Posting 08-01 Food for Thought...
 

Just thinking about how Posting 08-01 will play out, and wanted to throw this out for some general thoughts. (Let me preface this by saying that I'm not on a witch hunt, nor do I want to start an Over 60 bashing thread...just trying to think how I would react if over 60 and getting paid as an S/O).

There are 77 Capt positions open for Wide/Narrow Bodies when you only count MEM/LAX/ANC; we currently have over 150 Over 60 guys waiting to get back to the left seat. We have an additional 20 right seats open for the 75 in MEM, for a total of 97 seats with a view that don't require you to go to either CDG or HKG. ASSUMING that the majority of the Over 60 crowd would rather be paid as Capts or FO's, what is the likelihood that EVERY CONUS (& ANC) seat gets filled by an over 60 guy? I can't believe that if we are overmanned, the company would be willing to offer passover pay for the over 60 guys if they are still "young" enough to go through training (i.e. not within 18 months of turning 65). Does this sound plausible? (Sorry, too much MythBusters....)

To take it one step further, and say that maybe the company decides to have a few secondary vacancies filled, wouldn't those front seats even be likely targets for the Over 60 crowd as well?

Unless my assumptions about an Over 60 guy's desire to get back to a window seat (and a bigger pay rate) are way off, it wouldn't surprise me to see every MEM/LAX/ANC front seat filled in Posting 08-01 by an Over 60 crewmember. Thoughts?

I concur with much of your analysis, with the added point that bringing a guy off an over-manned panel means no secondary to fill. My prediction: Net movement on most lists will be very small.

Losers: Guys close to upgrade who are now stuck just short of their goal. Guys (ahem!) who stayed on the N/B for Q of life and now may be locked out of a wide-body for some time. Guys excessed off the -10 to ANC who thought they'd not "really" have to go but could instead move back to MEM on the subsequent bid.

Winners. Back seat LCA. Still getting passover. Moving UP on the list--for the first time in about 3 years.

I wonder just how many of the over 60 guys can even hold WB Capt. I'm sure it is a majority of them, but it can't be all of them. Has anyone looked at their overall seniority? I would look into it, but just don't have the time.....

Practice bids will hint, and final bid will let us know the score. Predicting the future playing the VIPS numbers is probably futile.

If your numbers are correct I think there is a 100% chance of all US domiciled window seats (both primary and secondary vacancies) will be filled by the over 60 crowd.

If an over 60 guys gets a right seat he should put over 60 Captains on his positive airman list and enjoy using some of the advantages of lots of substitution.

If you don't mind, I'll give my shot here. First of all, the Over 60 guys have just won the lottery again> The first time was when they got hired here, the second tme was when they got a second chance to get back to the front seat. I won't go into the bashing, becasue not every guy over 60 petitioned Congress, bashed the young guys on ACP, or had virtually anythng to do with the law change. Kinda like the Senior Tour. It sucks that when Jack and Arnie were building the tour back in the 60's and 70's they played for a fraction of what the guys are today. Unfair, maybe. But you know what, sh1t happens.
I think the bid will play out just like the Company and Union wanted it to. All the sub 63 crew members get "their" seat back, the Company saves all that retirement money, the A fund is over funded now, and they fill a posting without really doing much and the Union gets it's "ethical" solution that was so important to DW. . I thought the FDA's wouldl be filled by new hires regardlesss of how good you made the LOA but with the stagnation now upon us, I think we'll see a lot of guys who were sitting on the fence and see a plumbers life ahead of them go to the FDA and suck it up.
I don't think all the over 60 guys will stay till 65. I think most of the guys who have 25 years at that point will go at 60 or so. They have planned for this time for years and realize that the longer you work, the less of Fred's money you'll spend after you retire. So assuming 60 per cent stay, you have a 2-3 year longer seat progression schedule.
I'm not sure all the guys in the back seat can even hold the left seat. I know for sure a few that are very junior FO's that are in the back seat. It would be curious to see those nubers, but I'm too lazy to do it.

Suck it up? Why should we have to do that. That is no way to start your career at a place that well had the means to make the FDA's more inviting. They skimped here as we all know; and I am sure not "sucking it up" for the betterment of the corporation.

So, you may be right...but you may be wrong. First of all it is the principle. Many of us could not vote on the LOA, but I have talked to many who would have had no qualms voting "no" despite the influential talk from thour MEC.
Second, I cannot see how the 2nd or 3rd year pay in an FDA can compare to the 2nd or 3rd year pay as an SO. I am not going to crunch numbers that have been done already. But I still take a plumber's life and pay versus the uncertainties and cost of going to an FDA. In addition, what if you jump for an FDA and then have no ability to bid back stateside for 4+ years? Which is very likely.

We'll have to see if you are right. It is the principle not to $uck, though.

I don't think any of the F/O slots and only some of the 757 Capt slots will be filled by the over 60 crowd. Unless, that is all their seniority would allow them to hold.

They will just wait for the upcoming excess bid, and go where they want. This seems like a no-brainer.

Better keep your day job, 'cause those boys in Biloxi sure don't plan on taking you back! ;)

Great tour, great guys...and a wonderful time for my girl. Most of them didn't even talk trash about you...

crystal ball
 

There has to be better things to do than sit around and stew about this.

Put in your bid and watch, not a darn thing else you can do.