So, there are roughly 130 UPS F/Es over 60 but under 63. The remainder are NB or over 63 (i.e. they will likely be offered incentive not to retrain). Therefore I would consider these 130 F/Es to be "in play". Assuming (worst case for us junior folks) they all decide to fly up front again I see two basic plots (with many subplot options):

Plot #1 (most likely): The 130 in play take Capt positions throughout the fleet moving just about everyone else down a few pegs. If you are in the bottom 130 of the seniority list you are vulnerable to be displaced to an F/E position. If you were one of the last 130 to be awarded Capt, you are vulnerable to be bumped back to F/O. The ripple down effect would be a huge number of retraining events.

Variations and questions with Plot #1:
A. Will some folks choose F/E positions in SDF over ANC F/O slots leaving ANC F/O slots even for the bottom dwellers of the seniority list?
B. How long would it take to move the 130 back to the front? Some are still qualified...others would need retraining. If it took awhile, the number of F/E positions would continue to shrink with the DC8 and 74 classic drawdown and the number of folks reaching 63+ would continue to rise minimizing the overall effect.

Plot #2 (wishful thinkning perhaps) : The 130 in play move to the front creating vacant F/E positions. UPS HIRES 130 folks in short order to fill the F/E positions and leaves all the recent newhire F/Os and Capt upgrades in place. This would answer the overall system pilot shortage while relieving some of the demand on the traiing center (much less retraining since there would be less "ripple down" displacements).

So, maybe we'll see a new job posting for F/Es?

Anyway...I'm just floating a couple of ideas and am happy to hear if any of this logic is valid.

 

A) yes, some will
B) everything around here takes a long time! Just opening and closing the bids will take months
#2- we have so many engineers that I don't see them hiring one for one replacements

Consider too that some of these herpes guys will be coming back as FO's to gain better seniority. Everyone that hit 60 wasn't senior.

 

Doubt any hiring will occur to the S/O seat. Why?
The 8 is the last legacy left without an end date. The 74 classics have an end date. UPS will pay the new seat to have the S/O's they need on that fleet there until it goes away. How about the 8, they plan on drawing down on the 8 fleet next year anyway as more airfames get sidelined. They have way to many S/O's now anyway. Believe many of the NB's will return.
What about the 90 they will need in 2009 and beyond? Easy, as more of the folks turn 65 and still want to stay, they will go to the only place available. The 8 S/O seat. There are enough of these folks too never need hiring into the 8 S/O seat. I almost doubt that any under 60 crew will be downbid to the S/O seat as well. If it does, a very, very few. (maybe 5-6). Every year after 2009 they will be drawing crews down on the 8.

 

First: UPS will not have a displacment bid to award the over 60 crowd their due seats. They will be allowed to move to open seats (Non-displaced guys ie dc8)as vacancy bid arise. The 747 guys have all the displacement rights they want and can take any seat they can hold. So really the only people to worry about is the 74 guys since the dc8 guys will take open seats.
Second: If you are junior and are in ANC, plan on staying thier awile. As 76's and other aircraft show up in 08 and 09 these guys (dc8) will take the open seats. Also, remember if UPS doesn't need the lift they will start getting rid of the 8 as other ac come on line. If they need the lift only the dc8's that are due haeavy c checks will be retired.
Third: Remember for what its worth that Rick Barr said last week in ONT that if 65 changed then they would only hire 50 guys in 08. I know what is said today means very little tomorrow, but he did address the issue, so it has probably been brought up in man-power planning meetings as a possible sceniro.
Fourth: Worst case not include war with Iran or World economic melt down is that the guys in ANC who don't want to be/live thier will be their for a long time, and more folks will be sent to anc that may have been safe prior to the new law.
Fifth: What can you really do. Our fate is not in our hands, it could be worse, you could be at a carrier that does not have a pension to lure guys to retire and guys stay to get five more years of 401K contributions and your airline does not fly international so you are totaly exposed to the US domestic slowdown/recession mess that is coming on the horizon, or some poor SOB walking the streets of Iraq for our honest and pure hearted leaders in Washington. It could be alot worse. So stop your belly aching and enjoy your job and be thankful for it and enjoy life.

 

I agree, we all need to worry right now about the 74 guys. Unless UPS decides to draw down the 8 by 50 or so, the 8 guys are stuck until a vacancy opens up(ANC). I just don't see UPS doing anything with the 8 in 08 for the simple reason that the retraing ripple affect would simply crush the training center. But, as I was told by manager today, there are just too many variables right now to even speculate what $hit sandwich most of us are about to take a bite of. Hold your nose though, because it is coming.

 

IMHO, UPS will never hire into the FE seat again...ever. Just my opinion, but very likely considering that we still have a good number of PFEs on the whale and well many well over age 65 guys left.

 

Not entirely, UPS has said that we have to many SO on the DC8 and had planned to decrease the number. Now they can have a displacement bid on the DC8 SO and the displaced pilots can bid on anything that they want.

A displaced SO would then displace a Captain, the Captain would have to bid ANC or take an FO spot. The FO would have to then take a ANC spot or anything that might be left in any other domicile.

UPS is going to have their hands full for the next year or two just retraining everyone. UPS must really like sending pilot to training.

 

really? I am in my 5th or 6th month and I am in my second school and I barely flew 100 hours....

maybe I am getting to old or slow but it seems fast enough for me......

 

The process that got you in that predicament took a long time

 

"really? I am in my 5th or 6th month and I am in my second school and I barely flew 100 hours....

maybe I am getting to old or slow but it seems fast enough for me......"

FrontSeat,
Welcome to ANC! I will be vacating this crashpad at the end of January--need a place to stay?

Were you in my 2 Jul class?