Did UPS screw up?
 

Reading the ANC meeting notes really breaks my heart. Going from adding 35 airframes had DHL gone through to the talk of furloughs today really has me upset. Now my sorrow is turning toward frustration toward those that brought this upon us. (Sorry ABX/Astar - I know you're in worse shape than any UPS pilot, but I'm a little narcissistic. Gotta watch out for #1) I think the Ohio elected officials only did what they are paid to do - watch out for their voters. We all know now in the long run it only hurt the economy more (net loss of 35,000 jobs instead of 8,000). Which leads me to conclude - DID THE ALL-MIGHTY UPS ACTUALLY SCREW UP THIS DEAL?

I think the May 28 announcement was premature and gave those forces opposing the deal plenty of time to make their case, and stop the deal, which they effectively did. Plus big brown's announcement stating "DHL has no other alternative" leads me to believe my employer was getting a little too big for it's own britches during negotiations. In the end, Wilmington will still close. Astar/ABX will be no better off and an additional 27,000 DHL workers will now be out of work.

Remember, this does not just affect the junior UPS pilot. The top 300 FO's just saw their captain bid evaporate. Junior seniority captains and FO's saw the opportunity for better schedules dissolve. Pool swimmers saw the opportunity to work for brown get pushed back another 12, 18, 24+ months. And yes - the botton 200 who are sweating a furlough would be sleeping soundly at night with another 300 below them. (Disclaimer - I am one of those who truly believe UPS will NOT furlough.)

I really have to say, all in all, UPS has made some pretty smart moves in it's 101 year history. But this one will go down in the history books as a big, huge blunder. As a lowly line pilot, I think UPS should not have announced the deal until the ink was dry on the contract. Maybe it wouldn't have helped. We'll never know.

Way to go ATL!

Rott

You are missing the big picture. After the dust settles, we lose a key player that has competed with lower prices. Both UPS and Fedex are desparately looking to pick up additional business which wasn't available until recently. UPS will probably pick up about half of the business that DHL left behind. Delivery prices will go up. In the long run, things will be better off than the original agreement UPS made with DHL.

Blaming the Ohio legislators, UPS, DHL, and others, will not bring the agreement back. I am not sure why you want to dwell on it.

And, you are right, there are hundreds of our fellow pilots out of work. They have it much worse than us and the job market is absolutely terrible now. Furlough rumors at UPS and Fedex are just that, rumors.

Awwwwwwwww........I feel really bad for you. Really, I do!:rolleyes:

Did we announce it or did DHL? I seem to recall it being their doing for a shareholder meeting.

Don't forget the best part: FedEx is also negotiating with DHL now for the new deal.

Well, they were the first ones to negotiate with DHL when we announced our deal so maybe now it's their turn... :rolleyes:

Won't that be somethin when FedEx and DHL announce a deal within the next week or so?

I wonder if those two (DHL/FedEx) had planned this the whole time?

Let UPS take all the heat, spend all the money lobbying congress, spend all the time and get distracted for close to a year, and in the end UPS gets squeezed out anyway.

Some FedEx types already think the FedEx/DHL deal is inked and will be announced any day now.

I also heard the Jimmy Hoffa(Sr) will head the MEC and Elvis will be the new Chief Pilot...

Try to keep your eye on the ball. When DHL started pulling out, the free market was on their US domestic market share like a flock of vultures.
The only thing they have left to bargain over is who gets to control the entrance and exit of their international flow through the US.
That is what any deal will be about, they can't control the domestic US market.
The politicos were never players, just noise makers. To their credit, they did sing on cue, just as they were paid to do.

To answer the question, Did UPS screw up?

Well, a few months ago they had a $10 billion dollar contract, and today they don't. I'd say someone screwed up!

I wonder who is responsible to UPS for losing $10 billion?

Hi!

I was just in SDF the other day, parked in the NE cargo ramp, waiting to fly back to YIP. We just found out we'd be fired/downsized/terminated when we got back.

I was watching the UPS planes landing, and was very jealous. It is nice to be somewhere that is a great place to work, with good work rules, good pay, and as stable as possible.

Maybe someday I'll be able to fly at UPS, but I'm not holding my breath.

The top two hiring companies that I've found, for my situation, are Mesaba and GoJet. I am hoping I can get an interview for at least one of those two.

Which is better: Hoping for Mesaba or GoJet, or flying at UPS?

cliff
YIP

I'd definitely go with GoJet. Nice airplanes!

I won't have to wear brown, it clashes with my fur.

You need to ask? Whenever I have shot a game animal or boated a beautiful fish, I always respected the lifeform and always carefully opened them up with a razor sharp knife and saw the silvery purple entrails, sometimes their heart was still beating. We really are sensitive.

FR8K9,
I take responsibility, ;) didn't think we would really get any extra pilot flying here so decided to try to help my ABX/Astar buds. I blew it. Sorry to all.
Fortunately as a line dude I still have my job <g> unlike my buds <ng>

USA Jet
 

Cliff -

As a DC-9 capt working in YIP, sound like you're a USA Jetter. If that is correct, what's going on with "Marty's Airline?" I was shocked to hear they're down to 5 DC-9's. They were the best gig in a rotten profession during my day.

Rott

Thanks for that correction, hope you feel better and please excuse me for not commiserating properly. Let me know how that works out for you.


Since DHL has no deal with UPS or FEDEX and none of us know the terms offered, I think it is fair to say that no deal is the best path right now.

That would be the Astar pilot group. They seemed to have the biggest set of stones during all this can probably take the most credit for really stirring the pot when this bag of crap was thrown into their crew room.

So, to whoever is whinning about not getting their UPS upgrade... maybe you and the Astar guys can meet at the bar and discuss your situation. I would bet that they would even buy the first round.

I'm sure all the DHL drivers that are out of work appreciate it too!

Nice work. :rolleyes:

I'm sure you are crying in your beer every night thinking about those poor drivers...

Did UPS Screw Up ?

I think just the title of the thread is combustible enough to set my jockey shorts on fire.

If you're reading the notes from the meeting and making that conclusion, no offense, but that involves a lot of conjecture and opinion to fill in many of the blanks between what was transcribed from the meeting and what was actually said. We are ALL entitled to our opinions, and the original poster certaintly makes valid points.

I was actually at the meeting.

The only thing that UPS screwed up that day was not getting Krispy Kreme donuts instead of the chalk board erasers that were provided.

My two cents on the DHL deal is that it involves an enomorous amount of complexities that make it a difficult deal to close. It's not like selling your airport car to some skateboarding teenager. Just consider, the logistical nightmare, along with the political influences, along with the acquisition/training/maint. of adding aircraft to our fleet and then place it side-by-side with the fact that we are competiting with the hand that is feeding us.

With all that hot air being said, I got the impression that the ACTUAL scenario of what the deal will look like is about as clear as mud and is being influenced by the direction of the economy-another mudpie that is hard to predict these days.

IMHO, the political pandering and stalling of the legislatures had some effect on closing the deal, but listening to the speakers at the meeting gave me the impression that the complexity of the deal, given the uncertainty of this roller-coaster economy was the largest factor in signing the contract.

That's just what I heard, I encourage others to throw their two cents in.

FF

No doubt they are just as worried about us as we are about them.:)

Yeah, you're right. Who cares about those people. They are not pilots like us. Who cares about their families and all their kids, just so long as the ASTAR pilots got to show everyone how big their 'stones' are. :rolleyes:

ASTAR sure showed everybody! If ASTAR is going down, they are taking the whole @%$& company down with them! Nice work guys! :rolleyes:

FBP,

I have a different opinion that yours. No offense to the ASTAR pilots, but in my opinion, they didn't have enough stones to toss, to stop this deal. Did they fight for their jobs, sure... I did the same thing when my former airline was acquired then gutted.

My point, when it comes to saying who is to blame for us not landing the $10 billion dollar whopper, I'd have to say from listening to the head honchos at the meeting that this deal was/is a moving target and ATL is going to be dang sure about "pulling the trigger" given the fact that we are in a very unstable economic arena.

This is a deal that has very pronounced ramifications if done correctly or screwed up. I don't know nor concern myself with what they do in ATL, but like was told to me by passengers when I used to fly them, "Don't screw up the landing".

Just another perspective to add to yours,

FF

Thanks FR8K9! We do try. What I find hilarious is that you go on pretending that the DHL ground network would actually remain intact post deal. Get real.

Oh come on, you care about one thing, and that is yourself.

What happened to your insights about the agreement? Didn't you say it would be larger than expected? A done deal? Should I go on? Maybe you aren't quite as smart as you thought you were???

You are just ****ed that you didn't gain as much as you wanted while the guys at DHL lose their jobs. Karma is a *****....

Right on!

You guys kicked some serious butt!! You took down the whole dang company!

Yeah, I was wrong for sure. I had no idea that you guys were so willing to burn the whole thing to the ground.

Boy was I wrong.

Nice work!! So much for UPS needing 35 new airframes and hiring pilots and all that. As long as everyone is miserable though. :D

:rolleyes:

Before you blow yourself out, you just might want to wait for that proverbial fat lady....:D

jungle,

Not sure what fat lady you are talking about, but if you are insinuating that I work for DHL, you are wrong again...

While I appreciate your admiration, I think that what actually killed it is simple. It is too complicated a deal for either side to be comfortable with from a contractual perspective. Further, once DPWN came out with their statements at the May 28 conference call that they were doing a deal with UPS and "there is no other alternative", US companies as we all saw immediately began going to both UPS and FedEx in droves. No surprise there. Why go with DHL when UPS is really doing all the work? If I were a customer, I'd ditch them too. The market has spoken.

No such luck, the fat lady is the one who signals the end of the opera. She hasn't made an appearance yet. The deal is still on the table, it is just taking longer than anyone thought and it remains a moving target. Try to keep up.:)

Just my humble opinion, but here is what I think.

Is it possible to become the world's largest, most successful integrated shipper with a 100+ year history by "screwing up"? No, it is not.

A lot of people are doing a lot of speculation and jumping to conclusions without fully knowing or understanding what is happening behind closed doors. Say what you want about management, but the people who run the show are not stupid - not just my opinion, but rather a statement of fact based on year-over-year financial results.

I'm just a line pilot, so to speculate about what may or may not be happening and why or why not far exceeds my pay grade. I move the jet from point A to point B in accordance with the rules. However, if I may make one speculation it is this: if a contract is or isn't agreed upon, I believe there is a very good reason(s) for it. I don't think "screwing up" is one of them.

Nah, I think it was all the pressure you guys and ALPA put on the politicos that killed the deal or at least delayed it for so long that DHL had no choice but to close down the US operation.

Don't sell yourselves so short. :D

It's a crappy situation for you guys to be in. I personally think you should have tried to get hired by UPS instead of burning down the house. At least one airline would have been hiring when ASTAR pilots started looking for work.

Now UPS doesn't need 35 airplanes, and by all accounts ASTAR pilots will be looking for work anyway.

At least you showed your big stones.

Excellent post. It isn't over yet by a long shot. When DHL and UPS or FEDEX announce a deal or the end of negotiations, then you can call an end. Not before.

Thanks Jungle! :)

And as your post eludes to, it isn't over until the proverbial fat lady sings. And for all we know, she may not even be in the building.

It might not be over, but the original deal is done! DHL is closing down. Tens of thousands of drivers are being laid off if they haven't been laid off already. ABX is laying off thousands. ASTAR is next.

Guys, the deal is a fraction of what it used to be. And now FedEx is there too.

I'd say the fat lady has already sung when DHL left. The fat lady has left the building too.

As hvydrver has already pointed out, the market has already taken DHL's domestic share. This really would not have been controlled by any agreement, unless you think they could have denied consumer choice of carrier. DHL only held about 10% of the US market on their best day.
The prize and the highest margin business goes to the carrier selected to handle DHL's international flows into and out of the US.

That 10% of the domestic market helped keep revenues down for Fedex and UPS. This is the real advantage of DHL getting out of the domestic shipping market. It has been a near zero growth market for years, but now there is some growth for the two remaining players plus increased pricing power.

Why make a portion of profits (agreement with DHL), when you keep all of it for yourself? Both UPS and Fedex will be much healthier as a result.

As for who moves DHL international freight, I hope they keep ABX and/or ASTAR. While I would like the extra flying, I would rather see them mitigate some job losses.

Agreed, and don't forget DHL's 49% of Polar.

FR8K9,

I suppose you're right. We do have big ones. On a serious note though, ask yourself this. Your manglement said that there would have been 35 a/c added if the DHL deal was consummated. DHL's domestic product has now evaporated. So, presuming that it all went to UPS and FedEx, why is your company not hiring and bringing a/c out of storage? Most analysts say it was essentially a 50/50 split between the big two. As I've said before, UPS' network could take DHL's revenues without a hiccup. He's playing you guys. And you're falling for it hook, line, and sinker.