And yet again....OH NOOOOOO the sky is falling! There are just a shade under 3000 on property and @250 in ANC now. @ 700 have been hired since
'04. So maybe another 350 to ANC? I'm not following your math about any new hire except the '04 guys. The ANC base is a cluster right now, I don't think they can handle more than 400 total up there for the forseeable future.

Yes, I have to agree, 600 sounds like alot for the training folks to handle right now. But you never know...

I'll go to ANC, just give me the psych assessment and interview. Bring it on!

Why would the on-line application still be open?

Here's a rough breakdown of the most junior 500 pilots at UPS in 100 pilot blocks with the hire date for the most junior pilot within that block of 100 - although not scientific by any means, it's useful for showing the 'big picture.'

Bottom 100 - 10/01/07 (~53 in ANC)
Next 100 - 05/16/07 (~56 in ANC)
Next 100 - 01/16/07 (~5 in ANC)
Next 100 - 09/12/06 (~5 in ANC)
Next 100 - 10/25/05 (~5 in ANC)

That's not even close to being true. Mid-2006 and later newhires are the ones vulnerable for displacement to the North. Remember that a substantial portion of those in ANC are captains. We've hired @550 since 2004.

Agreed, I think that anyone hired past mid 2006 is at risk of going.

600 in ANC ? Are we planning on taking over Alaska Airlines ???

All we need is to qualify all the new hires hired for the domicile. In the current bid package almost 55 out of 113 F/Os were not qualified to bid. That is roughly half.

Unless you know of some massive marketing plan to buy and put in ANC, 15 more MD11s and have them next year (doubtful) and pickup 20 more 747-400 next year then the 600 number is pie in the sky.

First off, where are you going to park the airplanes, during most pushes we only have 3-4 open parking positions. We would need to double the parking positions from 12 to approx 22.

Second, by year's end we will have approximately 220 pilots based in ANC (150 F/Os and almost 70 Cpts). I find it hard to believe we are going to displace to/hire 380 more pilots to ANC.

Lions, tigers and bears, oh my...but I don't see 600 in ANC for quite a few years.

Time will tell....

As far as suspending hiring, I'd agree with that. With getting to know the 747-400, the backlog in MD11 training and the upcoming displacement bid, the training dept will be up to it's eyeballs in alligators for awhile. So yes, new hire training might be put off until the log jam is alleviated.

Again, just my two cents, your mileage may vary under certain conditions......

FF

Hey FliFast,

Well thought-out and rational posts like that are not allowed here because they don't scare people. Good post! :)

(Disclaimer: We are talking about UPS, so all bets are out the window when it comes to common sense!)

Does it matter where you park the airplanes when you're deciding where to park the crews?

LOL! Thanks for the calorie-burning exercise.