According to CNBC, FDX misses "Street Expectations" (no figure given, yet) and the stock CLIMBS two and a half bucks, or 2.11%
This is a big WTF to me. Wall-Street darling-ism, like JBLU????
Thanks,
Rott
March 2006 - UPS misses "Street Expectations" by a PENNY ( $.01) and the strock drops over seven dollars, or 11%, and continues to slide for a couple days, from $84 to $66 a share
June 20, 2007, 10:05 AM. According to CNBC, FDX misses "Street Expectations" (no figure given, yet) and the stock CLIMBS two and a half bucks, or 2.11%
This is a big WTF to me. Wall-Street darling-ism, like JBLU????
Thanks,
Rott
06-20-2007, 06:40 AM
#4
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Position: CA 767
Posts: 402
WallStreet and Washington have always had a love affair with Fred. This is been known for some 20 years. He Hires Senators and Congressman. He hires the best and well connected lobbyists. Always has. He gets rights to China and the USPS.
UPS on the other hand can't do anything right in Washington. Mgmt. is all in breed Truck Drivers with UPS Brown Degrees. The only reason UPS is successful is because of their size. Just take a tour of Memphis. And then you'll see. Our Sim building is 80% Siding! If a Storm comes through it's going to collapse like a Trailer Park.
UPS on the other hand can't do anything right in Washington. Mgmt. is all in breed Truck Drivers with UPS Brown Degrees. The only reason UPS is successful is because of their size. Just take a tour of Memphis. And then you'll see. Our Sim building is 80% Siding! If a Storm comes through it's going to collapse like a Trailer Park.
06-20-2007, 06:52 AM
#5
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Posts: 305
06-20-2007, 06:53 AM
#6
Banned
Joined APC: Aug 2006
Posts: 258
The only reason UPS is successful is because of their size. Just take a tour of Memphis. And then you'll see. Our Sim building is 80% Siding! If a Storm comes through it's going to collapse like a Trailer Park.
...nonsequitur or in blog lingo ...wait...whaat?
...nonsequitur or in blog lingo ...wait...whaat?
06-21-2007, 12:26 PM
#7
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2005
Position: 757 Capt
Posts: 2,418
It's all based on the expectations. Very little rationality involved in how stock prices move.
No idea why UPS stockholders overreacted the way the did.
In the case of FedEx, if you look at a bunch of the most recent comments, a vocal few folks thought that FedEx was going to miss their earnings forecast by a bunch due to various factors.
And that expectation was already "priced" into the stock.
So when FedEx's earnings were inline with the forecast (1.96 vs the 1.93 to 2.08), and 4Q profit rose 7%, stock went up a bit because folks had been selling off expecting lower earnings and a drop in the stock price.
No relation at all to company performance.
No idea why UPS stockholders overreacted the way the did.
In the case of FedEx, if you look at a bunch of the most recent comments, a vocal few folks thought that FedEx was going to miss their earnings forecast by a bunch due to various factors.
And that expectation was already "priced" into the stock.
So when FedEx's earnings were inline with the forecast (1.96 vs the 1.93 to 2.08), and 4Q profit rose 7%, stock went up a bit because folks had been selling off expecting lower earnings and a drop in the stock price.
No relation at all to company performance.
06-21-2007, 02:05 PM
#8
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Aug 2006
Posts: 3,931
Lots and Lots of variables.
If institutional investors are favoring transportation stocks in a certain month you will see the stocks go up over time. Could be before or after an earnings announcement.
An earnings announcement, if not a real surprise, is often just a trigger for stock movement. The factors for its movement could be totally unrelated.
I figure there is a lot positive thinking about calender year 2008 for FedEx.
The question is, if you buy into a good 2008 and possibly 2009, when do you get into the stock? Now or later in the year?
Incidentally, UPS has been going up too.
If institutional investors are favoring transportation stocks in a certain month you will see the stocks go up over time. Could be before or after an earnings announcement.
An earnings announcement, if not a real surprise, is often just a trigger for stock movement. The factors for its movement could be totally unrelated.
I figure there is a lot positive thinking about calender year 2008 for FedEx.
The question is, if you buy into a good 2008 and possibly 2009, when do you get into the stock? Now or later in the year?
Incidentally, UPS has been going up too.
06-21-2007, 07:48 PM
#10
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jun 2007
Position: 757/767
Posts: 890
Originally Posted by bravo24
I have an MBA and I can't explain it. Must have something to do with the combined effects of the phase of the moon, the average temperature for the month of May in Baku, and Hillary's PMS level.
