Future Hiring Data Analysis
 

[php]
Oct-07 B727 B757 Airbus DC10 MD11 Total Sum
Capt 365 0 682 166 928 2141 4763
FO 327 0 583 138 978 2026
SO 430 166 596

May-08 B727 B757 Airbus DC10 MD11 Total Sum
Capt 329 11 704 108 984 2135 4662
FO 294 10 602 90 1037 2032
SO 387 108 495

May-09 B727 B757 Airbus DC10 MD11 Total Sum
Capt 299 58 747 33 1063 2201 4694
FO 268 52 639 28 1120 2107
SO 353 33 386

May-10 B727 B757 Airbus DC10 MD11 B777 Total Sum
Capt 259 117 753 0 1110 40 2279 4778
FO 232 105 644 0 1170 43 2193
SO 305 0 305
[/php]

Ok....

So... I must not have my "glasses" on but what does all this mean?

Thanks

Whale

Had some extra time on a layover, so I put a few numbers into excel. These are based on current and future fleet plans and current crew ratios. I also took the recent FDA posting manning into account.

Just a few interesting assumptions. It looks like the total number of pilots on campus will remain the same through mid 2010 at least. The number of SO's is cut in half from 600 to 300. Most of those are going to be over 60, so a lot will depend on the change in retirement age.

It looks like we fell about 50 short on FDA manning. Therefore, we should expect 50 or so to be hired, which will put us further overmanned. If the retirement age does not change, then we will eventually need to fill 1 new hire per 1 retirement. I think we are going to average about 200 retirements per year over the next several years. If the age changes, then we will most likely see less retirements and less hiring.

Bottom line, we want the best pilots on campus we can get. Still, before you sign on to being hired make sure you are willing to be overseas for 5-10 years until you get enough seniority to bid back to the states.

Hope this helps

So, let me see if I understand your point. You projected the fleet schedule forward, then just multiplied the current manning per seat to come up with there numbers? Interesting. I agree with the overall "well manned" conclusion, overall. Retirements, and which seat it's coming form is the next question. Alignment bids/slight progression toward retiring CAP seats might be the norm for a couple of years. I'm glad I'm where I'm at, already. Looks like the BUS will grow some.

OK, nice work and thanks for sharing --- however --- I think you shouldn't apply the current 727 SO to 727 acft ratio to future 727 fleet sizes because the company is waaaaaay overmanned in the back of the Boeing and will work to whittle this down (...IMHO of course)

On the other hand, that is the one seat they can't fully control because age 60 guys can automatically go to the back without company recourse.

Generally speaking, I agree with your analysis and that's why the poolies looking at the FDAs need to make sure they will be happy/content living there for quite some time (i.e 3-5 yrs +)

As one of my favorite business school/forecasting professors once said --- "All models are wrong, but some are useful"

Thanks again.

What the...? Did the porn site break? <smiley>

Yes, I just took the fleet plan from the web and multiplied them by the crew ratios. If you look at the latest fleet plan, the total combined fleet of (DC-10/MD-10/MD-11s) stays pretty much constant. We are projected to add a few more Buses, so hence the increased numbers in crewing them. I ran a few other numbers like specific domicile populations, but those numbers are not really for public consumption in my opinion.

I just couldn't believe that we were overmanned, but after running the numbers and age 60 looming it appears that is true. I felt if I was waiting for a job at FedEx I would want to know what I was getting myself into. As a side note, I think I would still make the decision to join FedEx even if it meant going to Hong Kong for 5 or more years. My family and I are happy and blessed to be here.

That's hilarious! Perhaps, the best pilos on campus with 3 internal LORs who have actually flown with you (near impossible) and a sponsor who has actually flown with you etc.....

Sorry about your difficulties getting hired. If it helps, I only had 2 LOR's. One was from a previous supervisor and one from someone I had actually flown with (my sponsor). Also, I did not do a meet and greet. FedEx, in my opinion, is very fair in their analysis of prospective employees. The quality of pilots with whom I have flown is impressive and their backgrounds varied. Most pilots are a valued asset to FedEx and have built the trust of the public in getting the job done.

This analysis was simply shared for the benefit of those that wish to get hired so that they might make alternate plans if they are waiting for the "hiring gates to open up" or an informed decision if they actally get the call from KD. Also, I hope it gives current FedEx pilots an idea of seat progression and manning numbers so they can better plan for their futures with the company.

Blue Skies

Which should have been snuffed out in the last contract, but I digress.

I hope they don't think they will get to go back to a front seat in the same way. The current policy sets a bad precedent. Seat movement in any direction should ONLY occur with a vacancy announcement.

Sorry for the thread creep. Thanks for the numbers Trap. Interesting.